Blog

Aug 30

Market Review COMP August 29 2014

The stock market had another positive week, but with smaller gains than the prior week.  The NASDAQ Composite closed at its high for the year and the S&P 500 closed at a new high above 2000.  The DJIA closed the week near 17100 only slightly below its yearly high.  The NASDAQ has continued to be leader and outpaced the other two averages for the month of September which is typically a down month historically.

As you can see in the accompanying chart the NASDAQ is now well above its last resistance level of 4485 (blue horizontal line).  The blue arrow shows the the slight flattening of the MACD line which is not a concern at the moment.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.11%,  followed by the S&P 500 advancing 0.75%. The DJIA gained 0.57% now the weakest performer of the three averages this past week.. For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 9.68%, the S&P 500 is up 8.39%, and the DJIA is up 3.15% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 8.00% this year, and is fulled invested.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had a positive.  Bonds also moved higher with a number of ETFs hitting their highs for the year.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI August 29 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 14. (Refer to first chart).  However, the MACD is slightly flattening.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 27th  bullish percentage reading was 51.9% which was higher than the August 20th bullish percentage reading of 46.1%. Investors are now more bullish going out six-months into the future than they were a week ago.  This index has jumped about 20  points in the pas tthree weeks indicating the large increase in bullishness by investors.  Remember that a move above 50% bullishness followed by a drop in any subsequent week below that level is a SELL signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 15, while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on August 13.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating the upturn in the red line (Index) and the MACD.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 August 29 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 8.00 % compared an average gain of 7.07% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

The Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating were purchased at the open on August 25, 2014.  These were as follows: EPI,  SMH,  IYT, EEM, and VNQ.  The lastest update is here:

Top 5 ETF Tracking August 29, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has skyrocketed to 34 compared to 20 out of 42 for the prior week, indicating he market has made a solid advance to the upside in the past 19 trading days.  The is a positive sign for the market.

Conclusion – Market Advance Slows Its Pace

The market had small gains heading into the three-day holiday weekend. The Top 5 ETF portfolio has risen 1.38% since its purchase  which is less than the major averages 2.39% advance.  We will keep a 3% trailing stop on all positions through September, and most likely loosen the stop to 7-10% if the market continues its advance during October.  Right how the market trend is up so enjoy it while it lasts.

 

Aug 22

Market Review COMP August 22 2014

The stock market had another positive week  with the NASDAQ Composite closing at its high for the year and the S&P 500 hitting a new high on Thursday.  The DJIA closed the week above 17000 again and is very close to its yearly high.  During the last 11 trading sessions, the NASDAQ has been up nine times, while the other two averages have been up eight times.

As you can see in the accompanying chart the NASDAQ is now well above its last resistance level of 4485 (blue horizontal line).  The blue arrow shows the breakout and continued positive performance.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.67%,  followed by the S&P 500 advancing 1.71%. The DJIA gained 2.03% now the strongest performer of the three averages. For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 8.57%, the S&P 500 is up 7.48%, and the DJIA is up 2.55% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 7.65% this year, and became fulled invested on the open this past Monday.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had a negative week.  Bonds also faltered closing mixed for the week.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI August 22 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 14. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 20th  bullish percentage reading was 39.8% which was much higher than the August 13th bullish percentage reading of 46.1%. Investors are now much more bullish going out six-months into the future than they were a week ago.  This index has jumped about 15 points in the past two showing the large increase in bullishness by investors.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 15, while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on August 13.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating the upturn in the red line (Index) and the MACD.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 August 22 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 7.65 % compared an average gain of 6.20% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

The Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating were purchased at the open last Monday.  These were as follows: EPI,  SMH,  IYT, EEM, and VNQ.  The lastest update is here:

Top 5 ETF Tracking August 22, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has risen to 20  compared to 18  out of 42 for the prior week, indicating he market has made a u-turn toward the upside in the past 12 trading days.  The is a positive sign for the market.

Conclusion – Market Continues Its Advance Higher

The market powered ahead as international tensions abated during the week.  The Top 5 ETF portfolio has risen 1.03% since its purchase on Monday which is less than the major averages 1.54% advance.  We will keep a 3% trailing stop on all positions through September, and most likely loosen the stop to 7-10% if the market continues its advance during October.  Right how the market trend is up so enjoy it while it lasts.

 

Aug 17

Market Review comp August 15 2014

The stock market had another volatile week, especially on Friday based on the news out of Ukraine.   The market dropped 90 points within 30 minutes of the news flash and then worked its way higher by the close.  The NASDAQ Composite closed higher for the day and is only about 21 points away from its early double top area of 4485 (refer to top resistance line on the accompanying chart).   Earlier in the week it bounced up off its 50-dma, as you can see. Based on the strength of the NASDAQ after hitting a low about 7 trading days ago,  it is nearing its yearly high and has resulted in triggering a BUY signal for Indicators #5 and #8 as of the close on Friday.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite gained a solid 2.15%,  followed by the S&P 500 advancing 1.22%. The DJIA gained 0.66% remaining the weakest of the three averages.  New NYSE 52-week highs increased to 234 from 106 from  the prior week indicating the strengthening market internals (new lows came in at 79 from 196 the prior week).

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.90%, the S&P 500 is up 5.77%, and the DJIA is up 0.52% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and will become fulled invested on the open on Monday.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had a positive week until Friday when they took a hit settling at the low of the week.. Bonds had another very positive week reaching new highs for the year, as the flight to safety continued because of international events. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –Two ChangesNASI August 15 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 14. (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the upward crossover.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 13th  bullish percentage reading was 39.8% which was much higher than the August 6th bullish percentage reading of 30.9%. Investors are now much more bullish going out six-months into the future than they were a week ago.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on August 15, while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on August 13.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating the upturn in the red line (Index) and the MACD.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated as of this Friday’s signal yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 August 15 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 4.39% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash But Will Fully Invest on Monday Open

No ETFs are held at this time.  However, the Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating will be purchased at the open on Monday.  These are as follows: EPI (1). SMH (2), IYT (4), EEM (5), and VNQ (7)

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has risen to 18  compared to 1 out of 42 for the prior two weeks, indicating he market has made a u-turn toward the upside in the past week.  The is a positive sign for the market.

Conclusion – Market Reverses To an Up Trend in Past Seven Trading Days

The market again survived the international events with a decent recovery from the Friday lows that helped keep the week’s performance positive for the second consecutive week.  Continued events overseas will most likely rattle the markets, but at this time the short-term trend appears to be reversed to the upside.  However, going into September could result in another swing to the downside. So we’ll see what develops.

The latest Dashboard BUY signal has again occurred near market highs rather than near market lows.  So it is not an ideal entry point.  Nevertheless, we will buy the Top 5 ETFs with a pass rating and use stops of 3% to protect principal.  Once we get through October we will most likelyraise the stops to 7-10% when the sailing should be smoother and higher.

Aug 10

Market Review comp August 8 2014

The stock market had a volatile week resulting from continuing tensions and turmoil overseas and U.S. economic reports.  The big decline on Thursday was recovered on Friday.  So the NASDAQ Composite is resting just below its highest resistance line at 4378 (see blue arrow on accompanying chart).  Also it is just below its 50-dma, but still above the 100-dma. The Dashboard remains on its “1″ SELL signal.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.41%,  followed by the S&P 500 advancing 0.33%. The DJIA gained 0.36% .  New NYSE 52-week highs fell to 106 from  260 the prior week indicating the weakening market internals (new lows came in at 196).

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 4.63%, the S&P 500 is up 4.48%, and the DJIA is down 0.14%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and is still  100% in cash.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had a positive weak. Bonds had a positive week reaching new highs for the year.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI August 8 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 9 . (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the bounce up  below the new double top resistance line.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 6th  bullish percentage reading was 30.9% which was  bit lower than the July 30th  bullish percentage reading of 31.1%. Investors are just slightly less bullish going out six-months into the future.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 10, while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on July 8.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrow indicating the slight upturn in the red line (Index), but still not a crossover to the upside yet.  Remember that any crossover in the upper graph requires a crossover of the MACD in the lower graph.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 August 8 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 2.99% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash

No ETFs are held at this time.

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has been at 1 out of 42 for the past two weeks indicating he damage done to most market segments . 

Conclusion – Market Holds Up in Rough Week

The market survived the international events with a solid rally back on Friday that turned the week’s performance from negative to positive.  Continued events overseas will rattle the markets, but the overall trend will soon reveal itself.  Typically, the September-October months are very weak without outside factors.  So we’ll see what develops. Being 100% in cash is certainly acceptable based on the current situation   We will wait patiently in cash for the next Dashboard buy signal.

Aug 02

Market Review COMP August 1 2014

The stock market was unable to sustain its powerful advance in light of continued geopolitical events, an Argentine debt problem, mixed economic data, and weakening market internals.  The Dashboard remains on its “1″ SELL signal.

On Thursday, the NASDAQ slashed through its upper resistance line (see blue arrow on chart) and 50-dma with gusto and is now only 2.2% away from its 100-dma.  Falling through that level would place the Dashboard at a “0″ SELL reading, the maximum SELL position.  The market’s big gap down and continued losses on Thursday was followed by a minimal rally by 10 AM on Friday, but that fizzled as the market ended the day lower.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite fell the least at 2.18%,  followed by the S&P 500 losing 2.69% it’s worst weekly performance since May 2012. The DJIA lost 2.75% or 467 points .  New NYSE 52-week highs fell to 260 from 435 the prior week indicating the weakening market internals.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 4.22%, the S&P 500 is up 4.15%, and the DJIA is down 0.50%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and is  100% in cash.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had a volatile weak with overall losses for the week, but with a rebound on Friday.  Bonds were mixed with some volatile price changes.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI August 1 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and only 2.2% over its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 9 . (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the bounce up  below the new double top resistance line.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 30th bullish percentage reading was 31.1% which was  bit higher than the July 23rd  bullish percentage reading of 29.6%. Investors are more bullish going out six-months into the future.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 10, while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on July 8.  Note the two downward blue arrows.  (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two downward crossover areas .)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 August 1 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 2.62% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash

No ETFs are held at this time.

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now only 1 out of 42 which indicates the damage done to the market over the past few weeks. 

Conclusion – Market Takes a Beating

The market finally succumbed to  weeks of internal weakness as pointed out in previous blogs and the impact of domestic and international events.  Whether this is down swing will continue over the next few days, weeks or months or instead will be relatively short-lived remains to be seen.

Being 100% in cash is certainly acceptable based on the current situation   We will wait patiently in cash for the next Dashboard buy signal.

Jul 26

Market Review Comp Juy 25 2014

Overall, even with geopolitical events taking center stage the market held its own by not reacting negatively.  The Dashboard remains on its “1″ SELL signal.

The NASDAQ Composite hit a double top at 4485 as evidenced by the blue arrow and the new resistance line at that level.  Either the NASDAQ will break through this level on the upside or test the resistance level penetrated the week before either by bouncing off it to the upside or slashing through it on the downside.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.39%,  followed by the S&P 500 gaining 0.01%. The DJIA actually lost 0.82% and did not hit a new high 2014 last week while the S&P 500 did on Thursday.  New NYSE 52-week highs totaled 435 up from 386 the prior week.  That indicates the market’s internals are strengthening  a bit.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.54%, the S&P 500 is up 7.03%, and the DJIA is up only 2.32%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and is  100% in cash.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had slight losses for the week while bonds were mixed with some volatile price changes.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI July 25 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 9 . (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the bounce up  below the new double top resistance line.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 23rd bullish percentage reading was 29.6% which was lower than the July 16th  bullish percentage reading of 32.4%. Investors are less  bullish going out six-months into the future, as they may be getting concerned about the market’s continued advance without a meaningful correction.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 10, while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on July 8.  Note the two downward blue arrows.  (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two downward crossover areas .)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-July-25-2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 5.26% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash

No ETFs are held at this time.

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now only 8 out of 42, just 2 better than the prior week.  This low level of “pass” ratings in a market making new highs is not encouraging.

Conclusion – Market Holds Steady in Light of Disturbing  Global Events

The market has held up very well in light of global events the past two weeks. Being 100% in cash is certainly acceptable based on the precarious situation overseas.  We will wait patiently in cash for the next Dashboard buy signal.

Jul 20

Market Review COMP July 18 2014

The market had a rough week with geopolitical events taking center stage.  Nevertheless, it recovered nicely by week’s end with small gains.  The Dashboard remains on its “1″ SELL signal.

The NASDAQ Composite dropped below its closest resistance line (see chart to the right) on Thursday, but closed it above it on Friday after a nice recovery from the Thursday lows.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite had the weakest performance  rising 0.38%,  followed by the S&P 500 gaining 0.54%. The DJIA gained the most at 0.92% and hit a new high 2014 during the week as well.  New NYSE 52-week highs totaled 386 above the  308 from the prior week.  That indicates the market’s internals are strengthening slightly.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.12%, the S&P 500 is up 7.03%, and the DJIA is up only 3.16%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and is  100% in cash.

Gold (GLD) and, gold mining issues (GDX) had a wild week, but ended on the downside while bonds continued their march higher.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI July 18 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 9 . (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the bounce up off the resistance line.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 16th bullish percentage reading was 32.4% which was lower than the July 9th  bullish percentage reading of 37.6%. Investors are  less  bullish going out six-months into the future, as they may be getting concerned about the market’s continued advance without a meaningful correction.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 10, while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on July 8.  Note the two downward blue arrows.  (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two potential downward crossover areas if the market falls next week.)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-July 18 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 5.44% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash

No ETFs are held at this time.

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now only 6 out of 42, the lowest number in months.  This decrease is worrisome as many ETFs have experienced MACD sell signals.

Conclusion – Market Holds Steady in Light of Disturbing  Global Events

It looked like the beginning of the correction after the market’t pummeling on Thursday.  Amazingly, the market rebounded smartly and even ended the week higher. So we’ll have to wait and see what develipes.  Being 100% in cash is certainly acceptable based on the precarious situation overseas.  We will wait patiently in cash for the next Dashboard buy signal.

 

 

Jul 12

Market Review COMP July 11 2014

The market experienced two big down days this past week with minor recovery by week’s end.  This down swing resulted in Indicators #5 and #8 issuing Dashboard SELL signals, as the MACD was breached to the downside.  Currently, the Dashboard resides at “1″.  The NASDAQ Composite is well above its 100-dma (Indicator #2) so the likelihood of the Dashboard falling to a “0″ rating is not imminent.

The NASDAQ dropped below its highest resistance level (top blue horizontal line) on Thursday, but was able to close above it by Friday.  Most likely, this index will either form a head-and-shoulders pattern if it continues to decline or hit another yearly high if it rises.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite had the worst performance  falling 1.57%,  followed by the S&P 500 losing 0.90%. The DJIA declined the least at 0.73%.  New NYSE 52-week highs totaled 308, down substantially from  599 the prior week.  That indicates the market’s internals are weakening.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 5.72%, the S&P 500 is up 6.45%, and the DJIA is up only 2.21%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and is now 100% in cash.

Gold (GLD), gold mining issues (GDX) and bonds all solid  advanced during the week. GDX is nearing its highs for the year. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –Two Changes

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 9 . (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the downward crossover..

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 9th bullish percentage reading was 37.6% which was slightly lower than the July 2nd  bullish percentage reading of 38.5%. Investors are slightly less  bullish going out six-months into the future, as they may be getting concerned about the market’s continued advance without a meaningful correction.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 10, while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on July 8.  Note the two downward blue arrows.  (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two potential downward crossover areas if the market falls next week.)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-July 11 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 4.79% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

All  ETFs ( EPI, IYT, XLB, VGT and XLV) were sold at the open on Friday.   You should note that all five had a “fail” rating with a negative reading in their MACD column.  During this last Dashboard BUY signal the portfolio gained only 2.06% compared to the bcnchmark average of 3.28%.  The volatility of EPI and the lost of 2.03% in this ETF contributed to its poorer performance.

See table showing the results of the Top 5: Top 5 ETF Tracking July 11, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now only 7 out of 42, the lowest number in months.  This decrease is worrisome as many ETFs are experiencing MACD sell signals.

Conclusion – Market Sells Off

The market’s two big down days this past week, coupled with many more “fail” ratings in our ETF listing finally resulted in a Dashboard SELL signal.  This signal was not unexpected in light of the market’s weakening internals (e.g., number of new highs compared to prior market peaks).  This week may be the beginning of the third quarter correction that many are expecting.  We will wait patiently in cash for the next Dashboard buy signal.

 

 

Jul 10

COMP July 10 2014

Market Situation

The stock market had two major down days this week culminating in a Dashboard SELL signal “1″ at today’s close.  Indicator #5 (see first chart) and #8 (see second chart) , issued SELL signals on July 9 and 10th, respectively.

Accordingly, the current Top 5 ETF portfolio will be sold at their opening prices on Friday morning.

A full report will be provided this weekend.

NASI July 10 2014

Jul 04

CORRECTION TO JULY 4 BLOG

Market ReviewComp July 4 2014

This will be an abbreviated review this holiday weekend,  The full market review will be provided next weekend.

The stock market continued its upward move with the NASDAQ advancing over 2% this week leading all three averages higher.  Indicator #6 was set to a “0″ reading from a -1 as it

has not changed its value in six months.  This still leaves the Dashboard at a “3″ bullish reading.  This can be seen in the table:

Dashboard-V2-July 4 , 2014

The Top 5 ETFs are doing well,  are aup 8.88% for the YTD as seen on www.dark-liquidity.com.

10% Correction Coming?

Some readers of this site are concerned about the market’s continued advance without having a 10% correction since October 2011.  The question I’ve been asked is

what do my indicators show regarding a possible correction of this magnitude and when will that correction occur.  Most technical indicator are showing a strong market or an overbought condition.

Thus, the market is still in an uptrend and could go even higher.  Nevertheless, the July through September period is typically the weakest time of year for the market.  So we may see a correction during

this time period.  But we won’t know until it occurs.   Therefore, every investor needs to have their stop LIMIT orders or trailing stops in place to protect principal.

Have a great July 4th weekend.