Blog

Mar 21

Market Review COMP March 20 2015

The stock market experienced a strong upswing after the Fed announcement on Wednesday afternoon.  The market shot up after the announcement and keep going through the close on Friday.  Both the NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 had positive MACD crossovers, with the DJIA coming close to one.  All three major averages are now not only above their 50-dmas, but also their 20-dmas, a very strong weekly performance. On Wednesday, Indicator #5 had a BUY  signal which resulted in a change in the Dashboard to a “2” NEUTRAL reading.

The NASDAQ Composite was back to its leadership role vaulting 3.17% for the week, followed by the S&P 500 up 2.67%, and lastly the DJIA at 2.13%. For the year-to-date,  the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.1%, the S&P 500 is up 2.4%, and the DJIA is up 1.71%. The BDH strategy is up 1.10% for the year. The market internals this past week  strengthened with 422 new highs compared to 180 the prior week.  Moreover, the number of new lows decreased for the first time in a three weeks to 172 from 222 the prior week.

Bond prices skyrocked higher, gold (GLD) and gold miners (GDX) moved higher. Crude oil (USO) stabilized and recovered a bit on Thursday and Friday. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance.

Indicator Review –One Change NASI March 20 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its BUY signal (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD BUY signal on Friday March 20 (refer to first chart) shown by the green  arrow on the bottom of the chart.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest March 18th Bullish percentage reading was 27.2% which was an increase from the March 11th bullish percentage reading of 31.6%.  Investors are less bullish on the market projecting out six months over the past few weeks as the market continues to decline.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a positive crossover on March 19 with its 5-day EMA (green arrow on top in second chart).  The MACD has not yet crossed over to the upside.  A few positive days next week will result in a positive crossover and Dashboard BUY signal.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-Mar -20-2015_WC (1)

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 14th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site, a loss of tenpositions since last week. Currently since the last buy signal, the BDH strategy it is up 1.10% while the three major averages gained 3.37%.  So the BDH strategy is now underperforming market so far this year, as the market zoomed higher this past week.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio is 100% in cash as of the market open on March 12.  Below is the link to track the portfolio performance since the last BUY signal until the last SELL signal:

Top 5 ETF Tracking March 12, 2015

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had  22  ETFs with a “pass” rating this week compared to 1 the prior week.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

If you look at the Decision page you will note that TLT ( #3), VNQ (#2) and UUP (#6)  are all among the top  ranking, still hanging in as the market is rises.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Market Turns UP on Strong Move

The positive market reaction to the Fed’s actions on Wednesday afternoon led to a powerful rally going through the Friday close.  The NASDAQ Composite is only 26 points away from its March 2000 high close of 5048 while the Russell 2000 (small caps) made an all-time high this past week.  Both the S&P 500 and DJIA still need to move higher to surpass their prior 2015 highs set within the past few weeks.  A continued advance next week will result in a BUY signal on Indicator #8, and thus on the Dashboard.

If we do receive a Dashboard BUY signal this  coming week, it will again not be at an optimal point.  That is because most profitable buy signals come after signficant market decline, not a minor decline as we just experienced.  So be very careful at this juncture.  With the market at or near all-time highs the risk is higher than normal for a pullback of at least 10%, but that doesn’t mean one will happen soon.  So stay turned for the next signal.

I will post an interim blog if there is a Dashboard BUY signal during the week.  You can easily determine whether the signal occurs by monitoring Indicator #8 at each day’s close, after the chart is updated, usually after 4:50 PM EST.  Just save it as a favorite and click on it after that time.

I was interviewed in the March 2015 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities which focused on the BDH strategy.  Subscribers to the magazine can see the article in their monthly issue or online.  The magazine does not permit a link to their magazine, as they consider it copyrighted material.  Paid subscribers to stockcharts.com can go to a link on the site to pull up the magazine issue.  On stockcharts.com click on the Members tab.  On right side go to section titled Additional Tools.  The fifth item down is Stock & Commodities Archive where you can pull up the March issue and download the interview starting on page 36.  I have the extra membership.

Mar 14

Market Review COMP March 13 2015

The stock market had a volatile week where the DJI had three back-to-back triple digit moves greater than 200 points, and closed the week with losses.  All three major averages are on MACD negative crossovers, and the DJIA and S&P 500 are both below their respective 50-dmas, and are both down for three consecutive weeks.

On Wednesday, Indicator #8 had a SELL signal which was broadcast in an interim blog after the market closed.  All ETFs were sold at the open on Thursday.

For the first time in five weeks the NASDAQ Composite had worse performance than the other two averages.  This is a negative sign as the NASDAQ normally leads the market in both directions.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite was up down 1.13%, its second  consecutive losing week in the last five weeks. The S&P 500 was down 0.86%, and the DJIA was down 0.60%.     For the year-to-date,  the NASDAQ Composite is up 2.9%, the S&P 500 is down 0.3%, and the DJIA is down 0.41%. Thus, the market except for the NASDAQ is basically flat.  The BDH strategy is up 1.10% for the year. The market internals this past week  weakened again with 180 new highs compared to 362 the prior week.  Moreover, the number of new lows increased for the third time in a three weeks to 222 from 98.

Bond prices rose while gold (GLD), gold miners (GDX) fell. Crude oil (USO) fell hard nearing its lows for the year. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance.

Indicator Review –One ChangeNASI March 13 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its BUY signal (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD SELL signal on March 6 (refer to first chart) and the red arrow on the negative MACD crossover.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest March 11th Bullish percentage reading was 31.6% which was a decline from the March 4th bullish percentage reading of 39.8%.  Investors are less bullish on the market projecting out six months over the past few weeks as the market continues to decline.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a negative crossover on March 6 with its 5-day EMA (red arrow on second chart).  The MACD has crossed over to the downside (orange arrow on chart) on March 11 (Wednesday).

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-Mar -13-2015_WC (1)

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 4th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site, a gain of two positions since last week. Currently since the last buy signal, the BDH strategy it is up 1.10% while the three major averages gained 0.36%.  So the BDH strategy outperformed the market so far this year.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio is 100% in cash as of the market open on March 12.  Below is the link to track their performance since the last BUY signal:

Top 5 ETF Tracking March 12, 2015

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 1 ETF (UUP — US Dollar Bull) with a “pass” rating this week compared to 4 the prior week. The large number of ETFs failing the buy test is an indication that the market may have put in a top here.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

If you look at the Decision page you will note that TLT (30 year treasury ETF), VNQ (REIT)  are among the top 7, still hanging in asthe market is falls..  Also, note that these two ETFs continue to have “fail” ratings the past five weeks.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Market Turns Down

The big down day on Friday coupled with MACD negative crossovers on the three major averages and many ETFs is cause for concern.  A further decline next week will likely trigger an Indicator #8 SELL signal which in turn will result in a Dashboard “1” SELL signal. Place your stops at appropriate levels for your personal risk tolerance.  I will post during the week if a SELL signal occurs, but you can easily check the NASI chart above for a crossover if you save it as a favorite and check it at the close each day.

I was interviewed in the March 2015 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities which focused on the BDH strategy.  Subscribers to the magazine can see the article in their monthly issue or online.  The magazine does not permit a link to their magazine, as they consider it copyrighted material.  Paid subscribers to stockcharts.com can go to a link on the site to pull up the magazine issue.  On stockcharts.com click on the Members tab.  On right side go to section titled Additional Tools.  The fifth item down is Stock & Commodities Archive where you can pull up the March issue and download the interview starting on page 36.  I have the extra membership.

Mar 11

Market Comments NASI March 11 2015

The continued decline in the stock market the last few days has resulted in a SELL signal on  Indicator #8 as the MACD experienced a negative crossover today (refer to bottom red arrow on chart) to confirm the Index crossing over its 5 day ema a few days earlier.  Therefore, all five ETFs will be sold at the opening price on Thursday morning.  A full report will be provided this weekend.

Mar 07

Market Review COMP March 6 2015

The stock market started the week with a gain on Monday, but then lost its momentum the remainder of the week, and closed Friday with a sizable down day.  This resulted in a NASDAQ Composite MACD negative crossover on Friday resulting in an Indicator #5 SELL signal and a Dashboard reading of “2” Neutral.  Moreover, the DJIA and the S &P 500 Indexes also experienced negative MACD crossovers.

For the fourth consecutive week the S&P 500 and DJIA fell behind the leadership of the NASDAQ Composite in percentage terms.  For the week, the NASDAQ Composite was up down 0.73%, its first losing week in the last four weeks. The S&P 500 was down 1.58%, and the DJIA was down 1.52%.  Both the latter two indexes fell below their 20-dma, and both are just above their 50-dmas.  The NASDAQ Composite is still above both these moving averages.

For the year-to-date,  the NASDAQ Composite is up 4.0%, the S&P 500 is up 0.6%, and the DJIA is up 0.19%. Thus, the market except for the NASDAQ is basically flat.  The BDH strategy is up 1.40% for the year. The market internals this past week  weakened with 362 new highs compared to 419 the prior week.  Moreover, the number of new lows increased for the second time in a few weeks to 98 from 55.

Bond prices, gold (GLD), gold miners (GDX) rallied, crude oil (USO) all showed significant losses. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance.

Indicator Review –One ChangeNASI March 6 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its BUY signal (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD SELL signal on March 6 (refer to first chart) and the red arrow on the negative MACD crossover.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest March 4th Bullish percentage reading was 39.8% which was a decline from the February 25th bullish percentage reading of 45.4%.  Investors are less bullish on the market projecting out six months.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a negative crossover on March 6 with its 5-day EMA (red arrow on second chart).  The MACD has not yet crossed over to the downside (orange arrow on chart), but a further decline this week could trigger a sell signal on this indicator.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-Mar -6-2015_WC (1)

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 6th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site.  Currently since the last buy signal the BDH strategy it is up 1.40% while the three major averages gained 1.79%.  So the BDH strategy is slightly under performing the market.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested. However, all The Top 5 ETFs (XHB, XRT, XLY ,IYT, and XLI) have a  “fail” rating, as they have negative MACD crossovers. All these ETFs will be sold if the Dashboard experiences a SELL signal at any time this week on a closing basis.

Below is the link to track their performance since the BUY signal:

Top 5 ETF Tracking March 6, 2015

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 4 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week compared to 28 the prior week. This large decrease in the number of ETFs passing the buy test is an indication that the market may be putting in a top here.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

If you look at the Decision page you will note that TLT (30 year treasury ETF), VNQ (REIT)  are among the top 12, still hanging in there even though they are defensive issues and usually rise when the market is falling or stalling.  Also, note that these two ETFs continue to have “fail” ratings the past four weeks.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Market May Be Turning Down

The big down day on Friday coupled with MACD negative crossovers on the three major averages and many ETFs is cause for concern.  A further decline next week will likely trigger an Indicator #8 SELL signal which in turn will result in a Dashboard “1” SELL signal. Place your stops at appropriate levels for your personal risk tolerance.  I will post during the week if a SELL signal occurs, but you can easily check the NASI chart above for a crossover if you save it as a favorite and check it at the close each day.

Mar 01

Note that this week’s posting is divided into two parts.  The first part is the regular weekend blog.  The second part contains my comments on the 2015 ETF.com Inside ETFs Conference.

Part 1. Market Review COMP Feb 27 2015

The stock market started the week with decent gains through Thursday, but gave back most the gains by Friday’s close.  Overall the market averages didn’t change very much.    For the third consecutive week the S&P 500 and DJIA fell behind the leadership of the NASDAQ Composite in percentage terms.  The former two averages closed at all-time highs  mid-week while the NASDAQ Composite is still closing in on its March 2000 high of 5084, currently closing the week at 4963.53.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite was up a measly 0.15%, well below the gains of the prior three weeks. The S&P 500 was down 0.27%, and the DJIA was down only 0.04%.  Clearly the NASDAQ Composite has taken the lead in recent weeks which is a very positive sign going forward, as that is the expected course of events in a market moving higher.  Note that this index has broken through its top resistance line on the accompanying chart as shown by the green arrow.  Breaking through the triple top is a very positive market action and is typically followed by more market upside which occurred again this week, but at a slower pace

For the year 2015,  the NASDAQ Composite is up 4.80%, the S&P 500 is up 2.21%, and the DJIA is up 1.74%. Thus, for the year-to-date the market has basically moved up slightly.  The BDH February 6, 2015 BUY signal was on the mark as the BDH ETF portfolio has gained 2.98% since that date, although it lost 0.41% for the week. The market internals this past week were mixed again with 419 new highs compared to 332 the prior week.  Moreover, the number of new lows increased for the first time in a few weeks to 55 from 37.

Bond prices, gold (GLD), and gold miners (GDX) rallied, while crude oil (USO) was mostly flat and unchanged. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance.

Indicator Review –No Changes NASI Feb 27 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its recent BUY signal (Refer to first chart).  An uptrend is clearly in progress.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD BUY signal on February 3 only a few days after it had a SELL signal on January 30th (refer to first chart).  Note the slight downward move of the MACD upper line (blue arrow) which may be the beginning of a future price decline in the index.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 25th Bullish percentage reading was 45.4% which was a slight decline from the February 18th bullish percentage reading of 47.0%.  Investors are a bit less bullish on the market projecting out six months.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a positive crossover on February 5 with its 5-day EMA and a confirming the MACD BUY signal on February 6th.  Thus, this indicator is still now on a new BUY signal.  View the second chart above.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-Feb-27-2015_WC (1)

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 9th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site.  Currently it is up 2.98% while the three major averages gained 3.11%.  So the BDH is slightly underforming the market.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested. The Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating (XHB, XRT, XLY ,IYT, and XLI)  are all sector plays. Note that IYT a nd XLI bear close watching as they near the 20 ranking level.  If they fall to rank 21 or lower at any day on the close, then they should be sold and replaced by the highest ranking ETF with a “pass” rating that is not already in the portfolio. Below is the link to track their performance since the BUY signal:

Top 5 ETF Tracking February 27, 2015

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had 28 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week compared to 27 the prior week. This minimal increase in the number of ETFs passing the buy test is an indication that not all stocks or ETFs are participating in this market rally.  That is why it is important to be invested in the strongest areas of the market, and that is why relative strength investing works.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

If you look at the Decision page you will note that TLT (30 year treasury ETF), VNQ (REIT) and XLU (utilities) are among the top 14, still hanging in there even though they are defensive issues and rise when the market is falling or stalling.  Also, note that these three ETFs continue to have “fail” ratings the past three weeks which is not surprising as the market advances higher week after week.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Market Takes a Rest

The uptrend remains in force with small market moves last week providing the market with a well-deserved respite. After the market’s decline in January, I mentioned that a possible upswing could occur in February and that certainly was the case, as the NASDAQ Composite tacked on 7.08% and the other two averages about 5.5% each for the month.

Historically, the first half of March produces increasing equity prices, while the second half produces the reverse.  We will see what happens this time around.  Enjoy the uptrend and place your stops at appropriate levels for your personal risk tolerance.

Part 2. ETF.com 2015 Inside ETFs Conference

The 2015 ETFcom Inside ETFs conference at the Westin Diplomat Hotel in Hollywood, FL from January 25-28 was a world-class event with over 1,900 attendees, easily exceeding the previous attendance record of 1,500 at the 2014 conference. This was the eighth year of the conference and it has grown in size every year, as ETFs have become a cost-effective replacement for traditional mutual funds.

This year over half the attendees were financial advisors. With over 1,660 ETFs valued at $2 trillion, the explosive nature of this product growth has been exceptional. Every year there are new offerings from providers and other interested parties. I enjoyed attending the conference sessions touring the exhibit hall, and being able to speak with many knowledgeable individuals about the latest developments in the field.

There were  pre-conference ETF University sessions on Sunday on ETFs 101, 201 and 301 followed by multiple guest speakers discussing ETF Portfolio X-Ray, and other topics. During each conference day there were multiple topic sessions to select from depending on your preference. To view a number of the conference presentation materials go to www.etf.com conferences tab and then look for the 2015 presentations tab on the left side of the site. In particular I highly recommend Rob Arnott presentation which provides an analysis of the benefits of using smart beta strategies compared to a standard benchmark. He believes that using other than market capitalization indexes provide a better return over the long-term and he reviews extensive research that bears this out. Also, another a fascinating presentation was the keynote titled “The World Is Flat” which covered the current state of ETFs and what the future holds.

The conference offered not only top-notch industry practitioners, but also a diverse group of high-quality speakers including smart-beta developer Robert Arnott, Chairman and CEO of Research Affiliates, and bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach CEO and CIO of DoubleLine Capital and manager of the just launched SPDR DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF (TOTL), and Ric Edelman who is one of the top independent advisors in the country who manages $14 billion at his firm. Moreover, the well-attended exhibit hall contained ETF providers and issuers, strategists, and a handful of money management firms some of which who use tactical asset allocation and sector rotation.

With ETFs continuing to expand in assets under management, coupled with over 900 ETFs in registration, and with the rapid introduction and growth of rob-advisors, there is no question that the mutual fund companies are feeling the competitive pressure. About 21% of institutions use ETFs compared to about 15% in 2011. This growth will continue for the foreseeable future, as 47% of the advisers surveyed indicated that they will increase their use of ETFs.

Automated personal investment advisory services such as Wealthfront ($1.5 billion of AUM) and Betterment are offering retail investors and others very low-cost (e.g., 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $10,000), risk-defined, diversified, tax-efficient ETF portfolios with automated computer algorithmic management. This type of robo-advisor service will further erode the mutual fund incoming money flows.

One of the most energetic, lively and well-attended sessions was the face-off of Ric Edelman and Adam Nash, CEO of Wealthfront on the robo-advisor revolution. This was a truly fascinating debate on where client portfolio management is headed and the advantages of non-human intervention in the investment management process. Interestingly, clients at Edelman’s firm pay the same fees for using their regular financial advisory service, as do those who use their Edelman Online, their robo-advisor service. Many clients use both services for different purposes.

Overall, this is the premier ETF conference.  For self-directed investors and financial advisors this conference offers a wide-ranging educational opportunity that can’t be beat.  I highly recommend it for next year, where the conference will be offered at the same resort location from January 24-27, 2016.

 

Feb 21

Market Review COMP Feb 20 2015

The stock market had another positive week, although the advance was muted.  For the second consecutive week the S&P 500 and DJIA fell behind the leadership of the NASDAQ Composite in percentage terms.  The former two averages closed at all-time highs while the NASDAQ Composite is closing in on its March 2000 high of 5084, currently closing the week at 4955.97.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.04% well below the gains of the prior two weeks. The S&P 500 was up 0.63%, and the DJIA was up only 0.67%.  Clearly the NASDAQ Composite has taken the lead in recent weeks which is a very positive sign going forward, as that is the expected course of events in a market moving higher.  Note that this index has broken through its top resistance line on the accompanying chart as shown by the green arrow.  Breaking through the triple top is a very positive market action and is typically followed by more market upside which occurred this week.

For the year 2015,  the NASDAQ Composite is up 4.6%, the S&P 500 is up 2.5%, and the DJIA is up 1.8%. Thus, for the year-to-date the market has basically moved up slightly.  The BDH February 6, 2015 BUY signal was on the mark as the BDH ETF portfolio gained 3.39% since that date.  The market internals this past week were mixed again with only 332 new highs compared to 339 the prior week.  Moreover, the number of new lows decreased again to 37  from 63 the week before which is a positive sign.

Bond prices, gold (GLD), gold miners (GDX) and crude oil (USO) all experienced price declines. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI Feb 20 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its recent BUY signal (Refer to first chart).  An uptrend is clearly in progress.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD BUY signal on February 3 only a few days after it had a SELL signal on January 30th (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 18th Bullish percentage reading was 47.0% which was a nice bounce from the February 11th bullish percentage reading of 40.0%.  Investors are now more bullish on the market projecting out six months.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a positive crossover on February 5 with its 5-day EMA and a confirming the MACD BUY signal on February 6th.  Thus, this indicator is still now on a new BUY signal.  View the second chart above.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-Feb-20-2015_WC (1)

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 7th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site.  Currently it is up 3.39% while the three major averages gained 3.08%.  So the BDH is outperforming the market as expected.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested. The Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating (XHB, XRT, XLY ,IYT, and XLI)  are all sector plays. Below is the link to track their performance since the BUY signal:

Top 5 ETF Tracking February 20, 2015

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had 27 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week compared to 26 the prior week. This minimal increase in the number of ETFs passing the buy test is an indication that not all stocks or ETFs are participating in this market rally.  That is why it is important to be invested in the strongest areas of the market, and that is why relative strength investing works.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

If you look at the Decision page you will note that TLT (30 year treasury ETF), VNQ (REIT) and XLU (utilities) are among the top 13, still hanging in there even though they are defensive issues and rise when the market is falling or stalling.  Also, not that these three ETFs continue to have “fail” ratings the past three weeks which is not surprising as the market advances higher week after week.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Market Makes Small Move to New Highs

The uptrend remains in force with a small advance this past week.  Perhaps the market is get tired here and needs to pause before going higher.  That would be fine as the market is not expected go straight up without a rest. Continued news domestically and internationally will impact the markets as they always do, but no changes are necessary with the Top 5 ETFs. The BDH rules-based strategy provides the guidance needed to invest unemotionally and provides the BUY and SELL signals based on our criteria. Therefore, enjoy the uptrend and place your stops at appropriate levels for your personal risk tolerance.

Feb 16

Market Review COMP Feb 13 2015

The stock market had another positive week, although the S&P 500 and DJIA fell behind the leadership of the NASDAQ Composite in percentage advance terms.  The former two averages closed at all-time highs while the NASDAQ Composite is closing in on its March 2000 high of 5o84, currently closing the week at 4893.84.  This past week the general market was much more subdued that the prior week.  For example, the DJIA had no days of 200 point moves and two days of moves below 150 points.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite was up a solid 3.15% exceeding its 2.35% move the prior week. The S&P 500 was up 2.02% below its 3.03% reading the week before, and the DJIA was up only 1.09% compared to 3.84% the week before.  Clearly the NASDAQ Composite has taken the lead in recent weeks which is a positive sign going forward, as that is the expected course of events in a market moving higher.  Note that this index has broken through its top resistance line on the accompanying chart as shown by the green arrow.  Breaking through a triple top is a very positive market action and is typically followed by more market upside.

For the year 2015,  the NASDAQ Composite is up 3.33%, the S&P 500 is up 1.85%, and the DJIA is up 1.10%. Thus, for the year-to-date the market has basically done very little.  The BDH February 6, 2015 BUY signal was on the mark as the BDH ETF portfolio gained an average of  2.43%  for the week and  year-to-date and being invested for only 5 days this  year so far.  The market internals were mixed again with only 339 new highs compared to 486 the prior week.  Moreover, the number of new lows decreased again to 63  from 111 the week before which is a positive sign.

Both bond prices, gold (GLD) and gold miners (GDX) experienced price declines. . In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance. Crude oil had a volatile week with gains the last two days. closing the week at $51.21 per barrel.  It appears that the low of $44.50 may hold here.  Right now oil has hit bottom and is in a uptrend with a consolidation the past two weeks.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI Feb 15 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its recent BUY signal (Refer to first chart).  Look for this indicator to be active until the trend becomes clearer.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD BUY signal on February 3 only a few days after it had a SELL signal on January 30th (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 11th Bullish percentage reading was 40.0% which was a nice bounce from the February 4th bullish percentage reading of 35.5%.  Investors are now more bullish on the market projecting out six months.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a positive crossover on February 5 with  its 5-day EMA and a confirming the MACD BUY signal on February 6th.  Thus, this indicator is still now on a new BUY signal.  View the second chart above.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-Feb-13-2015_WC (1)

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 7th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site, as the portfolio is 100% in cash.  Currently it is up 2.43% since the open of trading this past Monday while the three major averages gained 2.11%.  So the BDH is outperforming for the week, as well.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio is 100% invested as of the open this past Monday. The Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating were purchased at the open on Monday morning : XHB, XRT, XLY ,IYT, and XLI.  Note that these are all sector plays, and that their ranking was 2,7,11,12, and 13 respectively.  While this is not optimal, as we would have preferred to invest in those with a ranking of 5 and higher that was not the case this week as a number of the higher ranked ETFs had a “fail” rating.  We need to follow the rules of the strategy.  Below is the link to track their performance:

Top 5 ETF Tracking February 13, 2015

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had 26 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week compared to 21 the prior week. This increase in the number of ETFs passing the buy test is an indication that the market is making progress to the upside.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

If you look at the Decision page you will note that TLT (30 year treasury ETF), VNQ (REIT) and XLU (utilities) are still among the top 13, but losing momentum in the past week.  Also, not that these three ETFs have “fail” ratings the past two weeks indicating a potential change in the stock market from down to  strengthening market situation as those ETFs are more defensive in nature and rise when the market is falling or stalling

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Market Blasts to New Highs

As mentioned in the blog two weeks ago: “Beginning the year with a negative month is not a good omen going forward.  But remember the same thing happened last year and the market had a huge rally in February and the year had a double digit return.”  The past two weeks may be the start of a big rally this month.  And if it is, then BDH portfolio will fully participate.  Enjoy the uptrend and place your stops at appropriate levels for your personal risk tolerance.

Feb 08

Market Review COMP Feb 6 2015

The stock market had a very positive week with all three major averages pushing ahead trying to capture their previous highs. The DJIA had three positive days of over 200 points this past week.  The NASDAQ’s +2.35% weekly performance erased the previous Friday’s (January 30) SELL signal on Indicator#5 with a BUY signal on Tuesday February 3rd as the MACD experienced a positive crossover.

Bond prices got crushed this week with yields rising after a big run up in price in prior weeks. In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance. Crude oil had a 8% higher move on Friday January 30th and continued its advance this past week with a few big down days in between.  Perhaps the lows are in near $44.50.  We will wait and see what happens.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite was up 2.35%, followed by the S&P 500 up 3.03%, and the DJIA up 3.84%.  For the year 2015,  the NASDAQ Composite is up 0.18%, the S&P 500 is down 0.17%, and the DJIA is up 0.01%. Thus, for the year-to-date the market has basically done nothing.  So, the BDH December 8, 2014 SELL signal has stood the test of time without giving up any upside.  The market internals were mixed with 486 new highs compared to 616 the prior week.  Moreover, the number of new lows decreased to 111 from 245 the week before which is a positive sign.  All three major averages are above their 50-dma which is a positive going forward.

Indicator Review –Two ChangesNASI Feb 6 2015

Two Indicators had BUY signals this past week resulting in a Dasbhoard “3” BUY signal.

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its recent BUY signal (Refer to first chart).  Look for this indicator to be active until the trend becomes clearer.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD BUY signal on February 3 only a few days after it had a SELL signal on January 30th (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 4 Bullish percentage reading was 35.5% which was a big drop from the January 29th bullish percentage reading of 44.2%.  Investors are now much less bullish on the market projecting out six months. This indicator has been see-sawing up and down with no clear cut pattern.  Remember that it has to drop to below 25% in one week and then rise above that level in a subsequent for a BUY signal to be generated.  That is not currently on the horizon.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a positive crossover on February 5 with  its 5-day EMA and a confirming the MACD BUY signal on February 6th.  Thus, this indicator is still now on a new BUY signal.  View the second chart above.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-Feb-6-2015_WC (1)

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 8th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site, as the portfolio is 100% in cash.  On Monday the portfolio will be invested in the Top 5 ETFs with a “pass”rating.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio remains 100% in cash.  Since the Dashboard is on a “3” BUY signal as of the close on Friday, the Top 5 ETFs with a “pass” rating will be purchased at the open on Monday morning.  According to www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold those ETFs are: XHB, XRT, XLY ,IYT, and XLI.  Note that these are all sector plays, and that their ranking is 2,7,11,12, and 13 respectively.  While this is not optimal, as we would have preferred to invest in those with a ranking of 5 and higher that was not the case this week as a number of the higher ranked ETFs had a “fail” rating.  We need to follow the rules of the strategy.

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had 21 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week compared to 13 the prior week. The small number of ETFs passing the buy test is an indication that the market advance is being not being totally inclusive of all industry groups.

If you look at the Decision page you will note that TLT (30 year treasury ETF), VNQ (REIT) and XLU (utilities) are among the top 8.  This is a very rare occurrence and these ETFs are more defensive in nature indicating a bifurcated market.  Also, not that these have “fail” ratings this past week indicating a potential strengthening market situation as those ETFs are more defensive in nature.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — 100% Invested At Monday’s Open

Based on the Dashboard BUY signal on Friday, the 5 ETFs mentioned above will be purchased at the open.  While this may not be an optimal entry point as the market is near its prior highs, we will take the BUY signal as stated.  As mentioned in the last blog: “Beginning the year with a negative month is not a good omen going forward.  But remember the same thing happened last year and the market had a huge rally in February and the year had a double digit return.”  This may be the start of a big rally.  And if it is, then BDH portfolio will participate as of Monday morning.

 

 

Feb 01

Market Review comp January 30 2015

The stock market experienced a volatile negative week with the DJIA moving over 200 points the last four days, closing the week with a 250 point loss.  Similarly, the NASDAQ Composite fell a big 90 points on Tuesday and then had three days of approximately 45 point moves, two of which were negative.  As you can see in the accompanying chart, the NASDAQ pierced its 100-dma (green line) on Thursday, but managed to close above it.  However, its MACD had a negative crossover on Friday resulting in a SELL signal on Indicator#5 (see blue arrow at bottom of chart) and a Dashboard “1” SELL signal as well.  Another negative is that this index is also below its 50-dma as well.

Bonds had another blockbuster week on the upside closing on new highs for 2015 and exceeding the 2014 highs as well.

However gold (GLD) and gold miners (GDX) had a mixed week with nothing to show for it. In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance. Oil had a 8% higher move on Friday.  Perhaps the lows are in.  We will wait and see what happens.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite was down 2.58%, followed by the S&P 500 down 2.77%, and the DJIA down 2.87%.  For the year 2015 and the month of January, the NASDAQ Composite is down 2.13%, the S&P 500 is down 3.10%, and the DJIA is down 3.69%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio has been in cash since the December 8, 2014 SELL signal.  The market internals were mixed with were 616 new highs compared to 516 the prior week, but that is because over 100 fixed income vehicles and preferred stocks made new highs.  Moreover, the number of new lows increased to 245 from 165 the week before.

Indicator Review – One ChangeNASI January 30 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its recent BUY signal (Refer to first chart).  Look for this indicator to be active until the trend becomes clearer.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a MACD SELL signal on January 30th only a week after it had a BUY singal January 23rd as the MACD had a clear cut negative crossover this past Friday )refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest January 29th  Bullish percentage reading was 44.2% which was a big gain from the January 22nd bullish percentage reading of 37.1%.  Investors are now much more bullish on the market projecting out six months.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a negative crossover on January 6 with  its 5-day EMA and the MACD experienced a SELL signal on January 7th.  Thus this indicator is still on a SELL signal.  View the second chart above.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-Jan-30-2015_WC (1)

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015 the BDH portfolio is in 5th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site, as the portfolio is 100% in cash.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio remains 100% in cash awaiting the next BUY signal. The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 13 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week compared to 20 the prior week. The small number of ETFs passing the buy test is an indication that the market advance is being not being totally inclusive of all industry groups.  Strong stocks in specific sectors such as fixed income, utilities, REITs and biotechnology are powering the market higher.  The US Dollar and healthcare are also doing well.

If you look at the Decision page you will note that TLT (30 year treasury ETF), VNQ (REIT) and XLU (utilities) are among the top 5.  This is a very rare occurrence and these ETFs are more defensive in nature indicating a bifurcated market.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Remain Safely In Cash

The market tumbled last week in a choppy and unclear manner.  Beginning the year with a negative month is not a good omen going forward.  But remember the same thing happened last year and the market had a huge rally in February and the year had a double digit return.

The price action in gold, the U.S. Dollar and oil will continue to impact the market going forward.  We will wait for the Dashboard BUY signal before taking action.

Jan 24

 Market Review COMP jan 23 2015

The stock market experienced a positive holiday week, as all three major averages gained for the week.  However, the DJIA had a triple digit loss on Friday to close the week, as the NASDAQ advanced.  The NASDAQ Composite’s upcoming resistance level at 4815 s also a potential triple top. If it blasts through that level then that index will be at a new 2015 high. On the otherhand,  if it bounces off that level to the downside that is a negative for the market.  This index is only 50 points away from 4815 and is above both its 50- and 100-dma which are positive developments.  Additionally, on Friday the positive crossing of the MACD indicator resulted in an Indicator #5 BUY signal resulting in a Dashboard reading of “2” Neutral.

Bonds consolidated during the week closing at new  yearly highs. However gold (GLD) and gold miners (GDX) surged higher early in the week, then gave back all or more of the gain by week’s end. In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance. Oil continued to make new lows.  It appears that the bottom for oil has not yet been reached.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite was up 2.66%, followed by the S&P 500 up 1.60%, and the DJIA up 0.92%.  For the year 2015 so far, the NASDAQ Composite is up 0.5%, the S&P 500 is down -0.3%, and the DJIA is down 0.8%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio is in cash.  The market internals improved with were 516 new highs compared to 479 the prior week, but that is because over 100 fixed income vehicles and preferred stocks made new highs.  The number of new lows dropped to 165 from 338 the week before.

Indicator Review – One ChangeNASI Jan 23 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a sell signal on Thursday and a  buy signal on Friday of the week of January 12th, as the 100-dma was pierced to the downside and upside respectively.  (Refer to first chart).  Look for this indicator to be active until the trend becomes clearer.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a MACD BUY signal on January 23rd as the MACD had a clear cut positive crossover.  This cancels the January 2, 2015  SELL signal (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest January 22nd  Bullish percentage reading was 37.1% which was a big drop from the January 15th bullish percentage reading of 46.1%.  Investors are now much less bullish on the market projecting out six months.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a negative crossover on January 6 with  its 5-day EMA and the MACD experienced a SELL signal on January 7th.  Thus this indicator is still on a SELL signal.  View the second chart.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-Jan-23-2015_WC (1)

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015 the BDH portfolio is in 9th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site, as the portfolio is 100% in cash.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio remains 100% in cash awaiting the next BUY signal. The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had 20 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week compared to 15 the prior week. The small number of ETFs passing the buy test is an indication that the market advance is being not being totally inclusive of all industry groups.  Strong stocks in specific sectors such as fixed income, utilities, REITs and biotechnology are powering the market higher.  The US Dollar and healthcare are also doing well.

If you look at the Decision page you will note that TLT (30 year treasury ETF), UUP (Dollar Bull) and XLU (utilities) are among the top 5.  This is a very rare occurrence and these ETFs are more defensive in nature indicating a bifurcated market.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Remain Safely In Cash

The market stabilized last week and worked its way higher as the NASDAQ Composite led the way higher  The NASDAQ and S&P 500 are above their respective50-dmas which is a positive sign going forward.  The price action in gold, the U.S. Dollar and oil will continue to impact the market going forward.  We will wait for the Dashboard BUY signal before taking action.