The stock market closed the week with a solid advance with all three averages up at least 2.34%.
Gold and gold miners were up for the week, 0.37% and 1.02% respectively, while oil was up much higher by 3% and with fixed income up about 0.26% like the week before.
There was a 5/10/2018 BUY signal on Indicator #8 (see lower chart) resulting in a BDH “3” BUY signal. However, the portfolio is still 60% in cash with DBC and XLY in the portfolio, as it is not prudent to make a purchase after this multi-day rally. Subscribers will be sent a separate email today or tomorrow with the game plan going forward.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs was 270 up nicely 174 from the prior week. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas was 65.7% up from 54.17% the prior week. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently at 58,9 up from 53.22% the past priorweek.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator had a BUY signal on May 5, 2018. See upper chart
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on April 12, 2018.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest May 2, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 33.5 up nicely from 28.4% the prior week. Remember that a reading below 25%, then followed by any subsequent weekly advance below that level is a BUY signal on this indicator. The reading of 28.4% was one of the lowest in weeks, but now it may not occur again for quite some time if the market keeps rallying from here.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is currently on a new May 10, 2018 BUY signal, as the MACD turned decisively negative. See lower chart.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard Now on “3” BUYsignal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
Note that I could not provide a spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.
Top 5 ETFs – 40% Invested,60% Cash
The following positions were held as of the close on May 5: XLY and DBC. YTD the BDH strategy is up 2.23% compared to 3.30% of the three major averages. The NASDAQ Composite is the clear leader up 7.41%, while the DJIA is up only 0.46% and the S&P 500 up only 2.02%. Clearly, this is a market dominated by the techncology sector where most of the big gains are.
Here is the spreadsheet: Top 5 ETF May 11, 2018, 2018
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, there are 34 “passes” out of 52 ETFs compared to 21 two weeks prior, and 20 “passes” among the top 20 ranked ETFs, compared to 11 the prior week, clearly indicating market strength, a reversal of the market weakness in prior weeks.
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. Currently, XOP, UGA, DBC, VGT and XLY are the strongest ETFs in their respective categories.
Conclusion — Market Resting Before Next Move
Right now the market is has just broken out of a multi-week trading range on Wednesday, as indicated by the action between the two blue horizontal lines on the first chart. At this point we are 40% invested with 3% trailing closing price stops in place. Without the technology leaders this market would be much lower, so be patient until the market breaks out of the trading range. Although we did get a decisive BDH Dashboard signal, we are being prudent and not acting on it yet. Note that the NASDAQ Composite is still 200 points away from its March 13 high. Subscribers will be given some recommendations on what options to consider at this point in a separate email to go out today or tomorrow.
IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO NEW VISITORS TO THIS SITE
As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Please click on the following link for subscription details:
Interim mid-week emails to subscribers will not be sent out each week unless there is a BDH signal change, an indicator signal change, an ETF sale or an unusual situation.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.