A blog post

Market Pauses Before Its Next Move

Posted on the 15 June, 2014 at 11:41 am Written by in Blog

Market Review COMP June 13, 2014

This past week the stock market had a slight downward bias with international and political news taking the forefront. For the week, the DJIA had the worst performance  losing 0.88% followed by the S&P 500 losing 0.68%. The NASDAQ Composite had the best relative performance losing only 0.25%.  Many technology, momentum and social media stocks again experienced high volatility.  This was accompanied by big movers in energy and gold issues.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 3.21%, the S&P 500 is up 4.75%, and the DJIA is up only 1.20%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 5.61% this year, and is 100% invested.

Gold (GLD) had s solid week advancing smartly and closing the week on its highs. Bonds had a mixed week. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No Changes NASI June 13, 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY on April 22nd . (Refer to first chart). The MACD is starting to turn down but a crossover has not yet occurred.  Be on the lookout for a possible signal change onthis indicator this week if the market moves lower.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest June 11th bullish percentage reading was 44.7% which was higher than the June 4th bullish percentage reading of 39.5%. Investors are now more bullish going out six-months into the future.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY signal as of April 28. (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two crossover areas.)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-June 13 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 5.61 % compared an average gain of 3.05% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

All five ETFs (EPI, IYT, XLB, VGT and XLV) are performing well, but 4 out 5 lost ground last week.   You should note that 4 of the 5 the Top 5 ETFs also have a “fail” rating with a negative reading in their MACD column. EPI held its #1 position, but all the other ETFs dropped a number of positions since the prior week.

See table showing the results of the Top 5: Top 5 ETF Tracking June 13, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now at 19 out of 42 compared to 27 in the prior week.  This decline is not surprising in light of the market’s slight downward bias last week.

Remember that none of the ETFs selected will be sold unless there is a Dashboard SELL signal or any of them drop below rank 20 on a daily basis or they fall below their stop LIMIT order whichever scenario occurs first.

Conclusion – Market Stalls Here

The market’s overall trend remains upward, but internals are weakening. The BDH strategy is still in a “BUY” mode. We will see what develops next week with the Fed’s Wednesday meeting announcement.  Make sure to use stop limit orders to protect your principal


some comments

There are currently 2 of them
  1. Douglas Gammons 20 June 2014 at 11:01 pm permalink

    This is really terrific. I bought your book.

    • Les Masonson 21 June 2014 at 6:02 pm permalink


      Thank you for your positive comment. Be aware that the strategy has been revised since the book was published. Make sure to read the FAQs to see the changes. And read the weekly blog prepared on weekends. Regards, Les