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This will be a shortened blog, as is the normal case, every other week.
The NASDAQ Composite, DJIA, and Russell 200 experienced their ninth consecutive week of positive returns — quite an astounding run that has been rare in stock market history. According to the WSJ Febuary 23 edition, this advance “is on track for their biggest early-year advance in three decades..”
More importantly, the NASDAQ Composite finally closed above its 200-dma for the second week in a row (see nearby chart). The 200-dma is the line in the sand that the NASDAQ must stay above of the advance to continue. Note that the upper slow MACD is getting close to a downturn (orange circle).
For the week, the three major averages closed slightly higher with an an average increase of about 0.62% compared to 0.63% for the BDH Portfolio which is up 5.39% for the year.
GLD gained 0.56 % for the week, while GDX gained 2.81%. Oil prices accelerated much higher again with USO up a solid 2.05% and $BRENT was up 1.31%. On the fixed income side, TLT lost 0.34% again, but IEF inched higher with a gain of 0.16% for the second week in a row.
The percentage of the NYSE stocks are above their 200-dma is now at 58.32% up from 53.08% a week ago. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas closed the week at 89.98% up slightly from 89.43% the prior week. The week’s percentage is the highest since April 2014 where the readings were in the 89-90% range, and the highest since May 2009 where the level top out at 93%. In both cases stocks fell after hitting those extreme levels falling to the 25% range before riding higher again. I expect that this market will NOT be able to sustain this powerful advance much further based on historical norms. So make sure you have appropriates stop LIMITs in place so you don’t give back your hard earned profits.
The number of NYSE stocks with 52-week new highs was 269 compared to 245 the week before.
The Dashboard link is as follows and hasn’t changed since last week’s version: Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results February 15, 2019
Indicator Review – No Changes
Note that the upper MACD on the NASI chart is nearing a downward crossover,but the upper Index is not, so no signal change yet.
The link is www.dark-liquidity.com/index.php/strategies. You can go to www.dark-liquidity.com first and then hit strategies. Our strategy is 10th best out of 23.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Copy and paste the DecisionPage link into your browser:
On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 37 ETFs had “pass” ratings compared to 36 the prior week.
If you click on the “Additional Fund Stats” tab on the right side of the screen, then you can array the ETFs by the best 1-day 5-day, 1-month and 3- month returns by clicking on the down or up carat under the time heading.
Top 5 ETF Portfolio – 100% Invested
Conclusion — Short-Term Market Direction Is Up Until It’s Not
The market continues its march higher discounting any bad news along he way. The question is whether or not we can go up further from here. The 200-dma at 7472 must hold). After this big run-up in the last nine weeks a normal pullback for a week or two of 2 to 5% is possible and certainly desirable. Be very careful here and have your personal stop LIMIT orders in place in case the market reverses. I do not expect to send an interim update next week unless market conditions deteriorate.
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As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim weekly updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and interim analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at email@example.com. Please click on the following link for subscription details: BDH Request for Support March 23, 2018
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions you take with your investments. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome. Make sure to check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like now. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.