A blog post

Dashboard on “3” April 25 BUY Signal

Posted on the 27 April, 2013 at 2:26 pm Written by in Blog

COMP April26, 2013Market Review

As reported in this past Thursday night’s blog, the Dashboard is now on a “3” BUY signal as Indicator #5 had a positive MACD crossover.  The market had a positive week after the previous week’s 2+ percent decline. Since last Friday the market has shown strength and is powering ahead although not all market averages are following exactly.  While the NASDAQ Composite is leading the way forward, the S&P 500 and DJIA are lagging behind a bit, but the DJ Transports and Russell 2000 small-cap stocks are further behind.

For the week, all the major averages showed gains.  The NASDAQ Composite led the way up with a gain of 2.14%, followed by the S&P 500 up 1.74%, and the blue chip DJIA up the least at 1.13%.  This week the number of NYSE stocks making 52-week highs totaled 570 with new 52-week lows at 75.  This showing was improved from the previous week, but new highs are still below the levels of the week ending March 8 (734 new highs) and March 15 (718).

NASI April 26, 2013

Indicator Review

This week indicator #5 had a positive signal change and #8 is nearing a positive signal change:

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator is now on a new BUY signal as of its April 25th (Thursday) closing price as the MACD had a positive crossover. (Refer to first chart).  

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April 24th bullish reading of 28.3% was up 1.4 percentage points from the April 17th bullish reading of 26.8%.  This indicator remains on its BUY signal as of April 18th the release date of the survey.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The indicator remains on its SELL signal as of March 25, buy is nearing a BUY signal, as the Index has crossed over its 5 day-ema on Thursday, but the MACD has not yet done so.  (Refer to second chart).

Dashboard Remains a “3” BUYl

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-April 26, 2013

A chart of the Dashboard signals is presented at the following link:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDH2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 0.85% which is well below that of the three major indexes.  Year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 8.60%, S&P 500 is up 10.94%, and the DJIA is up 12.27%.

Top 5 ETFs

The Top 5 ETFs that passed the test were purchased on the open on Friday.  The table with the data is provided here:

Top 5 ETF Tracking April 26, 2013

Conclusion

The NASDAQ Composite is closing in on the 3000 which it has previously touched twice before this month (refer to first chart).  We’ll see if that level acts as resistance or whether the index will blast through that level for further gains.  The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the DJIA are a few percentage points away from exceeding their yearly highs that were attained a few weeks ago.

The current gains may be the beginning of a further rise in prices or may result in the overdue correction.  Based on the market’s seasonally weak six-month period beginning on May 1, the odds favor a decline going forward, but that does not mean a further advance will not occur.  So be extremely cautious here.  

         Stop LIMIT Orders

For those investors that are long the market tight consider using stop LIMIT orders, such as 3% are suggested to protect principal. 

Remember that if the market suddenly drops, as it did this week due to false twitter news, the stop LIMIT order will only be hit if the market hits the limit price on the way down.  If the price suddenly falls 4% for example, then your 3% stop limit will not be executed.  However, if the stock then reverses up and hits your stop LIMIT price your position will be sold out.  If you decide to use regular stops without a limit price, then you would have been sold out at 4% below the market in the example above.  If you need more information on stop orders then refer to www.investopedia.com and review the definitions of stop loss order and stop limit orders.  Make sure you understand  how these orders work.

 

some comments

There are currently 2 of them
  1. Drew 29 April 2013 at 12:07 am permalink

    Thanks, Les, for regularly updating this blog. I really appreciate it.

    FYI, the Dark Liquidity URL you’ve posted above is in error. I believe the correct URL is:

    http://dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php

    • Les Masonson 29 April 2013 at 9:10 am permalink

      Drew,

      Thanks for your positive comments. Yes you are correct on the Dark-Liquidity link. I didn’t realize it had changed. I’ll correct it on the next weekend post.