Note To Subscribers: There was no interim update last week and probably not one this week unless we get a BDH Buy signal which does not appear likely.
The stock market closed the week higher due to the solid performance on Thursday and Friday. In particular, the NASDAQ Composite Index gained 84 points and 102, respectively on those two days or 2.48% compared to only 1.17% for the DJIA. As the nearby chart indicates, the former index surpassed and closed above its “red” support line (should be labeled resistance). And the NASDAQ is only 93 points away from its closing high on June 20. Te MACD is also turning higher. So a buy signal on Indicator #5 could easily occur next week. That would put the BDH strategy at a “2” NEUTRAL rating.
Indicator #2 and #8 do not look they will be providing a BUY signal soon, and Indicator #6 will probably not drop below 25% next week if the market heads higher, so that indicator will not come into play. Therefore, we will have to patiently wait for a higher market to get the next BDH BUY signal. As is normally the case, whenever the market comes off a decline, the market has to rise about 5% or more for the BDH indicators to give a BUY signal. It can be difficult for investors to wait for the signal as the market keeps rising while we are 100% in cash, but that is a fact of life, if the strategy is followed.
For the week, the NASDAQ was up 2.37%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.52%, and the DJIA rose only 0.76%. For the YTD, the respective numbers are 11.37%, 3.22%, and -1.08%. The BDH strategy is up 2.84% for the year, not a bad performance considering the amount of tim that the strategy was not invested at 100% capacity, or the partially invested periods
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs was 177 up from 151 the prior week, but still paltry for a market near new highs. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas rose to 60.87%% up nicely from 52.1% in the prior week The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently at 59.8% up from 53.3% in the prior week.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator’s last BUY signal was on May 5, 2018. See upper chart
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on June 21, 2018. Refer to top chart’s red circle. Note that the MACD is starting to turn up (orange circle) which means that a continued uptrend could result in a buy signal on this indicator next week.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July5, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 27.9% down 0.6 percentage points fromthe prior week. Remember that a reading below 25%, then followed by any subsequent weekly advance below that level is a BUY signal on this indicator. If the market keeps rising from here the likelihood is that indicator will not decline below 25%.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is currently on a June 21, 2018 SELL Signal, as the Index closed below its moving average in the upper portion of the chart thus confirming the earlier MACD negative crossover. See nearby chart with two red circles
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard Remains on “1” SELLsignal
Here is the latest Dashboard ( as of June 22 since there have been no changes since then). Click on the line below:
Note that I could not provide a normal spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. Year- to-date, the BDH strategy is up3.31%, outpacing the DJIA and S&P 500.
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash
No ETFs are currently held.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, there are 30 “passes” out of 52 ETFs compared to 24 last week, and 16 “passes” among the top 20 ranked ETFs, clearly indicating the market relative strength leaders are beginning to gain strength
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. Currently, XOP, UGA, DBC, VGT, XLE, QQQ, SMH and XLY are the strongest ETFs in their respective categories.
Conclusion — Market Attempting to Match or Exceed Early New Highs
The NASDAQ Composite successfully exceeded its red resistance line on the Friday close as shown by the green rectangle. It is only 93 points away from its June 20, 2018 all-time high (upper chart). With the market’s strong performance on Thursday and Friday, the stage is set for further upside. Whether that will occur remains to be seen. We will not enter this market until a BDH BUY signal is given and the NASDAQ exceeds its prior recent high. Aggressive investors who want to enter the market before the next BDH BUY signal is given should consider XOP, QQQ, XLY, XRT, and IWM as the five leading ETFs. We are not recommending that approach, just mentioning it to those individuals who want to take more risk and want to get back into this market sooner rather than later. Of course, anyone buying these ETFs or others should have appropriate rules for exiting their positions should the market reverse.
Notice About A Subscription To this Site
As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim weekly updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Please click on the following link for subscription details:
Interim mid-week emails to subscribers will not be sent out each week unless there is a BDH signal change, an indicator signal change, an ETF sale or an unusual situation.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.