This week the stock market’s roller-coaster ride continued as the S&P 500 Index has had a record twelve consecutive days in a row of an up/down trend (up one day followed by down the next day). U.S. economic news and the continued turmoil in Europe has impacted the market’s ability to go higher. On Friday, although the DJIA was down 171 points at the low of the day while the NASDAQ Composite was down over 55 points, the market was able to comeback with the DJIA falling only 41 points and the NASDAQ Composite declining 21 points.
The market internals continue to deteriorate. For example, there were only 492 NYSE new 52-week highs and 91 new lows, compared to the week before when there were 622 new highs compared with over 700 new highs for the weeks of March 8 and 15. The NASDAQ Composite declined below its 50-dma on Friday intra-day, but was able to close just above it by the close (Refer to Chart above). Also, note that 3200 is acting as resistance/support, as the NASDAQ has dropped below its prior resistance at 3260 Two defensive sectors –Healthcare and Utilities — had a positive weekly performance.
Keep in mind that in the 2010, 2011 and 2012 the market had a solid run in the first quarter, but faltered in either April declined between 10 and 19%. A similar outcome may occur this year.
For the week, all the major averages showed losses. The DJIA down 0.09% at 14565.25, followed by the S&P 500 down 1.01% closing at 1553.28, followed by the NASDAQ Composite closing down 1.95% at 3203.85.
Indicator Review – No Changes
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). This indicator is now only 3% away its 100-dma. So a SELL signal is on the current horizon if the market continues to falter.
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator is on a SELL signal as of its March 21st closing price . (Refer to first chart).
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April 3rd bullish reading of 35.5% was down 2.9 percentage points from the March 27th bullish reading of 38.4%. This indicator remains on its SELL signal from January 31st.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. The indicator remains on its SELL signal as of March 25 as the MACD had a negative crossover, thus confirming the Summation Index crossover below its 5 day-ema. (Refer to second chart)
Dashboard Remains on a “1”SELL signal
The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:
Here is the chart of the BDH Dashboard signals updated by Bob Molner:
Top 5 ETFs – Sold on Open on March 26
The Top 5 ranked ETFs were all sold on the open on March 26, 2013. The portfolio is 100% in cash. Since the March 25th Sell signal, the NASDAQ Composite is down 1.42% while the S&P 500 Index is up 0.10%, and the DJIA is up 0.81%
The Decision Page link with the latest ETF rankings are provided here: http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php. Once the next buy signal is issued this page will be utilized to select the new portfolio.
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDH2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 1.55% which is well below that of the three major indexes which declined this past week. Year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.11%, S&P 500 is up 8.91%, and the DJIA is up 11.15%.
The stock market is having trouble making headway. The NASDAQ Composite has been the laggard this year while the blue chip DJIA has been the leader. Interestingly, even gold made a multi-year low this past week as the market declined. Normally, gold excels in a falling market.
Whether the market can continue to advance in light of possible negative news remains to be seen. For now the uptrend has stalled, and the Dashboard remains on a SELL signal.