This week the stock market had a smooth ride up the roller-coaster and stayed at the top with a solid weekly gain exceeding 2%. Even with deteriorating internals the market shook off the prior week’s losses and made new highs. Thursday was the big day this week with big gains in all the indexes. Where we go from here is what the financial news stations are talking about. As we enter the seasonally weak period starting in May the market may correct at that point.
For the week, all the major averages showed gains. The NASDAQ Composite led the way up 2.84%, followed by the S&P 500 up 2.29%, and the blue chip DJIA up 2.06%. This week the more speculative issues had the better performance.
Indicator Review – No Changes
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator is on a new BUY signal as of the Thursday closing price, as the MACD had a positive crossover. (Refer to first chart). Notice that the NASDAQ Composite had easily surpassed the 3200 and 3260 levels.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April 10th bullish reading of 19.3% was down a whopping 16.2 percentage points from the April 3rd bullish reading of 35.5%. The magnitude of this drop is very rare on a weekly basis, especially since the market is rising steadily. Nevertheless, this indicator remains on its SELL signal from January 31st. However, if this indicator has a reading greater than 25% in any subsequent week then it would result in a BUY signal on this indicator.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. The indicator remains on its SELL signal as of March 25 as the MACD had a negative crossover, thus confirming the Summation Index crossover below its 5 day-ema. (Refer to second chart)
Dashboard on a “2” NEUTRAL signal
The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDH2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 1.55% which is well below that of the three major indexes which advanced in this past week. Year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 8.95%, S&P 500 is up 11.20%, and the DJIA is up 13.21%.
The stock market did not have any trouble making headway this week as the NASDAQ Composite became the leader and the DJIA became the laggard. Interestingly, gold experienced a big drop on Friday and is on fresh 2013 lows.
Whether the market can continue to advance in light of possible negative news remains to be seen. For now the uptrend is intact, and the Dashboard is on a NEUTRAL signal. Be patient.