This will be a shortened blog as is the case every other week.
The stock market closed the week down with a weak close on Friday. The DJIA was up about 295 points in the morning, but gained only 55 by the close. A similar situation occurred with the two other major averages. Here is the performance data:
DJIA -1.25% week; -1.81% YTD; +0.7% quarter
S&p 500 -1.22% week; +1.67% YTD; +2.9% quarter
NASDAQ -2.37% week; +8.79% YTD; +6.3% quarter
The leader is still the NASDAQ Composite Index, but it is very volatile with a loss of 161 points on Moday and 117 points on Friday with weak bounces on Tuesday and Friday. If investors have not been in NASDAQ stocks or ETFs this year they probably have lost money. The BDH strategy is ahead of both the S&P 500 and DJIA YTD as shown above, and that comes with much less risk and the ETF portfolio has not been 100% in ETFs during its invested periods.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs continues to deteriorate with 151 stocks compared to 243 for the prior week, and the number of new lows was 263 compared to 195 the prior week. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas fell to 52.1% down from 61.4% in the prior week. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently at53.3% down from 58.6% the prior week.
Our last ETF in the portfolio, XLY was sold on Monday at $109.80, at the closing price, below the 3% stop limit order. Subscribers were informed by emailed at that time. Therefore, the portfolio is 100% in cash at this time. The BDH Dashboard remains on its “1” SELL signal.
The AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage fell 10.3 points to 28.4% this past Wednesday, a large drop for one week. Remember that a reading below 25%, then followed by any subsequent weekly advance below that level is a BUY signal on this indicator.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, there are 24 “passes” out of 52 ETFs compared to 25 in the prior week. Cclearly, the market relative strength leaders are beginning to deteriorate.
The NASDAQ Composite did not stay above its top horizontal red support line (see chart), therefore a bigger decline may occur. For the past week, we have a correlated market with the big blue chips and large caps heading south, as well and the tech stocks. This type of market will eventually go in one direction. When you see utilities, consumer staples and real estate sectors, rising as they did the last few weeks, you know that defensive sectors are starting to be bought by investors to replace declining stocks. For example, utility stocks are up 6.54% in the past two weeks, and consumer staples are up 3.45%. Cconditions for continuation of this bull market are deteriorating before our eyes. That may not work out well going forward. Be very careful here and protect principal.
Notice About A Subscription To this Site
As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim weekly updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Please click on the following link for subscription details:
Interim mid-week emails to subscribers will not be sent out each week unless there is a BDH signal change, an indicator signal change, an ETF sale or an unusual situation.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.