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The stock market has now closed higher two weeks in a row, reaching a high point on Wednesday, and then giving back most of the prior week’s gain with declines on Thursday and Friday. For the week, most averages eked out a 0.50% gain. All major averages are above their respectie 50- and 200-dmas.
NEW BDH BUY SIGNAL EMAILED TO SUBSCRIBERS
On April 17 late afternoon, I emailed subscribers with an interim update. It pointed out the new BDH “3” BUY signal, as both Indicator’s #2 and #8 issued BUY signals. Accordingly, five ETFS were purchased at the average price for the day on April 18. These were: UGA, XRT, XLY, VGT and DBC.
The number of new NYSE 52-week highs was 221 up from 113 the prior week. As to be expected, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas increased to 57% from 52% the prior week, but it was at 68% after the Wednesday’s close. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently at 54.38% up from 53.13% the prior week.
Oil stocks had another positive week rising about 1.5%, after rising 10% in the prior two weeks, while gold and gold miners declined 0.64% to down 0.8 %, respectively. Fixed income was hit hard down 1-2%. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator had a BUY signal on April 17, 2018. See upper chart
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on April 12, 2018.
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest April 18, 2018 Bullish Percentage reading was 37.8% up from 26.1% prior week. This indicator triggered its first sell signal on January 10, 2018 since May 27, 2015. Remember that a reading below 25%, then followed by any subsequent weekly advance below that level is a BUY signal on this indicator. The reading of 26.1% was the lowest in weeks. If it dropped only 1.1 percentage points two weeks ago, we would have had a BUY signal on this indicator as well. BUT that did not happen.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is currently on a April 17, 2018 BUY signal, as the MACD turned positive. See nearby chart.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard on “3” BUY signal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
Note that I could not provide a spreadsheet type link due to a software issue with this WordPress software. Go back to January 2017 to see the last spreadsheet and all prior data.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. I will providing the data to this site on the purchase price of the new ETF portfolio which may take a day or two to be updated.
Top 5 ETFs – 80% Invested. 20% Cash
The following positions were held as of the close on April 18: UGA, XRT, XLY, VGT and DBC. XRT was sold at the close on April 20 with a 3.17% loss.
Here is the spreadsheet: Top 5 ETF April 20, 2018
BDH Decision Page – BDH Dashboard ETFs
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser:
Currently, there are 30 “passes” out of 52 ETFs compared to 23 the prior week, and 15 “passes” among the top 20 ranked ETFs, compared to 9 the prior week, both sets of numbers indicating more internal market strength.
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. Currently, UGA, DBC are the strongest ETFs in the top 20 as far as one-month performane.
Conclusion — Market Resting Before Next Move
Right now the market is still in a multi-week trading range. At this point we are fully invested with 3% trailing closing price stops in place.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.