This week’s blog would normally be a shortened one, but since we had a Dashboard BUY signal last week I felt it was important to provide a full review.
Interim mid-week emails to subscribers will not be sent out each week unless there is a BDH signal change, an indicator signal change, an ETF sale or an unusual situation.
The stock market has had another upward trending week. Subscribers were notified last weekend as to the ETFs to purchase at the open on Monday (see Top-5 ETFs below for the details). This August was the best in 18 years for the NASDAQ gaining 5.7% for the month. while the S&P 500 gained 3.0%, and the DJIA gained 2.2%. The latter two indexes had their best August in four years.
The NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs again during the week, while the DJIA is still 2.3% away from late January peak. For the week the NASDAQ led the advance with a gain of 2.06%, followed by the S&P 500 which gained 0.93%, and the DJIA the laggard, gaining 0.68%.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs was 310, similar to last week’s number, but still paltry for a market near new highs. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas advanced declined to 61.48% from 61.98% the prior week. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma also fell to 60.91% from 61.63% the prior week. These two series of numbers indicates that may stocks are still not participating fully in this rally as these percentages should be rising as the market makes new highs.
This past week gold gave back 0.59% while gold miners declined 2.1%. Brent Oil jumped a huge 3.43% for the week. Fixed income was off -0.27% to -1.06% for IEF and TLT, respectively.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator’s last BUY signal was on May 5, 2018. See upper chart
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on August 24, 2018, thereby reversing its recent SELL signal. Refer to the first chart’s green circle on the positive MACD crossover on Friday.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 29, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 43.5% up 5.0 percentage points from the prior week. No BUY signal on this indicator is in sight as it must first fall below 25% and then rise above it a week or more later. The last BUY signal was given on 5/21/2015. This is the only indicator still on a sell signal as of 1/2/2018.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator issued an August 21, 2018 BUY Signal. See nearby chart and two green circles on the right side.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard Now on “3” BUY signal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
Note that I could not provide a normal spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. Year- to-date, the BDH strategy is up 3.27%. The NASDAQ Composite is up 17.5% YTD, the S&P 500 is up 8.52%, and the DJIA is up 5.04%.
Top 5 ETFs – 50% Cash Now
Five ETFs were purchased at the open on Monday, August 27th with a 10% position, rather than the normal 20% allocation. The ETFs purchased were: XOP, VB, VGT, XLY, and MDY. Subscribers were provided this information last weekend, as they get priority on Dashboard Buy and Sell signals. Because of the high risk nature of this market, we recommended a 50% position instead of the normal 100% fully invested position. The current table contains the information on the purchases:
Note that had we been 100% invested on August 27 instead of 50% invested, the gain for the week would have been 0.86% instead of the 0.43%. However, I recommended that less than full position be taken because of the market’s lofty position.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, the top 35 ETFs have a “pass” rating which is outstanding. In total there are 8 ETFs that have a “fail”.
Remember that I changed the ETF universe about a month ago which is reflected in the etfscreen.com pages. ETFscreen.com has now updated the information provided on the BDH strategy. Note that the seven asset classes were removed from the database as they were of minimal value overall. Currently, the top performers are in the energy, technology, internet, retail, real estate and small cap areas.
Conclusion — Market Continues to Set Record Highs
Based on future market action, the remaining 50% will be reinvested at the appropriate time. Subscribers will be the first to be notified. If the market continues higher we will not add further money, but await the next pullback, if there is one, before making a decision on the next purchase opportunity.
For those individuals who are not subscribers, they can decide which ETFs they want to invest in and whether they go in 50% to 100% or not at all. I did not select ARKK, FDN, SKYY or ARKW, as they have more volatility than the others I selected.
Notice About A Subscription To this Site
As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim weekly updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Please click on the following link for subscription details: BDH Request for Support March 23, 2018
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.