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Although the stock market had experienced a rough ride during the August 8 – 21 period, the market has had a solid reversal since then with all three major averages closing at or reaching all-time highs this past week. It appears that any negative news domestically or internationally hasn’t yet been able to dampen the market’s forward advance. All three major averages rose this past week with the NASDAQ Composite up the least at 1.39%, followed by the S&P 500 up 1.58%, and the DJIA up 2.16%. (see chart to the right )
For the 2017 year-to-date, the DJIA has gained 12.68%, compared to 11.18% for the S&P 500, and 19.79% for the NASDAQ which is still the big leader among these three indexes year-to-date. The BDH strategy has surged the past three weeks and is now up 13.3% for the year outpacing the DJIA and S&P 500. This accomplishment has occurred in spite of our 5% stop limits that took us out of many positions over the course of the year, only to repurchase them at higher prices.
There are still many stocks not participating in this rally. The number of new 52-week NYSE highs increased to 373 from 262 the week before. Normally, a market near its highs has new highs in the area of 700 t0 800 or more. Howover, during the past four weeks the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas advanced from 40.88% to the current 67.99%, a nice rebound in a short time period. Also, the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently at 63.52% recovering from from 56% a month earlier.
Oil and energy stocks were up over 5%, while gold was down 2% and gold miners declined 4%. Fixed income moved down about 1%. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 8, 2016. (see first chart above).
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on August 30 cancelling the previous SELL signal on August 1. (refer to upper chart’s MACD indicator).
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 13, 2017 Bullish Percentage reading was 41.3% up a whooping 12.0 percentage points from the prior week. This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator flashed a BUY signal on September 1 as the MACD had a positive crossover(see green circle in the nearby chart). This confirms the earlier Summation Index positiive crossover a few days earlier (see upper portion of that chart).
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard Remains on “4” MAXIMUM BUY signal
Here is the latest Dashboard. Click on the line below:
I had a software problem posting the full Excel spreadsheet of the Dashboard to this blog, so I’m using WORD instead to post a portion since the beginning of the year. If you need the complete worksheet since 2010 go to the January 2, 2017 blog and click on it there. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up13.3%. It is risen to 5th place out of a 22 strategies followed by that website, rising from 13th place a few months earlier, quite an accomplihsment. See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested
Thus the portfolio consists of BRF, EEM, VGT, XLV, and EWT. All these ETFs have a “pass”rating. Currently 30 ETFs out of our universe of 52 have a pass rating which is still not so great for a market so high. Click on the line below:
Here is the link to the Decision Page. Copy and paste it into your browser: http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. Currently, international stocks and sectors (technology and semi-conductors).
Conclusion — Market Advance Continues
The stock market has now recovered from its August swoon, as mentioned earlier. We’ll see if the market can make further headway.
Be patient and keep the emotion out of the investment equation. Keep your stop LIMITs in place and ride the market as far as it goes. Make sure to check www. dark-liquidity.com for any ETFs in the portfolio that exceed their stop LIMITs . Ride the portfolio until the next BDH sell signal occurs or you are stopped out of any position beforehand.
Enjoy the remainder of this weekend.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.