The stock market closed the week mixed with the DJIA, finally closing positive on Friday after eight daily down closes, the most in years. This average is now down 0.56% for the year. Moreover, the DJIA was not only down 2.03% for the week, but it closed below both its 50- and 200 day mas, as well experiencing a negative MACD crossover on June 19. The S&P 500 Index was down -.88% for the week and is up 3.04% for the year. The leader is still the NASDAQ Composite Index which was up 0.69% for the week and 11.44% for the year. Both the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ hit all time highs during the week.
On June 21, both Indicators #5 and 8 issued BDH sell signals resulting in a Dashboard “1” SELL signal. Gold and gold miners were down 0.82% and 0.22% respectively, while NYMEX Crude oil skyrocketed 5.41% for the week, and fixed income was up less than 0.25%.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs was 243 down from 284 the prior week. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas fell to 61.4% down from 65.0%in prior weeks. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently at 58.6% similar to recent weekly levels.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator’s last BUY signal was on May 5, 2018. See upper chart
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on June 21, 2018. Refer to top chart’s red circle
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest June 20, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 38.07% down 6.12 percentage points the prior week. Remember that a reading below 25%, then followed by any subsequent weekly advance below that level is a BUY signal on this indicator.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is currently on a June 21, 2018 SELL Signal, as the Index closed below its moving average in the upper portion of the chart thus confirming the earlier MACD negative crossover. See nearby chart with two red circles
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard Now New “1” SELLsignal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
Note that I could not provide a normal spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. Year- to-date, the BDH strategy is up3.31%, outpacing the DJIA and S&P 500.
Top 5 ETFs – 20% Invested,80% Cash
DBC was sold on June 14, 2018, and subscribers were notified by email. The only currently held position is XLY which is up 6.79% since its purchase. Normally, when we receive a BDH SELL signal all ETFs in the portfolio are sold. However, XLY is acting well with excellent relative strength. Instead, we will hold onto XLY and sell it if closes below $110.50 which is less than the 3% trailing stop of $109.24. Look at the daily chart of XLY to see that $110.50 is a key level. Of course, what decision you make regarding your portfolio is solely up to you.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, there are 25 “passes” out of 52 ETFs compared to 34 four weeks prior, and only 13 “passes” among the top 20 ranked ETFs, clearly indicating the market relative strength leaders are beginning to deteriorate.
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. Currently, XOP, UGA, DBC, VGT, XLE, QQQ, SMH and XLY are the strongest ETFs in their respective categories.
Conclusion — Market Direction Going Forward is Unclear
The NASDAQ Composite needs to stay above its top horizontal red support line (upper chart), otherwise a bigger decline may occur. At this point we have a bifurcated market with the big blue chips and large caps heading south and the tech stocks heading north. This type of market will eventually go in one direction — and we don’t know yet which way it will go. When you see utilities and real estate sectors, rising 2.5%, as they did last week, you know that defensive sectors are starting to be bought by investors to replace declining stocks. Also, note that international ETFs are not doing well with China’s Shanghai Composite down 4.4% for the week, and 13% for the year. So, conditions for continuation of this bull market continue to deteriorate, while the tech stocks try to lead the market higher. That may not work out well going forward. Be very careful here and protect principal.
Notice About A Subscription To this Site
As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim weekly updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Please click on the following link for subscription details:
Interim mid-week emails to subscribers will not be sent out each week unless there is a BDH signal change, an indicator signal change, an ETF sale or an unusual situation.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.