Market Review
The stock market had a mixed performance. For the week, the NASDAQ was the leader up 0.74%, followed by the S&P 500 down 0.54%, and the DJIA down 1.07%. Of particular concern is the NYSE 52-week highs falling to 163 down from 217 the prior week, and the new lows of 321 rising from 231, both worse than the week before. The number of new highs is very low in a market at all time highs. This indicates that many stocks are not participating in this market surge.
Indicator #5 is very close to a MACD positive crossover (see blue circle in nearby chart). I normally wait for a more decisive crossover than the miniscule one on Friday. An up day on Monday or Tuesday would turn this indicator positive.
Gold miners (GDX) pulled back dropping 1.38% and oi l (USO) jumped 3.74%, while $BREN soared 5.77%, both at new yearly highs and both up abput 25% for the year. TLT rose 0.15%, and IEF rose 0.17%.
The number of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas dropped to 48.98%, its lowest reading since May. And the number above than their 200-dmas declined to 56.89% down from the mid 60’s a few weeks ago. The market is weakening internally.
This past week gold was down slightly at 0.19%, while gold miners rose 0.56. Brent Oil rose again by 1.36%% for the week. Fixed income was off -0.38% to -0,49% for IEF and TLT, respectively.
Our ETF portfolio remains 100% in cash awaiting the next BUY signal.
Indicator Review – No Change
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its early September BUY signal, but is about to go positive.
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on September, 2018, thereby reversing its recent August 24 BUY signal. Refer to the first chart’s green circle on the positive MACD crossover on Friday.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 19, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 36.2% up 4.2 percentage points from the prior week. No BUY signal on this indicator is in sight as it must first fall below 25% and then rise above it a week or more later. The last BUY signal was given on 5/21/2015. This is the only indicator still on a sell signal as of 1/2/2018.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator issued a September 18, 2018 SELL Signal. So far it is not indicating a turn to a positive reading.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard Remains on “1” SELL signal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results September 28, 2018
Note that I could not provide a normal spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. Year- to-date, the BDH strategy is up 2.63%. The NASDAQ Composite is up 16.56% YTD, the S&P 500 is up 8.99%, and the DJIA is up 7.04%. The BDH strategy is ranked 18th in performance out of 23 other tracked strategies by that website.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php
On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 26 ETFs had “fail” ratings, a big increase from the last two weeks. That means that 40% of the ETFs have a”fail” rating out of our 44 ETF universe. And only 9 of the top 30 ETFs had a “pass” rating. This is very strange for a market near its highs. All this data indicate a weak underlying market.
Conclusion — Market Takes a Breather
The next two weeks historically speaking have been negative overall. We will see what happens this time around. We will await our next BUY signal which should be coming during October as the market usually turns up after the 15th.
Notice About A Subscription To this Site
As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim weekly updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at lesmasonson@yahoo.com. Please click on the following link for subscription details: BDH Request for Support March 23, 2018
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.