This September blog post was corrected on September 17, 2018 with an interim blog that was posted to show Indicator #8 SELL signal on September 14 that I inadvertently overlooked. This sell signal resulted in a BDH Dashboard “1” SELL signal. On September 18 at the open all ETFs were sold.
The stock market had another upward trending week. For the week the NASDAQ led the advance with a gain of 1.36%, followed by the S&P 500 which gained 1.16%, and the DJIA the laggard again, gaining 0.92%.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs was 244, similar to last week’s 229 number, but still paltry for a market near new highs. Moreover, there were 257 new lows which is very strange for a market so close to its all-time highs. The prior week also had 231 new lows.
The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas declined to 54.74% from 61.98% three weeks ago. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma also fell to 58.59% from 61.63% three weeks ago. These two series of numbers indicates that may stocks are still not participating fully in this rally as these percentages should be rising as the market makes new highs.
This past week gold was down slightly at 0.19%, while gold miners rose 0.56. Brent Oil rose again by 1.36%% for the week. Fixed income was off -0.38% to -0,49% for IEF and TLT, respectively.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator’s last BUY signal was on May 5, 2018. See upper chart
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on September, 2018, thereby reversing its recent August 24 BUY signal. Refer to the first chart’s green circle on the positive MACD crossover on Friday.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 12, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 32.1% down a big 10.1 percentage points from the prior week. No BUY signal on this indicator is in sight as it must first fall below 25% and then rise above it a week or more later. The last BUY signal was given on 5/21/2015. This is the only indicator still on a sell signal as of 1/2/2018.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator issued a September 18, 2018 SELL Signal.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard Now on “1” SELLsignal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
Note that is Dashboard Date had an incorrect “2” NEUTRAL signal. On September 17 I sent out a blog post correcting Indicator #8 to a SELL signal which was inadvertently overlooked. The September 23 blog posts provides the latest information.
Note that I could not provide a normal spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. Year- to-date, the BDH strategy is up 3.01%. The NASDAQ Composite is up 16.03% YTD, the S&P 500 is up 8.65%, and the DJIA is up 5.81%.
Top 5 ETFs – Five ETFs and 50% Cash
Five ETFs were purchased at the open on Monday, August 27th with a 10% position, rather than the normal 20% allocation. The ETFs purchased were: XOP, VB, VGT, XLY, and MDY. The table below contains the information:
Our BDH ETF portfolio is up 0.17% since its purchase compared to 1.43% for the major averages. Year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 3.01 % compared to an avearge of 10.16% for the major averages.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, there are 38 ETFs with a “pass” rating which is outstanding, and six with a “fail”. The first 23 ETFs listed all have a pass rating. XOP is having a volatile time and its performance is the worst of the lot, but improved from its low two weeks ago. At this time we are not adding to any of these positions.
Remember that I changed the ETF universe about six weeks ago which is reflected in the etfscreen.com pages. ETFscreen.com has now updated the information provided on the BDH strategy. Note that the seven asset classes were removed from the database as they were of minimal value overall. Currently, the top performers are in the energy, technology, internet, retail, real estate and small cap areas.
Conclusion — Market Continues to Move Higher
Based on future market action, the remaining 50% will be reinvested at the appropriate time most likely in mid-October based on historical data. Subscribers will be the first to be notified when a decision is made to invest the remaining 50% of the cash. We will most likely wait for the most appropriate time after the next three to four weeks which have been historically weak.
For those individuals who are not subscribers, they can decide which ETFs they want to invest in and whether they go in 50% to 100% or not at all. I did not select ARKK, FDN, SKYY or ARKW, as they have more volatility than the others I selected.
Notice About A Subscription To this Site
As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim weekly updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at email@example.com. Please click on the following link for subscription details: BDH Request for Support March 23, 2018
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.