Note To Subscribers: There was no interim update last week and probably not one this coming week unless we get a BDH Dashboard Buy signal which does not appear likely. Only a BUY signal on Indicator #8 would do that and neither of the component parts are near a crossover yet.
The stock market had a mixed week with a downdraft on Friday. Two major averages moved slightly lower for the week with the DJIA down 0.59%, the S&P 500 down 0.25% while the NASDAQ Composite was actually up 0.35% for the second consecutive up week. The August through mid-October period is normally one in which the market tends to see a market downtrend, but we are certainly not in normal times. So anything can happen like a “black swan” event.
We are now on a BDH Dashboard “2” NEUTRAL signal from the prior SELL signal. See the nearby chart for the MACD upward crossover.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs was 269 up from 241 the prior week, but still paltry for a market near new highs. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas fell to 54.78% from 58.12% two weeks prior. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently at 59.34% flat for the past few weeks.
This past week gold was down minimally while gold miners were down 2.84%. Fixed inclome was up between 1.21% (TLT) and 0.64% (IEF). Oil took a hit down about 1.4%.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator’s last BUY signal was on May 5, 2018. See upper chart
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on August 10, 2018, thereby reversing its July 27, SELL signal. Refer to the first chart’s green circle on the positive MACD crossover on Friday. Note also that the red support line is about where the NASDAQ closed the week.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 8, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 36.4% up 7.3 percentage points from the prior week. No BUY signal on this indicator is in sight as it must first fall below 25% and then rise above it a week or more later.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator continues on its June 21, 2018 SELL Signal. See nearby chart.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard Now on “2” NEUTRAL signal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
Note that I could not provide a normal spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. Year- to-date, the BDH strategy is up 2.84%. The NASDAQ Composite is up 14.34% YTD, the S&P 500 is up 5.97%, and the DJIA is up 2.40%.
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash
No ETFs are currently held.
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, there are 25 “passes” out of 44 ETFs, and 13 “passes” among the top 20 ranked ETFs, down from 31 and 17 respectively a week earlier. Also, remember that I changed the ETF universe a few weeks ago. The current ETFs are shown on www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page.
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. Currently, XOP, VGT, XLE, QQQ, XLY, FDN, ARKW, SKYY, and ARKK are the strongest ETFs in their respective categories.
Conclusion — Market Trying to Work Its Way Higher
We will wait patiently for a higher market to get the next BDH “3” BUY signal from the current “2” NEUTRAL signal. As is normally the case, whenever the market (in our case the NASDAQ Composite as it is the index used for the BDH strategy) comes off a decline, the market has to rise about 5% or more for the BDH indicators to give a BUY signal. It can be difficult for investors to wait for the signal as the market keeps rising while we are 100% in cash, but that is a fact of life, if the BDH strategy is followed.
The NASDAQ Composite’s current position is on its red support line.
Notice About A Subscription To this Site
As of March 23, 2018, this site has been offering a yearly subscription for $20 for interim weekly updates and additional analysis, as needed. This blog is still free, but some information and analysis will be provided only to subscribers. If you’ve sent me a payment, but have not received the earlier emails, then please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org. Please click on the following link for subscription details:
Interim mid-week emails to subscribers will not be sent out each week unless there is a BDH signal change, an indicator signal change, an ETF sale or an unusual situation.