A blog post

Dashboard Remains on “1” SELL Signal Issued on December 12

Posted on the 14 December, 2013 at 3:02 pm Written by in Blog

COMP December 13 2013

Market Review

The stock market experienced a losing week with the three major averages tumbling more than least 1.50%.This is the first week of losses in the past ten weeks which is certainly a stellar performance. All three indexes closed well below their yearly highs.  For the week the S&P closed at 1775.32 down 1.65% for the week, the DJIA 1.51%. So far year-to-date, the BDH ETF portfolio is up 6.15% according to dark-liquidity.com.  This compares with the NASDAQ Composite’s 34.65% performance, S&P 500 performance of 25.59%, and the DJIA performance of 20.23%. 

Bond ETF prices were flat or declined slightly depending upon which ETFs you review.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, AGG or others  one at a time to see their current week’s performance.

NASI December 13 2013

Dashboard Remains on a New SELL Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

 Dashboard-V2-December 13, 2013

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Note that the latest BUY signal may not have been posted on this chart.

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 6.15% but is well below that of the three major indexes where two of the averages have advanced more than quadruple that figure.    The last two Dashboard BUY signals have resulted in losses as the market reversed downward soon after the buy signal was given.  This was not unexpected since these signals occurred near market tops rather than at market bottoms which is the more normal situation.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash

The ETF portfolio was sold on this week with two ETFs sold due to reaching their 3% stop loss on Thursday, and three ETFs sold on the open on Friday as the Dashboard issued a SELL signal on the close on Thursday.

The ETF portfolio has declined 2.02% since its purchase compared with a loss of only 1.65% for the averages. The portfolio information is provided in the following link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking December 13, 2013

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that now only 3 out of 42 ETFshave a “pass” rating compared to 8 out of 42 ETFs the week before that.  The fact that only 7% of the ETFs have a “pass” rating as the market is near or at new highs is a cautionary note. 

Conclusion – Market Pauses Its Advance

The stock market stumbled the entire week.  With a Fed Meeting announcement coming on Wednesday and other economic news hitting the wires, we will see how the market reacts.   For now, the market is still holding its own and the odds are that it will go higher in the near term based on year-end historical seasonality before entering a corrective phase.

 

 

some comments

There are currently 4 of them
  1. Thomas Benner 16 December 2013 at 11:27 am permalink

    Hello,

    I coded your rules in Amibroker AFL and it seems, it produces the same signals as in your blog.

    I did come backtests from 2000-2013 on $COMP, fix investment per trade, and found that the Rule 1 (COMP SMA 100) allone seems to lead to a better CAGR and nearly the same relation between CAGR and maximum drawdown.

    Of course, the rules are not a complete trading system and you are trading not the $COMP but an ETF portfolio, but I do’nt clearly understand why the other rules are an improvement compared to the pure SMA.

    Best Regards

    Thomas

    • Les Masonson 16 December 2013 at 12:49 pm permalink

      Hello Thomas,

      Interesting results. I found that using more than one indicator was usually more profitable and less volatile than using one indicator like the 100-dma. Waiting for the market to fall from a high that is 10 to 20% above its 100-dma or vice versa, to rise that much from a deep correction is too long a wait and gives up too much of the profit. That is why I use multiple indicators. In a choppy market the 100-dma will not work well by itself.

      Regards, Les

  2. Thomas 17 December 2013 at 5:48 am permalink

    Hello Les,

    I’m very interested in that topic. Have you published the strategy development somewere with a comparisation of the indicator effects? I found only backtests against a market benchmark. Maybe I have that overlooked.

    Best Regards

    Thomas

    • Les Masonson 17 December 2013 at 10:51 am permalink

      Thomas,
      I haven’t published any information on that topic. I did use stockcharts.com to view numerous indicators going back to 2000, but I have not backtested various combinations of indicators. There are probably sites that offer that type of backtesting capability. Perhaps you can combine the 100-dma with each indicator separately to see if that improves the results.

      Regards, Les