IMPORTANT MESSAGE TO SUBSCRIBERS
I greatly appreciate your support. So far, I have sent out two emails — April 8 and April 12 — to subscribers. Subscribers will be receiving another email before 1 PM today (Sunday). If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org, and I will look into it and correct any email address I may have miss-typed or double check my list of payers.
Hopefully, those of you that have not positively responded to the offer for $20 for a year of private emails, will reconsider the value of this service which excels in down markets by keeping the portfolio in cash. Keep in mind that if your subscribe going forward, the yearly subscription will end on March 31, 2019, no matter what the starting date, so the earlier you subscribe the more weekly emails you will receive. This approach simplifies my tracking of subscriptions to a singular date.
Please click on the following link for more details: BDH Request for Support March 23, 2018
The stock market’s pattern of a down week followed by an up week continued this week by closing higher. There were five daily gap openings with four to the upside. The cause of this week’s action can potentially be attributed to many factors in the news (missile strikes in Syria, Fed policy, additional White House trade war pronouncements, China’s comments, Facebook situation, Michael Cohen news, Comey book release, etc.) Nevertheless, the key is to just look at the indexes and make unemotional investing decisions.
The BDH strategy is up 2.79% for the year and is #3 for the year on the www.dark-liquidity.com website out of 22 strategies tracked. Click on the Strategies Summary tab on the top of that screen to check this out. YTD the DJIA is down 1.45%,the S&P 500 is down 0.65%, but the NASDAQ is still up 2.94%.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs was 113 up from 85 the prior week. As to be expected, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas increased sharply to 51.43% from 35.94% the prior week. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently at 53.13% up from 47.53% the prior week.
Oil stocks had another banner week rising 7 to 8%, after rising 4 to 5% in the prior week, while gold and gold miners rose 0.84% to 3.7%, respectively. Fixed income was down slightly. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its SELL signal on Friday, March 23, 2018 and April 13, 2018 after a one day BUY signal on April 12.
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on April 12, 2018.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April 11, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 26.1% flat from 31.9% prior week. This indicator triggered its first sell signal on January 10, 2018 since May 27, 2015. Remember that a reading below 25%, then followed by any subsequent weekly advance below that level is a BUY signal on this indicator. The reading of 26.1% was the lowest in weeks.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is currently on a March 27, 2018 SELL signal, as the MACD turned negative.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard on “1” SELL signal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
Note that I could not provide a spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For the year-to-date 2018, BDH is up 2.79%. It is in 3rd place out of a 22 strategies followed by that website with the leaders having a focus on technology stocks.. See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash
No positions held at the moment.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, there are 23 “passes” out of 52 ETFs, and 9 “passes” among the top 20 ranked ETFs, indicating the recent market weakness.
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. Currently, UGA, DBC are the strongest ETFs in the top 20 as far as one-month performane.
Conclusion — Market Again At Critical Point
Right now the NASDAQ Composite has lead the market higher last week. At this point we are staying in cash as the Dashboard has confirmed the market’s deterioration. If the market closes below its 200-dma, especially the NASDAQ Composite, then we are probably headed much lower. Be careful here and don’t make emotional decisions, as those tend to be the most costly.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.