Market Review– Corrected Numbers
The stock market began the week with four losing days, but rallied back on Friday ending with a small loss for the week. This is the first week of losses in the past nine weeks which is certainly a stellar performance.
All three indexes closed below their yearly highs of the previous week. For the week the S&P closed at 1805.09 down 0.04% for the week, the DJIA closed at 16020.20 down 0.41%, and the NASDAQ Composite closed at 4062.52 up 0.06%. So far year-to-date, the BDH ETF portfolio is up 7.51% according to dark-liquidity.com. This compares with the NASDAQ Composite’s 36.42% performance, S&P 500 performance of 27.29%, and the DJIA performance of 21.78%.
Bond ETF prices declined this week. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance.
Indicator Review – No Changes This Week
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on November 23.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest November 27th bullish percentage reading of 42.6% was lower than the December 4th bullish percentage reading of 47.3%. Investors now are less bullish looking out six months ahead than they were two weeks earlier. Remember that once this indicator exceeds 50% and then falls below it in a subsequent week that would indicate a SELL signal.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. The index crossed above its moving average on November 22nd, while the MACD crossed a few days later. Thus, this index remains on its BUY signal. (Refer to second chart). Note that the index is very close to crossing below its 5-dma.
Dashboard Remains on a New BUY Signal
The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 7.51% but is well below that of the three major indexes where two of the averages have advanced more than triple that figure with the NASDAQ quadrupling that figure.
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested
The ETF portfolio was purchased at the open on Friday, November 29th. The ETF portfolio has declined 0.74% since its purchase compared with a loss of only 0.20% for the averages. The portfolio information is provided in the following link:
Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that now only 8 out of 42 ETFshave a “pass” rating compared to 13 out of 42 ETFs the week before that. The fact that only 19% of the ETFs have a “pass” rating as the market is near or at new highs is a cautionary note.
Conclusion – Market Holds Its Gains
The stock market began to stumble early in the week, but was able to come back strong on Friday as positive job and unemployment news was released. The market’s resilience is amazing, even when negative news hits the wires. For now the market appears to be holding its own and the odds are that it will go higher based on historical seasonality. Make sure stop LIMIT orders have been placed on all ETFs to preserve capital in case of a market reversal lower.