The DJIA and the NASDAQ Composite continued their winning ways this week, while the S&P 500 faltered slightly. For the week the S&P closed at 1838.70 down 0.20%, the DJIA advanced only 0.13% closing at 16458.56. The NASDAQ closed at 4297.58 up 0.55% to a new high for the year. So far year-to-date in January 2014, the BDH ETF portfolio is up 1.59% compared to a loss of 0.23% for the three market averages (refer to Top 5 screen).
It is interesting to note that only the NASDAQ Composite of all three of the major indexes had positive MACD crossover BUY signal this past week. Just input $INDU and $SPX in the first chart ticker symbol box to see those indexes and their MACD negative crossovers.
Bond ETF prices ended the week on another burst upward for the second week of positive movement. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on January 16th. (Refer to first chart again).
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest January 15th bullish percentage reading was 39.0% which was lower than the January 8th bullish percentage reading of 43.6%. Investors are less bullish (contrary indicator) looking out six months ahead, than they were two weeks earlier. This indicator remains on its SELL signal.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. The index crossed above its 5-day ema on December 20, while the MACD crossed upward on December 26 Thus, this indicator is on a BUY signal as of December 26.
Dashboard Now on a New Buy Signal
The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date (2014 only) is up 1.59%compared to a loss of 0.25% for the three major averages.
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested
The ETF portfolio is fully invested as of the open on December 26, 2013. The current portfolio of 5 ETFs consists of IBB, XLI, QQQ, XLB, and IWM. Note that two of these ETFs have a “fail” rating as they experienced a MACD downward crossovers. The current Top 5 ETFs are shown in the following link:
Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page now only 16 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating compared to 10 out of 42 ETFs the week before that. This minor increase indicates a slightly more positive tone to the market. Remember that in the blog two weeks’ ago in the review of 2013 performance, I changed the ETF ranking sell criteria to 20 instead of 10 to minimize premature ETF sales.
Conclusion – Market Continues to Hold Its Ground
The stock market has started the year slowly with a small loss after three weeks in the DJIA and S&P 500, and a small gain in the NASDAQ Composite. Indicator #5 had a BUY signal this week. The market is in a tight trading range the past three weeks, and only the NASDAQ Composite has broken out to the upside. Stay tuned and keep your stops in place.