Market Review
The stock market had another uneventful week and ended up positive for the week. It again hit new highs for the past 12-months. This week the market broke out to the upside of its tight trading range. This is a very positive sign, as the market has not given back its gains since it started the year. Apple continued to be a drag on the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ Composite Index.
For the week the NASDAQ Composite was the laggard up 0.29% closing at 3134.70. The S&P 500 Index closed at 1485.92 up 0.94%. Lastly, the DJIA closed at 13488.433 up 1.20% for the week.
Indicator Review
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal. (Refer to upper chart).
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator remains in its January 3 BUY signal. (Refer to upper chart).
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The the latest January 16th bullish reading of 43.9% was slightly below that of the January 9, 2013 bullish reading of 46.4%. Investors have become somewhat complacent about the market outlook after the market’s recent gains.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. The indicator remains on its BUY signal. (Refer to second chart).
Dashboard Remains on “4”BUY signal
Top 5 ETFs
The Top 5 ETFs had a mixed week, as a number of the international ETFs did not perform as well as the domestic ETFs. So far this portfolio has gained 6.07 % compared to the average benchmark’s gain of 5.10 % since the original November 28th Dashboard BUY signal. The link to the current portfolio and statistics is here:
Top-5-ETF-Tracking-January 18, 2013
RWX fell to rank #11 as of the close on Friday. This ETF should be sold at the open on Monday and replaced with EPI which has gained momentum since it was sold a week ago and is now ranked#2 from #14 the prior Friday.
I have received a number of inquiries regarding the Top 5 ETFs regarding a Fail reading while we are holding it. That Pass/Fail readings are used solely when an ETF is to be purchased not when they are already in the portfolio. Only if an ETF drops below rank 10 or is stopped out should it be sold.
Please note that I do not post changes to the ETF Top 5 portfolio during the week. It is your responsibility to check the Decision Page daily to see if any ETFs should be sold and replaced if they fall below rank 10. Any changes will be reported in the weekend blog. There were no changes this past week. Additionally, make sure a Stop Limit order is placed on each position according to your risk tolerance.
Dark Liquidity
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php tracks the BDH performance. Year-to-date the portfolio is up 3.17%.
Conclusion
The market took another breather from the market’s opening week performance. So far the market began the year with a bang, has consolidated in the second week and third week, and is looking good going forward. The odds are that price momentum will continue going forward, as new 12-month highs were reached this past week. However, that is not a guarantee, as we’ll have to wait and see what develops.
Be patient and let your profits run, and do not make emotional decisions on your investments based on news reports. That is the sure way to make mistakes that you’ll regret.
On your decision page, why do you use the 6 month return rate to rank the ETFs, rather than the RSf percentile?
Gregg,
The RSf is a proprietary indicator of the website owner. I have always used the 6 month RS and will continue doing so for consistency, as well as because research indicated that it was a reliable measure of the strength of leading securities.
The link to the BDH2new link does not work.
Harry,
I will replace it with a workable link. Thank you.
Les, great data as always. A correction to your verbiage related to Indicator #6, the reading is down 2.6% from the previous week, not above.
Bud,
Thanks for your close monitoring of the site. I will correct it.