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The NASDAQ Composite and DJIA experienced its tenth consecutive week of positive returns — quite an astounding run. More importantly, the NASDAQ Composite is solidly above its 200-dma joining the other two averages. Amazingly, the 2019 performance for the first two months of the year has been the best since 1991.
On the accompanying chart note that the upper MACD (slower one) experienced a negative crossover on February 28 resulting in a SELL signal on Indicator #5 which adjusted the BDH Dashboard to a “3” BUY signal from a “4” Buy signal. Also, BRF , SKYY, XLY and XLI had negative MACD crossovers, but only BRF has a “fail” rating. This will be discussed in the Top 5 section.
For the week the market advance was lethargic with the DJIA falling 0.02%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.39%, and the NASDAQ gaining 0.90%. The BDH portfolio advanced only 0.21% with our 100% invested position. Note on the accompanying chart that the NASDAQ is solidly above its 7477 200-dma Hopefully, it will stay above this critical level going forward, as it about 118 points this level at the Friday close.. The next target level and resistance zone to surpass is the 8100 level which was the October 2018 high.
For the year-to-date the DJIA is up 11.57%, the S&P is up 11.84%, and the NASDAQ is up the most at 14.47%. This compares to BDH’s 2019 performance of 5.60%, based on our late 50% entry dates on 1/12/2018 and 2/1/2019, respectively. Had we entered the market with a 100% position after our January 3, 2019 BUY signal our performance would have been comparable. But I was conservative and waited for a more definitive entry point. That gave up another 8% gain.
GLD gave up 2.88 % for the week, while GDX had worse performance losing 5.90%. Oil prices also tanked with USO down 2.43% and $BRENT fell 3.05%. On the fixed income side, TLT lost a big 2.19%, and IEF fell 0.80%.
The percentage of the NYSE stocks are above their 200-dma is now at 55.48% where its been the past few weeks. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas dropped a bit to 85.48% from was 90% last week. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the market reversed direction here, as the market has made a phenomenal v-shaped recovery from its lows December 24, 2018 lows and its reading on the last mentioned indicator is at extremely high levels.
The number of NYSE stocks with 52-week new highs was 318 up form 269 and similar levels in the prior weeks. So the number of new highs is slowly moving up the past two months.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
BDH Dashboard Now on February 28 BUY Signal “3”
The Dashboard link is as follows: Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results March 1, 2019
Note that the Dashboard fell one notch to a “3” Buy from a “4” Buy due to Indicator #5 MACD Sell Signal
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its February 4 BUY signal.
Indicator #2A NASDAQ Composite Index and 200-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on February 15. This subset indicator will be used when the market falls below the 200-dma and then begins to turn up. It will normally be pierced to the upside before the 100-dma and will provide a quicker entry signal.
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a slow MACD SELL signal on February 28 (see upper chart). This MACD issued a BUY signal on January 4, 2019.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 27, 2019 Bullish Percentage reading was 41.6% up 2.2 percentage points the prior week. This reading is always taken by AAII on Wednesday and reported on Thursday. This indicator remains on its BUY signal.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a slow MACD SELL signal on the close on February 26, 2019, which was much slower than the January 31 SELL signal on the fast MACD (lower one on the chart). Note that the Index and 5 day-ma near the top right of the chart is nearing a potential negative crossover. If this occurs next week then it will confirm the MACD crossover resulting in a SELL signal with a new Dashboard “2” NEUTRAL.
The link is www.dark-liquidity.com/index.php/strategies. You can go to www.dark-liquidity.com first and then hit strategies. Our strategy is 11th best out of 23. The BDH strategy has gained 5.60% during its invested period while the three major averages have gained 8.19%
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Copy and paste the DecisionPage link into your browser:
On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 30 ETFs had “pass” ratings compared to 36 the prior week. Note that BRF, SKYY, XLY and XLI had negative MACD percentages this week. This should act as an early warning that a potential price decline may be on the horizon. Therefore, I am adjusting the stop LIMIT prices on all positions so we don’t give back too much of the recent gains. These new limits is being emailed to subscribers in an interim email shortly today.
If you click on the “Additional Fund Stats” tab on the right side of the screen, then you can array the ETFs by the best 1-day 5-day, 1-month and 3- month returns by clicking on the down or up carat under the time heading.
Top 5 ETF Portfolio – 100% Invested
Conclusion — Short-Term Market Direction Is Up Until It’s Not
The market continues its march higher but the advance appears to be slowing down. The 200-dma and 100-dma are holding up well. After this big NASDAQ run-up in the last ten weeks a normal pullback for a week or two is possible and certainly desirable. Be very careful here and have your personal stop LIMIT orders in place in case the market reverses. I am sending an interim today regarding setting new stop limits on the existing portfolio.
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As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim weekly updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and interim analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Please click on the following link for subscription details: BDH Request for Support March 23, 2018
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions you take with your investments. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome. Make sure to check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like now. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.