Note that our website is now downloadable to mobile devices as of April 1, 2017.
The stock market has rallied the past two weeks with the NASDAQ Composite hitting multiple new all-time highs this past week. That index has advanced 3.7% the past two weeks. The big tech stocks continue to advance.
For the week, the DJIA fell 0.27%, the S&P 500 gained 0.54%, and the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.19%. For the 2017 year-to-date, the DJIA has gained 9.20%, compared to 10.44% for the S&P 500, and a 18.66% for the NASDAQ which is still the big leader among these three indexes year-to-date. The BDH strategy has lagged the market up 8.28%. Over the course of the year, our 5% stop limit took us out of the market, only to return at higher prices. Obviously, this tight a stop did not work in our favor. In hindsight, any stop over 8% would have kept us in the market for most of the year.
There are still many stocks not participating in this rally, but the number of new 52-week NYSE highs expanded to 431 compared to 323 the week before. Normally, at or near bull market highs there are well over 700 new highs. Moreover, during the past two weeks the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas jumped to 71.42% from reading in the mid-50%. Also, the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma is currently 68.00% not moving up much over the last few weeks from around 65%.
Oil, energy stocks had a bad week falling over 2.5%, while , gold, gold miners and fixed income all advanced nicely In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 8, 2016. (see first chart above).
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on July 13 cancelling the previous SELL signal on June 9. (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 19, 2017 Bullish Percentage reading was 35.5% up a whopping 7.2 percentage points from the prior week. This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. The MACD did cross above the 5 day ema (see red circle) in the upper portion of the accompanying chart on July 18. This confirms the earlier Summation Index crossover a handful of days earlier.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard Now on “4” Maximum BUY Signal
Here is the latest Dashboard:
I have a software problem posting the full Excel spreadsheet of the Dashboard to this blog, so I’m using WORD instead to post a portion since the beginning of the year. If you need the complete worksheet since 2010 go to the January 2, 2017 blog and click on it there. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 5.19%. It is in 11h place out of a 20 strategies followed by that website. See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page. Note that four of the higher ranked strategies are invested in the QQQ and two have leverage.
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested as of July 14, 2017
Four additional ETFs were purchased on this past Monday’s open. They were EEM, PBW, VGT and XLV. They join BRF with the portfolio now fully invested. In the Top 5 ETFs on etfscreen.com for our strategy, four are emerging market ETFs. I decided to select EEM to represent that asset class so as not to have all emerging market ETFs in the portfolio, and to add technology, clean water and health to round out the portfolio. All these ETFs have a “pass”rating
Here is the link to the Decision Page: http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. Currently, international stocks and sectors (technology and semi-conductors) are leading the pack.
Currently, 31 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, the highest number in weeks.
Conclusion — Market Remains in Uptrend
The stock market is has broken out to new highs and continues to advance no matter what the financial, economic or political news headlines announce. The summer months are typically slow and the market tends to decline, especially in August and September. Be patient and keep the emotion out of the investment equation. Keep your stop LIMITs in place and ride the market as far as it goes. Make sure to check eftscreen.com for any ETF in the portfolio that exceeds its stop LIMIT or falls below rank 20 in the table. Ride the portfolio until the next BDH sell signal occurs.
Have an enjoyable summer week ahead and try to stay cool.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active, so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.