Blog

Feb 25

Market ReviewCOMP Feb 24, 2017

This past week the stock market powered ahead again, but with more subdued gains, and the NASDAQ Composite was the weakest performer.

For the week, the DJIA gained 0.96%, the S&P 500 rose 0.69%, and the NASDAQ Composite was up only 0.12%. For the 2017 year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 5.36%, compared to 5.74% for the S&P 500, and 8.59% for the NASDAQ and is still the current leader among these three indexes year-to-date. The BDH strategy advanced 4.37% for the year, and is currently 100% invested. All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.

There were  449 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 505 the prior week showing a slight deterioration with a rising market.  Normally at bull market highs there are well over 700 new highs. The lack of more new highs shows that many stocks are not participating in the gains.

Interestingly, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas is at 69.91% compared to 83% on January 6, and this number has been declining for a few weeks.  However, the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma has stayed steady at 75.69%.    So, overall the market is holding on to its gains, although internally there are many under performing stocks.

Interestingly, bond and gold prices surged higher, and utilities (XLU) were the best performing group for the week up over 3.5%.  Oil and gold miners moved lower.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review – No Changes This Past Week NASI Feb 11 2017

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on January 25 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 22, 2017 Bullish Percentage reading was 38.5% up from 33.1% two weeks ago.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a BUY signal on February 15, 2017, as was reported in last weekend’s shortened blog post.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Remains on “4”BUY Signal

The last BDH BUY signal was generated on January 25, 2017 as Indicator #5 had a positive MACD crossover.

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results Feb 24, 2017

I have a software problem including the full Excel spreadsheet of the Dashboard, so I’m using WORD instead.  If you need the complete worksheet since 2010 go to the January 2, 2017 blog and click on it there.  Sorry for the inconvenience.

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 2.73%.    It is in 12th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 9.94% compared to a gain of 12.33% for the three major averages.  Our portfolio has lost ground to the averages in the past few weeks with the poor performance of SMH since its purchase.  Note that both SMH and IYT have “fail” ratings due to a negative MACD crossover. Check out the spreadsheet:

Top 5 ETF February 24, 2017

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance  XLF, IYT, XLE and XLI in the Sectors, and BRF and EWC in the International sector.

Currently, 28 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which indicates not all ETF categories are participating in the rally to new highs

Conclusion  —  Market  Keeps Rising

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  Enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal. This bull market run since March 9, 2009 has now made it the longest bull market in history measured by weeks at 411 weeks, based on the S&P 500 Index.  So don’t be surprised if it runs out of steam soon to begin a decline. I am using a 5% trailing stop to protect capital.  You should use your own defensive approach.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Feb 19

This will be an abbreviated blog post, as is the case every other week.  Refer to last weekend’s blog for all the links to the data.

Market Summary COMP Feb 17, 2017

The stock market keeps chugging ahead just like the Energizer bunny.  For the week, the NASDAQ Composite led the way up 1.82%, followed by the DJIA advancing 1.75%, and the S&P 500 up 1.51%  On Wednesday, Indicator #8 issued a BUY signal as the MACD finally had a positive crossover (see second chart below).  This resulted in a BDH maximun “4” BUY signal.

For the Y-T-D, the NASDAQ is the clear leader up 8.46%, followed by the S&P 500 up 5.02%, and the DJIA up 4.36%.  The BDH strategy is up 4.58% and is current;y 100% invested in five ETFs.  Oil, gold, ad bonds ended the week mostly unchanged after some volatility during the week.

Overall, the stock market is continuing its terrific run with no major signs of a downtrend.  Even the number of new NYSE 52-week highs kicked up to 504 from 379 the prior week.  So enjoy the ride as long as it lasts and make sure your stops are in place in case of a reversal.

Have a great President’s Day weekend! NASI Feb 17, 2017

Feb 12

Market Review COMP Feb 11 2017

This past week the stock market powered ahead with strong gains on Thursday and Friday.

For the week, the DJIA gained 0.99%, the S&P 500 rose 0.81%, and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.19% and is still the current leader among these three indexes. For the 2017 year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 2.56%, compared to 3.45% for the S&P 500, and 6.52% for the NASDAQ.  The BDH strategy advanced 2.73% for the year, and is currently 100% invested. All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.

There were only 379 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 331 the prior week which is low for a market making new highs.  Normally at bull market highs there are over 600 to 700 new highs. The  number of new lows continues to shrink currently at 44 compared to 57 for the prior week.  The lack of more new highs shows that many stocks are not participating in the gains.

Interestingly, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas is at 74.17% compared to 83% on January 6.  However, the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma has moved higher  to 75.47% compared to a range  of 70.27% from 65.24% over the past month.    So, overall the market is holding on to its gains, although internally there are many under performing stocks.

Not surprisingly, bond and gold prices were slightly lower.  Oil moved up slightly.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review – No Changes This Week NASI Feb 11 2017

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on January 25 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 8, 2017 Bullish Percentage reading was 35.8% up from 32.8% two weeks ago.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a SELL signal on December 23, 2016, as the MACD had a negative crossover, and the Index fell below the 5-day EMA as well. However, this past week the Index moved above the 5 day-ema (refer to green box on right side of chart).  However, MACD still needs a positive crossover to generate a a BUY signal on this indicator .  This condition is imminent as the chart indicates. 

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Remains on “3”BUY Signal

The last BDH BUY signal was generated on January 25, 2017 as Indicator #5 had a positive MACD crossover.

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results Feb 10 2017

I have a software problem including the full Excel spreadsheet of the Dashboard, so I’m using WORD instead.  If you need the complete worksheet since 2010 go to the January 2, 2017 blog and click on it there.  Sorry for the inconvenience

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 2.73%.    It is in 12th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 9.13% compared to a gain of 9.81% for the three major averages.  Our portfolio is only 0.68% away from matching the markets performance.  This is a good showing as we have taken a number of stop losses along the way to limit our market exposure.

Note that now all five ETFs have a “pass” rating.

Check out the spreadsheet:

Top 5 ETF February10, 2017

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance  SMH XLF, IYT, XLE and XLI in the Sectors, and BRF and EWC in the International sector.

Currently, 28 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which indicates not all ETF categories are participating in the rally to new highs

Conclusion  —  Market  Keeps Rising

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  Enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal. This bull market run since March 9, 2009 has now made it the longest bull market in history measured by weeks at 409 weeks, based on the S&P 500 Index.  So don’t be surprised if it runs out of steam soon to begin a decline. I am using a 5% trailing stop to protect capital.  You should use your own defensive approach

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Feb 05

This will be a very short review.

The stock market opened the week lower, but gained back its losses by Friday with the three major averages moving about 0.11%.  There are no changes in the ETF portfolio or in the indicators.  We’ll see what next week brings.

Enjoy the game tonight!

Jan 29

Market Review COMP Jan 27 2017

This past week the stock market finally made the move to all-time highs with all three major averages hitting highs on Wednesday.    For the week, the DJIA gained 1.34%, the S&P 500 rose 1.03%, and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.90% and is the current leader among these three indexes. For the 2017 year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 1.68%, compared to 2.50% for the S&P 500, and 5.16% for the NASDAQ.  The BDH strategy advanced only 2.18% for the year, as it is currently 80% invested. All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.

There were  498 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 213 the prior week which shows a nice improvement.  The  number of new lows continues to shrink currently at 41 compared to 42 for the prior week.

Interestingly, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas declined to 74.49% from 83% on January 6.  However, the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma has remained stable at 70.74% compared to a range  of 70.27% from 65.24% over the past three weeks ago.    So, overall the market is holding on to its gains showing signs of strengthening internally.

Bond and gold prices were down.  Oil moved up slightly.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Change This Week NASI Jan 27 2017

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on January 25 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest January 25, 2017 Bullish Percentage reading was 31.6% down from 43.6% three weeks ago.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a SELL signal on December 23, 2016, as the MACD had a negative crossover, and the Index fell below the 5-day EMA as well.  Refer to second chart with the two circled areas.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “3”BUY Signal

A new BDH BUY signal was generated on January 25, 2017 as Indicator #5 had a positive MACD crossover.

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results Jan 27 2017

I have a software problem including the Excel spreadsheet of the Dashboard so I’m using the WORD approach.  If you need the complete worksheet since 2010 go to the January 2, 2017 blog and click on it there.  Sorry for the inconvenience

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 2.18%.    It is in 12th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   80% Invested, but going to 100% on Monday

The portfolio is 80% invested. Because of the new BUY signal we will purchase SMH at the open on Monday to have a 100% invested position.

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 6.48% compared to a gain of 8.69% for the three major averages.  Hopefully our portfolio will outpace the averages in the weeks ahead.

Note that two out of our four ETFs had a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover weeks ago.

Check out the spreadsheet:

Top 5 ETF January 27, 2017

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance XOP and UGA in the Commodities sector, SMH XLF, IYT, XLE and XLI in the Sectors, and BRF and EWC in the International sector

Currently, 23 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which indicates not all ETF categories are participating in the rally to new highs

Conclusion  —  Market  Bounces Higher

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  Enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal. This bull market run since March 9, 2009 has now made it the longest bull market in history measured by weeks at 407 weeks based on the S&P 500 Index.  So don’t be surprised if it runs out of steam soon to begin a decline. I am using a 5% trailing stop to protect capital.  You should use your own defensive approach

 

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Jan 22

This will be a shortened blog.

Market SituationCOMP January 20 2017

The stock market hardly moved this week awaiting the next President.  By the close on Friday, the DJIA was down 0.29% for the week followed by a decline of 0.34% for the NASDAQ Composite, and a decline of 0.15% for the S&P 500.  For the YTD, the DJIA is up 0,33%, the NASDAQ is up 3.20% and the S&P 500 is up 1.45%.  This compares to a rise of 0.73% for the BDH strategy.

On Friday, Indicator #5 experienced a negative MACD crossover resulting in a SELL signal on that indicator.  This caused the Dashboard to revert to a “2” NEUTRAL signal.    The number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE continued to deteriorate to 213 from 295 the prior week.

Looking at the chart to the right, you can see the NASDAQ’s MACD negative crossover and the eight day trading range marked by the horizontal lavender box.  We’ll wait to see which way it breaks to determine the next short term trend.  If it does hold the upper support line, then we could test the lows around December 29 at 5371.89.  Right now the NASDAQ is at 5555.13, and easy number to remember.

Here is the latest Dashboard in a WORD document, as I still have a problem importing EXCEL into this blog.:

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results for January 20, 2017

Have a good week.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Jan 14

Market Review Comp January 13, 2017

This past week the stock market hardly moved.  The DJIA never made it to 20000 again.   For the week, the DJIA fell 0.39%, the S&P 500 declined 0.15%, and the NASDAQ Composite was up 0.96% and is the current leader among these three indexes.

For the 2017 year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 0.62%, compared to 1.60% for the S&P 500, and 3.55% for the NASDAQ.  The BDH strategy advanced only 1.18% for the year.

All three major averages are still well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.  There were only 295 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 229 three weeks ago which shows a slight improvement.  The  number of new lows continues to shrink currently at 39 compared to 60 t0 70 range for the past month.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas shot up to 83% on January 6, but settled on Friday at 80.54% which is  much better than the 68.29% three weeks ago. Likewise, the percentage of stocks above  their longer-term 200-dma has risen to 70.27% from 65.24% three weeks ago.    So, overall the market is holding on to most of its gains  showing signs of strengthening internally.

Bond prices were down.  Gold (GLD) and gold miners (GDX) glittered and moved higher.  Oil ETFs were flat week.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Change This Week NASI January 13,2017

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on January 9 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 28, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 43.6% down from 46.2% the prior week.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a SELL signal on December 23, 2016, as the MACD had a negative crossover, and the Index fell below the 5-day EMA as well.  Refer to second chart with the two circled areas.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “3”BUY Signal

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Report January 13

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 1.18%.    It is in 14th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of November 11, 2016   Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 6.16% compared to a gain of 7.44% for the three major averages.  Hopefully our portfolio will outpace the averages in the weeks ahead.

Note that four out of our five ETFs had a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover three weeks ago. However, most of these ETFs are coming close to a positive MACD crossover.

Check out the spreadsheet:

Top 5 ETF January 13, 2017

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance XOP and UGA in the Commodities sector, SMH XLF, IYT, XLE and XLI in the Sectors, and BRF and EWC in the International sector

Currently, 18 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which is a major negative change from 5  three weeks ago.

Conclusion  —  Market  Rests

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  A number of technical indicators are trying to turn higher.  The daily MACD on many ETFs and stocks are trying to reverse to the up side.   Enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal.  I am using a 5% trailing stop.

In the next few weeks I will provide a more detailed review of how the BDH strategy performed in 2016.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Jan 09

Complete post weekend of January 14.  No changes to portfolio.

Jan 02

Market Review

comp-december-30-2016This past week, the stock market had its first major decline since the election.  Overall it was not severe, and the DJIA never made it to 20000 although it got close on Tuesday intra-day.   For the week, the DJIA fell 0.86%, the S&P 500 declined 1.10%, and the NASDAQ Composite was down 1.46%

For the year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 13.42%, compared to 9.54% for the S&P 500, and 7.50% for the NASDAQ.  The BDH strategy advanced only 3.20% for the year, a disappointing performance.

All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.  There were only 228 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 314 two weeks ago which shows an internal deterioration for the last three weeks.  The  number of new lows has been steady in the 60 t0 70 range for the past month.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas is steady at 68.29%.  The percentage of stocks above  longer-term 200-dma has declined to 65.24% from 68.54% three weeks ago.    So, overall the market is holding on to most of its gains, although showing signs of weakening.

Bond prices rallied nicely this week, but have given up most of the gains for the year.  Likewise Gold (GLD) rallied nicely staying above the January lows.  Oil ETFs moved higher last week.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Change This Week nasi-december-30-2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on December 28 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator), cancelling its December 8 BUY signal.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 28, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 45.6% down from 44.6% the prior week.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a SELL signal on December 23, 2016, as the MACD had a negative crossover, and the Index fell below the 5-day EMA as well.  That signal resulted in a  BDH Dashboard  “3” BUY reading. Refer to second chart with the two circled areas.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

Here is the latest Dashboard:

dashboard-v2-december-30-2016_wc-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The BDH strategy performance has taken a hit over the past few months with trailing stops kicking in and the market’s quick turnaround.   For the year-to-date, BDH is up only 3.20%.    It is in 13th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of November 11.  On December 13, XOP was sold at $42.72 as it hit its 5% trailing stop.  On December 14, XLE was bought in its place at $77.46 since the BDH strategy was on a “4” BUY signal.

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained4.91% compared to a gain of 6.05% for the three major averages.  If our portfolio of ETFs is able to outperform the averages, the gap between the BDH 2017 performance and the three averages should shrink.

Note that all our five ETFs have a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover two weeks ago. This indicates that the market may be turning lower in the coming days or weeks, so stay alert.

Check out the spreadsheet:

top-5-etfr-december-30-2016

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance XOP and UGA in the Commodities sector, SMH XLF, IYT, XLE and XLI in the Sectors, and BRF in the International sector

Currently, only 5 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which is a major negative change from 27 three weeks ago. Repeat :Note that all our five ETFs have a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover in the last thirteen ding days. This indicates that the market may be turning lower in the coming days or weeks, so stay alert.

Conclusion  —  Market  Rests

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  No one predicted it.  However, a number of technical indicators are turning down.  The daily MACD on many ETFs and stocks has already crossed to the downside.  Normally the market rallies into the last week of the year, but instead it fell on the last three days.  We will see if it can move higher on Tuesday and Wednesday, normally positive days historically speaking.  So enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal.  I am using a 5% trailing stop.

In the next few weeks I will provide a more detailed review of how the BDH strategy performed in 2016.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Dec 24

Market Review comp-december-23-2016

Over the past two weeks, the stock market has been consolidating its gains with weekly moves of less than 0.5%.  This is not unexpected in light of the big gains since election day.  For the week, the DJIA and NASDAQ Composite were up around 0.46%, compared to the S&P 500 gained only 0.25%.

For the year-to-date,  the DJIA has gained 14.40%, compared to 10.76% for the S&P 500, and 9.09% for the NASDAQ.  The BDH strategy is up 4.55% for the year.

All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.  There were only 314 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 676 two weeks ago which shows an interernal deterioration.  The  number of new lows has been steady in the 70 range for the past three weeks.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas is steady at 69.35%.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma has declined to 65.93% from 68.54% two weeks ago.    So, overall the market is holding on to most of its gains, although showing signs of weakening.

Bond prices remain near their yearly lows, having giving up all their gains for the year since the July highs.  Likewise Gold (GLD) had a flat week and is trying to stay above the January lows which are close by. Oil ETFs made little progress last week.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Change This Week nasi-december-23-2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on December 8 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest Decemer 21, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 44.6% down from 44.5% the prior week.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a SELL signal on December 14,2016, as the MACD had a slightly negative crossover, and the Index fell below the 5-day EMA as well.  This signal resulted in a  BDH Dashboard  “3” BUY reading. Refer to second chart with the two circled areas. This SELL signal could easily be reversed to a BUY if the NASDAQ powers ahead next week or beyond.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “3” BUY Signal

Here is the latest Dashboard:

dashboard-v2-december-23-2016_wc-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The BDH strategy performance has taken a hit over the past few months with trailing stops kicking in and the market’s quick turnaround.   For the year-to-date, BDH is up only 4.55%.    It is in 13th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of November 11.  On December 13, XOP was sold at $42.72 as it hit its 5% trailing stop.  On December 14, XLE was bought in its place at $77.46 since the BDH strategy was on a “4” BUY signal.

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 6.27% compared to a gain of 8.81% for the three major averages.  If our portfolio of ETFs is able to outperform the averages, the gap between the BDH YTD performance and the three averages should shrink.

Note that all our five ETFs have a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover in the last seven trading days. This indicates that the market may be turning lower in the coming days or weeks, so stay alert.

Check out the spreadsheet:

top-5-etfr-december-16-2016

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance XOP and UGA in the Commodities sector, SMH XLF, IYT, XLE and VGT in the Sectors, and BRF in the International sector

Currently, only 8 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which is a major negative change from 27 two weeks ago. Repeat :Note that all our five ETFs have a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover in the last seven trading days. This indicates that the market may be turning lower in the coming days or weeks, so stay alert.

Conclusion  —  Market  Rests

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  No one predicted it.  However, a number of technical indicators are starting to turn down.  The daily MACD on many ETFs and stocks has already crossed to the downside.  Normally the market rallies into the last week of the year and the first few days of the New Year.  We’ll see if that is the case this time around. So enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal.  I am using a 5% trailing stop.

Enjoy a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah, and a great New Year!

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.