The stock market declined this past week after a solid recovery from the extreme market lows on February 9. For the week the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.08%, the DJIA dropped 3.95%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.04%. The market recovered from its early Friday morning swoon, with the NASDAQ moving up 173 from its low of 7084.83 to close at 7257.87 up 77 points for the day.
The BDH Dashboard is on a “3” BUY signal as of February 27, but no action was taken to purchase ETFs as the situation is too precarious. And subsequently the market has fallen further after the close on Tuesday.
YTD the DJIA is down o.73%, the NASDAQ is up 5.13% and the S&P 500 up 0.66%. The BDH strategy is up 2.79% and has been in cash since 2/8/2018.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs cratered to 174 from 621 three week’s ago. As to be expected the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas dropped sharply to 24.67%, but that was up form a February low of 15.50%. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently at 51.33% falling from 75% in early February Oil stocks fell about 3 to 4%, while gold and gold miners dropped 0.60%, and 2.18%% respectively. Fixed income was mostly flat. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 8, 2016 which remains in effect.
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on February 21, 2018 cancelling the previous SELL signal on February 1.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 28, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 37.3% down 7.4 percentage points from the prior week. This indicator triggered its first sell signal on January 10, 2018 since May 27, 2015. Remember that a reading above 50%, then followed by any subsequent weekly decline below that level is a SELL signal on this indicator.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is currently on a February 27, 2018 BUY signal, cancelling the February 1, 2018 SELL signal (second chart). However, on Friday there was a negative crossover on the top portion of the chart. An MACD negative crossover on the bottom half of the chart will result in a SELL signal on this indicator.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard Now on “1” SELLsignal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
Note that I could not provide a spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For the year-to-date 2018, BDH is up 2.79%. It is in 6th place out of a 22 strategies followed by that website with the leaders having a focus on technology stocks.. See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash
No positions held at the moment.
Note that four ETFs were sold this past week.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs — Note Change Below
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, there are 13 “passes” out of 52 ETFs, and 7 “passes” among the top 20 ranked ETFs.
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. Currently, international (BRF, EEM) and sectors (SMH, VGT, XLF, and XRT) are performing the best.
Conclusion — Market Trying to Get Back to January Highs
The stock market was going south this week into the early morning on Friday, then rebounded nicely into the close. Even though a BDH BUY signal was triggered on February 27, I decided not to act and not buy the Top-5 ranked ETFs, as the market had surged higher in the prior two weeks and was vulnerable to a further decline. Right now the NASDAQ Composite is holding up the market while many issues are down for the year. This index will either make new highs soon, begin a trading range, or break the lows of early February. It is best to remain safely in cash until the trend is established and the market stabilizes. Of course, you can decide to enter the market based on your interpretation of the BDH strategy, but keep in mind the statements below.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.