This week’s blog will be a shortened one. An email is being sent to subscribers shortly with the Top 5 ETF table updated and Dashboard signals.
Interim mid-week emails to subscribers will not be sent out each week unless there is a BDH signal change, or an ETF sale or an unusual situation. Indicator changes that do not result in a new BDH Dashboard BUY or SELL signal will not be emailed since there is no action required.
The stock market had a down with week the NASDAQ taking the brunt of the fall down 2.55%. The DJIA fell only 0.19%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.03%. This NASDAQ decline resulted in an Indicator #5 Sell signal (see chart to the right). The BDH Dashboard is now on a “2” NEUTRAL signal. Caution is urged.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs fell to 229 from 310 the prior week. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas advanced declined to 50.56% from 61.48% the prior week. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma also fell to 56.98% from 60.91% the prior week. These two series of numbers indicates that more and more stocks are still not participating fully in this rally.
This past week gold gave back 0.25% while gold miners declined 3.61 %. Brent Oilfell 1.56% while USO fell 2.92% for the week. Fixed income was off -0.48% to -1.32% for IEF and TLT, respectively.
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on September 7, 2018, thereby reversing its August 24th BUY signal. Refer to the first chart’s re circle on the negative MACD crossover on Friday.
Indicator #6 has a sell signal on the upper portion of the chart. A negative MACD crossover will result in a BDH SELL signal. (see chart to the right).
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. Year- to-date, the BDH strategy is up 2.16%. The NASDAQ Composite is up 14.47% YTD, the S&P 500 is up 7.41%, and the DJIA is up 4.84%.
Top 5 ETFs – 50% Cash Remains
Five ETFs were purchased at the open on Monday, August 27th with a 10% position, rather than the normal 20% allocation. The ETFs purchased were: XOP, VB, VGT, XLY, and MDY. Since their purchase the group is down 0.69% vs a gain of 0.22% for the three major averages. XOP is the worst performer down 5.38% and is now on a “fail” rating. It will be sold if its stop limit of 8% is reached.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, the top 25 ETFs have a “pass” rating which is a drop of 10 from last week. This is not a good sign.
Remember that I changed the ETF universe about a month ago which is reflected in the etfscreen.com pages. ETFscreen.com has now updated the information provided on the BDH strategy. Note that the seven asset classes were removed from the database as they were of minimal value overall. Currently, the top performers are in the energy, technology, internet, retail, real estate and small cap areas.
Conclusion — Market Takes a Breather
We will see if this is the start of a more serious decline over the next few weeks. Have your stop LIMITs in place to protect your principal if you are invested.
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As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim weekly updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Please click on the following link for subscription details: BDH Request for Support March 23, 2018
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.