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Sep 28

Market Review COMP September 26 2014

The stock market had a roller-coaster week as domestic and overseas news riled the markets, as volatility increased. Alibaba and many momentum stocks got pounded, but managed to show some resilience on Friday with positive returns.  Every day this week the DJIA had a triple digit advance or decline.  For example,on Monday and Tuesday this index lost a combined 223 points, on Wednesday it gained 154 points, on Thursday it lost 264 points and on Friday it gained 167 points.  The two other major averages followed similar patterns.  The Russell 2000 small cap stocks continued their declines, eclipsing the losses on the other three averages on a percentage basis.

The NASDAQ Composite led the market lower with the worst performance down 1.48%, followed by the S&P 500 Index declining 1.37%, and the DJIA down only 0.96%.  Interestly, only one week ago on September 19, both the latter two indexes had closes on yearly highs, yet the market internals continue to weaken as the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE totaled 88 compared to 209 the prior week.  Moreover, the number of stocks with 52-week lows totaled 315 compare to 187 the week before. Clearly, many of the stocks are having great difficulty making headw

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 8.04%, the S&P 500 is up 7.28%, and the DJIA is up 3.24% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 7.68%

As you can see in the accompanying chart the NASDAQ close Friday just above its support level of 4485 (blue horizontal line) and its 50-dma.  The top blue arrow shows the close above this support level.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) got crushed again for the third consecutive week to the downside.  Gold is at a 12-month low as it has gotten pummeled since its July 10 top.  Bonds vaulted higher as stocks took a hit. In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No Changes

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on September 10. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 24th  Bullish percentage reading was 41.8% which was slightly below the September 17th bullish percentage reading of 42.2%. Investors are a bit less bullish going out six-months into the future than they were a two weeks  ago.  This indicator continues on its sell signal from September 3rd.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is now on a SELL signal as an MACD crossover SELL signal (lower arrow on chart) occurred on September 17 while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on September 13.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating the downturn in the Index and the MACD.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 September 26, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 7.68 % compared an average gain of 6.19% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance compared to the other strategies tracked.

Top 5 ETFs – Now 100% In Cash

IYT was sold this past Monday at  its $154.24 stop price.  It ended the week at $151.67 after falling below $150 intra-day on Thursday.  Thus the portfolio is now 100% in cash awaiting the next buy signal.

Interestingly, the Top 5 ETF portfolio containing 42 ETFs had only 2 ETFs with a “pass” rating compared to 8 ETFs the prior week..   Amazingly, 40 ETFs had fail ratings all due to negative MACD crossovers.  This indicates the broad market weakness among ETFs in varying market sectors which is a rare occurrence when the market is near its highs for the  year. This situation is worrisome and does not bode well for the market going forward.

Conclusion – Market Runs into Stone Wall

The market averages had a very rough and volatile week with no clear direction as of the close on Friday.  Right now patience is a virtue and cash is king.  Relax until the next Dashboard BUY signal occurs.  Have a great week ahead.

 

Sep 22

As mentioned in my last blog, IYT would be sold if it fell below $154.24.  That is what happened today in the morning hours.  Therefore, the portfolio is 100% in cash awaiting the next BUY signal.  A full report will be provided in this weekend’s blog post.  Have  a good week.

Sep 21

Market Review COMP September 19, 2014

The stock market had a positive week to the upside with lots of news including Fed pronouncements, Alibaba IPO success, and  Scotland’s vote to remain in UK.  Also, what added to the calm were non-escalating  international tensions.  This week the DJIA was the leader as large cap stocks jumped up,  while the Russell 2000 small cap stocks actually took a loss.  As small cap stocks usually lead the market higher, this is unsettling situation.

The BDH Dashboard changed from a “2″ Neutral signal to a “1″ SELL on September 17 as Indicator #8 issued a SELL signal.   This resulted in a Dashboard SELL signal as well.

The NASDAQ Composite was the laggard this week with a gain of only 0.27% which is another “red” flag, as this index usually leads the market higher.  The DJIA closed the week up a sold 1.72% to a new all-time closing and intra-day high, well above its 17,000 resistance level which will now act as support.  Similarly, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 1.25% closing above the critical 2000 support level and at a new all-time high.  For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 9.65%, the S&P 500 is up 8.77%, and the DJIA is up 4.24% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 7.76% year with only IYT left in the Top 5 ETF portfolio as explained below.

As you can see in the accompanying chart the NASDAQ is still well above its support level of 4485 (blue horizontal line).  The blue arrow shows the MACD crossover on September 10.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) got crushed again for the second consecutive week to the downside.  Gold is at a 12-month low as it has gotten pummeled since its July 10 top.  Bonds also continued to gave back all of their gains since early August, but managed a small recovery on Friday.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

The number of new NYSE 52-week highs  fell to 209 from 219 the previous which is still 50% below its reading for the week of September 5.  Clearly, many of the stocks are having great difficulty making headway.  Normally when the market rises, as it has in the past week, the number of new 52-week highs should be increasing not decreasing.

Indicator Review –One  Negative Change NASI September 19 ,2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on September 10. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 17th  Bullish percentage reading was 42.2% which was higher than the September 10th bullish percentage reading of 40.4%. Investors are a bit more bullish going out six-months into the future than they were a two weeks  ago.  This indicator continues on its sell signal from September 3rd.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is now on a SELL signal as an MACD crossover SELL signal (lower arrow on chart) occurred on September 17 while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on September 13.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating the downturn in the Index and the MACD.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 September 19, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 7.76 % compared an average gain of 7.55% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – Now 80% In Cash

The Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating were purchased at the open on August 25, 2014.  Those were as follows: EPI,  SMH,  IYT, EEM, and VNQ.  since September 12, four of these ETFs have been sold as they penetrated their 3% intra-day trailing stops.  The information on the sale price and date sold is provided in the accompanying table.

Normally, all ETFs are sold when a Dashboard SELL signal occurs.  However, IYT has made new all-time highs, had a positive MACD crossover and a “pass” rating on the etfscreen.com criteria.  Due to these very positive characteristics, I decided to hold IYT with a tight stop at $154.24 (which is one penny below the low of September 17 where the price gapped up).  This stop will remain in place for the time being, and then replaced with a 3% trailing stop if it rises more than 3% from $154.24.  As of Friday, IYT closed at $154.81 so it is only $0.57 away from it stop price. If the price closes at or below $154.24 intra-day it will be sold.

Interestingly, the Top 5 ETF portfolio containing 42 ETFs had only 8 ETFs with a “pass” rating compared to 3 ETFs the prior week..   Amazingly, 34  ETFs had fail ratings all due to negative MACD crossovers.  This indicates the underlying market weakness among ETFs in varying market sectors which is a rare occurrence when the market is at its highs for the  year. This situation is worrisome and does not bode well for the market going forward.   The latest Top 5 update is here:

Top 5 ETF Tracking September 19, 2014

Conclusion – Market Powers Higher as Internals Weaken as Uptrend May Be Near Its End

The market averages had gains for the week and appeared frothy, especially with all the hype surrounding the launch of Alibaba.  Internally though the market has a considerable  number of stocks decaying in prices.   Therefore, extreme caution is urged.  A market decline early in the week will most likely result in the sale of IYT which will place the Top 5 portfolio 100% in cash.

 

Sep 17

NASI September 17 2014Market Situation

The market had a mixed day after the release of the Fed’s latest decision.  Indicator #8 experienced an MACD downward crossover (see chart) which confirmed the Index crossover that occurred a number of days ago. This indicator is now on a SELL signal  Thus, the Dashboard reading changes to a “1″ SELL as of today’s close.

Normally the Top 5 ETFs would be sold at tomorrow’s open.  However, in the current situation four of these ETFs were already sold last week, as they penetrated their intra-day trailing stops to the downside  The remaining ETF in the portfolio is IYT.  This ETF had a positive MACD crossover today and a “pass” rating on ETFscreen.com,and also gapped up at the open and closed at an all-time high today.  Based on these positive factors, I recommend holding IYT with  a stop-loss just below the low of the day at $154,24.

The chart for IYT is shown nearby: IYT Sept 17 2014

 

A full report will be provided this weekend.  The BDH Dashboard is 80% in cash with IYT as the only open position.

Sep 15

NASI September 15, 2014Market Situation

Today the market was confused.  The DJIA moved higher and the NASDAQ Composite got hit hard to the downside.  As you can see in  the accompanying chart, the NASI crossover on the upper chart deepened, while the MACD is just barely above its crossover level.  So that means that this indicator is not  yet on a SELL signal.  A continuation of the NASDAQ Composite slide will result in a MACD crossover in the next few days.  I will update the blog the day that it  occurs.

Two More Top 5  ETFs Hit Trailing Stops

In the Top 5 ETFs table I forgot to include EPI’s 3% trailing stop that was hit on Friday in my last update.  That ETF was sold at $22.93 on Friday.  It’s recent high was $23.64 on Sept 8 intra-day.  This sale will updated in my table this coming weekend.  Today SMH was sold at $50.97 as its 3% trailing stop was hit.  Its recent intra-day high price was $52.55 on Sept 8 as well.  That means that only IYT remains in the Top 5 ETF portfolio as of tonight.  It’s trailing stop is at $140.74

Stay tuned for any Dashboard SELL signal this week.

Sep 13

Market Review COMP September 12, 2014

The stock market remained in a consolidation mode with minimal movement by week’s end.  This week, though, the averages ended lower for the first time in about four weeks. This pause was not unexpected in light of the solid advance during this timeframe.  The BDH Dashboard changed from a “3″ BUY signal to a “2″ Neutral signal as Indicator #5 had a negative MACD crossover on September 10.  Interestingly, the Top 5 ETF portfolio containing 42 ETFs had only 3 ETFs with a “pass” rating.   Amazingly, 39 ETFs had fail ratings all due to negative MACD crossovers.  This indicates the underlying market weakness among ETFs in varying market sectors.  Moreover, two of the Top 5 ETFs were sold at their 3% trailing stops, so the portfolio is now 60% invested as their is no longer a BUY signal.

The NASDAQ Composite closed slightly Friday off its high of the prior week, closing down 0nly 0.33% for the week.  This index continues to lead the market higher as technology, internet and social media issues continue to power higher.   The DJIA closed the week down 0.87% that is now below its 17000 support level.  The S&P 500 gave up the most with a 1.1% loss and closed below its critical 2000 support level  For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 9.36%, the S&P 500 is up 7.42%, and the DJIA is up 2.48% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 7.69% year with a big loss of  2.21% this past week, greatly exceeding the market averages average loss of 0.77%.

As you can see in the accompanying chart the NASDAQ is still well above its last resistance level of 4485 (blue horizontal line).  The blue arrow shows the MACD crossover on September 10, as we forewarned about in the previous week’s blog posting.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) got crushed again to the downside.  Gold is near a 12-month low as it has gotten pummeled since its July 10 top.  Bonds also gave back all of their gains since early August.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

The number of new NYSE 52-week highs has been cut by 50% to 219 from 402 the prior week.  Clearly, the market is having great difficulty in making headway.

Indicator Review –One  Negative ChangeNASI September 12 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on September 10. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 10th  Bullish percentage reading was 40.4% which was lower than the September 3rd bullish percentage reading of 44.7%. Investors are much less bullish going out six-months into the future than they were a two weeks  ago  when the reading was 51.9%.   This indicator continues on its sell signal from September 3rd.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is nearing a MACD crossover SELL signal (lower arrow on chart) while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on September 13.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating the downturn in the Index and the MACD.  A  SELL signal on this indicator is imminent if the MACD crosses downward next week.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 September 12, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 7.69 % compared an average gain of 6.42% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – Now 60% Invested

The Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating were purchased at the open on August 25, 2014.  These were as follows: EPI,  SMH,  IYT, EEM, and VNQ. This past week, EEM and VNQ were sold as they pierced their 3% training stops to the downside from their peak intra-day prices.  EEM peaked at $45.85 on 9/5/2014 and VNQ hit $78.08 of 9/9/2014.  Overall the Top 5 ETFs had a bad week giving up 2.21% from the prior week, after gaining 1.90% the week before that.

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has declined  to 3 from 31 the prior week (out of 42) for the week before that, indicating that he market has taken a turn for the worse in only one week. This situation is concerning and does not bode well for the market going forward.   The latest update is here:

Top 5 ETF Tracking September 12, 2014

Conclusion – Market Stalls as Internals Weaken as Uptrend May Be Over

The market averages had small losses for the week,and on the surface it appears that everything is fine.  Internally this is not the case, as mentioned above.  The Dashboard  had two negative  Indicator changes in the past two weeks and a SELL signal on Indicator#8 is imminent.  If this occurs the Dashboard would be on a “1″ SELL signal.  Check the NASI chart daily to see if it gives a sell signal.   The Top 5 ETF portfolio is performed much worse that the market averages in the past week which is an ominous sign.  To protect profitss or minimize potential losses keep a 3% trailing stop on all positions, and liquidate the remaining 3 ETFs if the Dashboard flashes a SELL signal.  I will post a blog during the week if this occurs.  In the mean time be careful and protect your gains for the year before they disappear.

 

 

 

Sep 07

Market Review Comp September 5 2014

The stock market advance slowed to a crawl with the major averages up less than 0.25% for the week.  This pause is not unexpected in light of the solid advance of the past three weeks.

The NASDAQ Composite closed at its high for the year on Wednesday and then gave back a bit the rest of the week, while the S&P 500 closed at a new yearly and all-time high on Friday.  The DJIA closed the week at a new yearly and all-time high.  The NASDAQ  was the laggard this week up only 0.06%

As you can see in the accompanying chart the NASDAQ is now well above its last resistance level of 4485 (blue horizontal line).  The blue arrow shows the the clear decay in the MACD line (blue arrow) which could easily cross to the downside this coming week with a move of 25 or more points.  So be on the lookout for it.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.06%,  followed by the S&P 500 advancing 0.22%. The DJIA gained 0.23%. For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 9.73%, the S&P 500 is up 8.62%, and the DJIA is up 3.38% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 9.90% year with a gain of 1.90% this past week greatly exceeding the market averages.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) got crushed to the downside.  Bonds gave back some of their gains from the prior week.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –One Change

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 14. (Refer to first chart).  However, the MACD is now turning down and a negative crossover looks imminent.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 3rd  Bullish percentage reading was 44.7% which was much lower than the August 27th bullish percentage reading of 51.9%. Investors are now more bullish going out six-months into the future than they were a week ago.  This index has risen above 50% and subsequently dropped below that level which is a SELL signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 15, while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on August 13.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating the upturn in the red line (Index) and the MACD.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 Sept 5 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 9.90 % compared an average gain of 7.24% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

The Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating were purchased at the open on August 25, 2014.  These were as follows: EPI,  SMH,  IYT, EEM, and VNQ.  Although these ETFs were underperforming the averages as of August 29, they are now outperforming them 3.28% vs. 2.47%, after having risen 1.90% last week from the prior week.

The lastest update is here:

Top 5 ETF Tracking September 5, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has dropped to 31 from 34 the prior  week and to 20 out of 42 for the week before that, indicating that he market has made a solid advance to the upside in the past 24 trading days.  The is a overall positive sign for the market.

Conclusion – Market Pauses

The market had minimal gains this past week.  Indicator #6 issued a SELL signal this past week and Indicator #5 is close to a SELL signal.  The Top 5 ETF portfolio is performing better than the market averages.  To protect our positions we will keep a 3% trailing stop on all positions through September, and most likely loosen the stop to 7-10% if the market continues its advance during October.  Right how the market trend is stil up so enjoy it while it lasts.

 

Aug 30

Market Review COMP August 29 2014

The stock market had another positive week, but with smaller gains than the prior week.  The NASDAQ Composite closed at its high for the year and the S&P 500 closed at a new high above 2000.  The DJIA closed the week near 17100 only slightly below its yearly high.  The NASDAQ has continued to be leader and outpaced the other two averages for the month of September which is typically a down month historically.

As you can see in the accompanying chart the NASDAQ is now well above its last resistance level of 4485 (blue horizontal line).  The blue arrow shows the the slight flattening of the MACD line which is not a concern at the moment.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.11%,  followed by the S&P 500 advancing 0.75%. The DJIA gained 0.57% now the weakest performer of the three averages this past week.. For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 9.68%, the S&P 500 is up 8.39%, and the DJIA is up 3.15% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 8.00% this year, and is fulled invested.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had a positive.  Bonds also moved higher with a number of ETFs hitting their highs for the year.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI August 29 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 14. (Refer to first chart).  However, the MACD is slightly flattening.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 27th  bullish percentage reading was 51.9% which was higher than the August 20th bullish percentage reading of 46.1%. Investors are now more bullish going out six-months into the future than they were a week ago.  This index has jumped about 20  points in the pas tthree weeks indicating the large increase in bullishness by investors.  Remember that a move above 50% bullishness followed by a drop in any subsequent week below that level is a SELL signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 15, while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on August 13.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating the upturn in the red line (Index) and the MACD.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 August 29 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 8.00 % compared an average gain of 7.07% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

The Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating were purchased at the open on August 25, 2014.  These were as follows: EPI,  SMH,  IYT, EEM, and VNQ.  The lastest update is here:

Top 5 ETF Tracking August 29, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has skyrocketed to 34 compared to 20 out of 42 for the prior week, indicating he market has made a solid advance to the upside in the past 19 trading days.  The is a positive sign for the market.

Conclusion – Market Advance Slows Its Pace

The market had small gains heading into the three-day holiday weekend. The Top 5 ETF portfolio has risen 1.38% since its purchase  which is less than the major averages 2.39% advance.  We will keep a 3% trailing stop on all positions through September, and most likely loosen the stop to 7-10% if the market continues its advance during October.  Right how the market trend is up so enjoy it while it lasts.

 

Aug 22

Market Review COMP August 22 2014

The stock market had another positive week  with the NASDAQ Composite closing at its high for the year and the S&P 500 hitting a new high on Thursday.  The DJIA closed the week above 17000 again and is very close to its yearly high.  During the last 11 trading sessions, the NASDAQ has been up nine times, while the other two averages have been up eight times.

As you can see in the accompanying chart the NASDAQ is now well above its last resistance level of 4485 (blue horizontal line).  The blue arrow shows the breakout and continued positive performance.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.67%,  followed by the S&P 500 advancing 1.71%. The DJIA gained 2.03% now the strongest performer of the three averages. For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 8.57%, the S&P 500 is up 7.48%, and the DJIA is up 2.55% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 7.65% this year, and became fulled invested on the open this past Monday.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had a negative week.  Bonds also faltered closing mixed for the week.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI August 22 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 14. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 20th  bullish percentage reading was 39.8% which was much higher than the August 13th bullish percentage reading of 46.1%. Investors are now much more bullish going out six-months into the future than they were a week ago.  This index has jumped about 15 points in the past two showing the large increase in bullishness by investors.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 15, while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on August 13.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating the upturn in the red line (Index) and the MACD.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 August 22 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 7.65 % compared an average gain of 6.20% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

The Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating were purchased at the open last Monday.  These were as follows: EPI,  SMH,  IYT, EEM, and VNQ.  The lastest update is here:

Top 5 ETF Tracking August 22, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has risen to 20  compared to 18  out of 42 for the prior week, indicating he market has made a u-turn toward the upside in the past 12 trading days.  The is a positive sign for the market.

Conclusion – Market Continues Its Advance Higher

The market powered ahead as international tensions abated during the week.  The Top 5 ETF portfolio has risen 1.03% since its purchase on Monday which is less than the major averages 1.54% advance.  We will keep a 3% trailing stop on all positions through September, and most likely loosen the stop to 7-10% if the market continues its advance during October.  Right how the market trend is up so enjoy it while it lasts.

 

Aug 17

Market Review comp August 15 2014

The stock market had another volatile week, especially on Friday based on the news out of Ukraine.   The market dropped 90 points within 30 minutes of the news flash and then worked its way higher by the close.  The NASDAQ Composite closed higher for the day and is only about 21 points away from its early double top area of 4485 (refer to top resistance line on the accompanying chart).   Earlier in the week it bounced up off its 50-dma, as you can see. Based on the strength of the NASDAQ after hitting a low about 7 trading days ago,  it is nearing its yearly high and has resulted in triggering a BUY signal for Indicators #5 and #8 as of the close on Friday.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite gained a solid 2.15%,  followed by the S&P 500 advancing 1.22%. The DJIA gained 0.66% remaining the weakest of the three averages.  New NYSE 52-week highs increased to 234 from 106 from  the prior week indicating the strengthening market internals (new lows came in at 79 from 196 the prior week).

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.90%, the S&P 500 is up 5.77%, and the DJIA is up 0.52% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and will become fulled invested on the open on Monday.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had a positive week until Friday when they took a hit settling at the low of the week.. Bonds had another very positive week reaching new highs for the year, as the flight to safety continued because of international events. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –Two ChangesNASI August 15 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 14. (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the upward crossover.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 13th  bullish percentage reading was 39.8% which was much higher than the August 6th bullish percentage reading of 30.9%. Investors are now much more bullish going out six-months into the future than they were a week ago.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 15, while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on August 13.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating the upturn in the red line (Index) and the MACD.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated as of this Friday’s signal yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 August 15 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 4.39% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash But Will Fully Invest on Monday Open

No ETFs are held at this time.  However, the Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating will be purchased at the open on Monday.  These are as follows: EPI (1). SMH (2), IYT (4), EEM (5), and VNQ (7)

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has risen to 18  compared to 1 out of 42 for the prior two weeks, indicating he market has made a u-turn toward the upside in the past week.  The is a positive sign for the market.

Conclusion – Market Reverses To an Up Trend in Past Seven Trading Days

The market again survived the international events with a decent recovery from the Friday lows that helped keep the week’s performance positive for the second consecutive week.  Continued events overseas will most likely rattle the markets, but at this time the short-term trend appears to be reversed to the upside.  However, going into September could result in another swing to the downside. So we’ll see what develops.

The latest Dashboard BUY signal has again occurred near market highs rather than near market lows.  So it is not an ideal entry point.  Nevertheless, we will buy the Top 5 ETFs with a pass rating and use stops of 3% to protect principal.  Once we get through October we will most likelyraise the stops to 7-10% when the sailing should be smoother and higher.