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The stock market closed the week mostly unchanged after a few wide swings down and then back up. The S&P 500 and DJIA averages were down about 0.22%, while the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.26%. Gold and gold miners were down for the week, while oil was higher by 2.62% and with fixed income up about 0.26%.
There was a 5/4/2018 Sell signal on Indicator #8 (see lower chart) that was offset by a Buy signal on Indicator #2 resulting in an unchanged BDH “2” Neutral signal. . Therefore, the portfolio is still 60% in cash with DBC and XLY in the portfolio.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs was 174 up 5 from the prior week. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas was 54.17% where its been for a few weeks. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently at 53.22% also little changed in the past few weeks.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator had a BUY signal on May 5, 2018. See upper chart
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on April 12, 2018.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest May 2, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 28.4% down big time from 36.9% the prior week. This indicator triggered its first sell signal on January 10, 2018 since May 27, 2015. Remember that a reading below 25%, then followed by any subsequent weekly advance below that level is a BUY signal on this indicator. The reading of 28.4% was one of the lowest in weeks.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is currently on a May 5, 2018 SELL signal, as the MACD turned decisively negative. See lower chart.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard Remains on “2” NEUTRAL signal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
Note that I could not provide a spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.
Top 5 ETFs – 40% Invested,60% Cash
The following positions were held as of the close on May 5: XLY and DBC. YTD the BDH strategy is up 1.89% compared to 0.74% of the three major averages. The NASDAQ Composite is the clear leader up 4.44%.
Here is the spreadsheet: Top 5 ETF May 5, 2018 2018
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, there are 21 “passes” out of 52 ETFs compared to 30 two weeks prior, and 11 “passes” among the top 20 ranked ETFs, compared to 15 the prior week, clearly indicating more internal market weakness.
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. Currently, XOP, UGA, DBC, VGT and XLY are the strongest ETFs in their respective categories.
Conclusion — Market Resting Before Next Move
Right now the market is still in a multi-week trading range as indicated by the action between the two blue horizontal lines on the first chart. At this point we are 40% invested with 3% trailing closing price stops in place. Without the technology leaders this market would be much lower, so be patient until the market breaks out of the trading range or we get a decisive BDH Dashboard signal.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.