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The NASDAQ Composite and DJIA experienced its eighth consecutive week of positive returns — quite an astounding run. More importantly, the NASDAQ Composite finally closed above its 200-dma joining the other two averages — the DJIA accomplished this feat on February 1 and S&P 500 did so on February 13.
For the week, the DJIA advanced 3.09%, the S&P 500 rose 2.50%, and the NASDAQ gained 2.39%. The BDH portfolio advanced a respectable 2.71% for the week at our 100% invested position. Note on the accompanying chart that the NASDAQ finally closed at 7472 above its 200-dma of 7465. Hopefully, it will stay above this critical level going forward. The next target level to surpass is the 7486.51 level which was the December 3 intra-day high.
For the year-to-date the DJIA is up 10.96%, the S&P is up 10.72%, and the NASDAQ is up the most at 12.62%. This compares to BDH’s 2019 performance of 4.76%, based on our late 50% entry dates on 1/12/2018 and 2/1/2019, respectively. Had we entered the market with a 100% position after our January 3, 2019 BUY signal our performance would have exceeded the market averages because of the better performance of high relative strength stocks. But I was conservative and waited for a more definitive entry point. That gave up another 8% gain.
GLD gained 0.48 % for the week, while GDX gained 0.40%. Oil prices accelerated much higher again with USO up a solid 5.69% and $BRENT was up 3.98%. On the fixed income side, TLT lost 0.30%, and IEF fell 0.16%.
The percentage of the NYSE stocks are above their 200-dma is now at 53.08% up from lower levels. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas was 89.43% a huge jump from 50.86% a month ago, and a monster jump from 25.51% six weeks prior. The week’s percentage is the highest since April 2014 where the readings were in the 89-90% range, and the highest since May 2009 where the level top out at 93%. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the market reversed direction here, as the market has made a phenomenal v-shaped recovery from its lows December 24, 2018 lows. However, what most people think the market will do usually does not happen. So we will watch our indicators and make decisions based on facts not guesses.
I have included the point-and-figure chart of the NYSE stocks above their 50-dma so you can see how high the percentage is since 2003. There has been only 7 times since 2003 that the percentage has reached these lofty levels before the market declined.
The number of NYSE stocks with 52-week new highs was 245 compared to 179 the week before.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
BDH Dashboard Remains on February 4 BUY Signal “4”
The Dashboard link is as follows: Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results February 15, 2019
Note on the upper chart for that the NASDAQ is getting closer to its 100-dma (Indicator #2).
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator had a BUY signal on the close on February 4, 2019.
Indicator #2A NASDAQ Composite Index and 200-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on February 15. This subset indicator will be used when the market falls below the 200-dma and then begins to turn up. It will normally be pierced to the upside before the 100-dma and will provide a quicker entry signal.
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a fast MACD BUY signal on December 27, 2018, thereby reversing its last SELL signal on December 7. The regular MACD issued a BUY signal on January 4, 2019.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 13, 2019 Bullish Percentage reading was 35.1% down from 39.9% the prior week. This reading was taken on Wednesday. This indicator remains on its BUY signal.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator issued a January 3, 2018 BUY signal (refer to nearby chart) with both the faster MACD (6,13,5) and the Index ema having a positive crossover. The standard MACD indicator issued a BUY signal on January 8, five days later.
The link is www.dark-liquidity.com/index.php/strategies. You can go to www.dark-liquidity.com first and then hit strategies. Our strategy is 10th best out of 23.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Copy and paste the DecisionPage link into your browser:
On ETFscreen.com, the Decision Page indicated that 36 ETFs had “pass” ratings compared to 36 the prior week.The six “fails” were SH, DOG, PSQ, FXE, TBF and DBA.
If you click on the “Additional Fund Stats” tab on the right side of the screen, then you can array the ETFs by the best 1-day 5-day, 1-month and 3- month returns by clicking on the down or up carat under the time heading.
Top 5 ETF Portfolio – 100% Invested
Conclusion — Short-Term Market Direction Is Up Until It’s Not
The market continues its march higher discounting any bad news along he way. The question is whether or not we can go up further from here. The 200-dma at 7465 must hold as well as the support level below that at 7274, as well and the 100-dma). After this big run-up in the last eight weeks a normal pullback for a week or two is possible and certainly desirable. Be very careful here and have your personal stop LIMIT orders in place in case the market reverses. I do not expect to send an interim update next week unless market conditions deteriorate quickly.
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As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim weekly updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and interim analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at email@example.com. Please click on the following link for subscription details: BDH Request for Support March 23, 2018
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. This website was developed for educational purposes only and is not responsible for any actions you take with your investments. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are 100% responsible for your investment outcome. Make sure to check the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile like now. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.