I have received a reasonable but disappointing number of $20 checks and Paypal payments to keep this website going for at least one more year. I greatly appreciate your support, I will be sending out emails to all of you later today or on Sunday before 12 Noon. with additional market commentary not posted on this blog. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have do not receive this email, then please email me at email@example.com and I will look into it and correct any email address I may have miss-typed or double check my list of payers.
Hopefully, those of you that have not positively responded to the offer for $20 for a year of private emails, will reconsider the value of this service which excels in down markets by keeping the portfolio in cash. Keep in mind that if your subscribe going forward, the yearly subscription will end on March 31, 2019, no matter what the starting date, so the earlier you subscribe the more weekly emails you will receive. This approach simplifies my tracking of subscriptions to a singular date.
Please click on the following link for more details: BDH Request for Support March 23, 2018
The stock market had another major setback this past week with the major averages swinging all over the place with large intra-day swings. Friday was particularly week with the averages down about 2.3% alone on Friday after starting the day with a gap down and then free-faling all day with a slight upturn at 3PM to the close. The market experienced big gaps down on Wednesday and Friday, rallying back on Wednesday, but cratering on Friday. Ending the week with a big decline, as opposed to the previous three positive Friday advances is not a good sign going forward.
The cause of this week’s decline could be attributed to many factors in the news (Fed policy, additional White House trade war pronouncement, China’s comments, Facebook situation, etc. etc.). Nevertheless, the key is to just look at the indexes and make unemotional investing decisions.
The BDH strategy is up 2.79% for the year and is #1 for the year on the www.dark-liquidity.com website out of 22 strategies tracked. Click on the Strategies Summary tab on the top of that screen to check this out. YTD the DJIA is down 3.18%,the S&P 500 is down 2.59%, but the NASDAQ is still up a measly 0.19%.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs was 85 about the same as the prior week. As to be expected, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas decreased sharply to 35.94% from 53.57% the prior week. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently at 47.53% is surprisingly up a few percentage points from the prior week.
Oil stocks had another banner week rising 4.5 to 5.8%, while gold and gold miners rose 0.4% to 0.5%, respectively. Fixed income was also mostly flat up. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a SELL signal on Friday, March 23, 2018
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on March 20, 2018.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April4, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 31.9% flat from the prior week. This indicator triggered its first sell signal on January 10, 2018 since May 27, 2015. Remember that a reading below 25%, then followed by any subsequent weekly advance below that level is a BUY signal on this indicator.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is currently on a March 27, 2018 SELL signal, as the MACD turned negative, thus confirming the March 21 negative crossover on the top portion of the chart.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard on “0” SELL signal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
Note that I could not provide a spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For the year-to-date 2018, BDH is up 2.79%. It is in 1st place out of a 22 strategies followed by that website with the leaders having a focus on technology stocks.. See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash
No positions held at the moment.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, there are 18 “passes” out of 52 ETFs, and 4 “passes” among the top 20 ranked ETFs, indicating the recent market weakness.
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. Currently, UGA, DBC are the strongest ETFs in the top 20 as far as one-month performane.
Conclusion — Market Again At Critical Point
Right now the NASDAQ Composite is leading the market lower losing much of its gain for the year. Many issues are down more than 10% for the year. At this point we are staying in cash as the Dashboard has confirmed the market’s deterioration. If the market closes below its 200-dma, especially the NASDAQ Composite, then we are probably headed much lower. Be careful here and don’t make emotional decisions, as those tend to be the most costly.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.