Blog

Mar 25

Market Review

This past week the stock market fell for the second time in three weeks.  The BDH Dashboard has remained on its  NEUTRAL rating.  Moreover, three ETFs in our portfolio were sold since March 15, leaving only SMH and VGT in the portfolio with 60% cash.  No new purchases were made as there was no new BUY signal and 19 out the Top 20 ETFs in our universe have a ‘fail’ rating.

For the week, the DJIA lost 1.52%, the S&P 500 declined 1.44%, and the NASDAQ Composite dropped only 1.22%. For the 2017 year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 4.22%, compared to 4.70% for the S&P 500, and 8.28% for the NASDAQ which is still the current leader among these three indexes year-to-date. The BDH strategy advanced 3.43% for the year lagging the three major averages. All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas, but there is significant deterioration in the number of advancing stocks in the underlying market.

The number of new 52-week NYSE highs (218) was up marginally from 166 three weeks ago.  This is a big drop from the 450 to 600 new  52-week highs in February.  Normally, at or near bull market highs there are well over 700 new highs. This small number of new highs indicates that only a small number of stocks are keeping the major averages higher, while many stocks are lagging the market.

Moreover, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas has plummeted to 46.92% from 83% on January 6, and this number has been declining since March 1.  Also, the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma has declined to 66.54% after hoovering around 75% five weeks.    Thus, overall the market is sinking while the major averages show only minor deterioration.

Not surprisingly, bond and gold prices advanced as did utilities (XLU).  Oil stocksfell gain, but gold and gold miners held their own.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review – No Changes

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on March 2 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest March 22, 2017 Bullish Percentage reading was 35.3% dup 4.1 percentage points from two weeks ago.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a SELL signal on March 7, 2017, as the MACD turned negative confirming the 5-dma crossover of the Index on February 27,  (Refer to second chart). Both of the components of this indicator appear to be bottoming, but there has been no upward change yet.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Remains on NEUTRAL Signal

As of March 7 the BDH strategy is in a “2” NEUTRAL signal as remains in that position.

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results March 24, 2017

I have a software problem including the full Excel spreadsheet of the Dashboard, so I’m using WORD instead.  If you need the complete worksheet since 2010 go to the January 2, 2017 blog and click on it there.  Sorry for the inconvenience.

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 3.43%.    It is in 11th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.   See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   40% Invested

Since the 10/26/2017 BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 9.00% compared to a gain of 11.45% for the three major averages.  Our portfolio has lost ground to the averages in the past few months with the execution of 5% trailing stops.  Check out the upated spreadsheet:

Top 5 ETF March 24, 2017

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.

Currently,  only 7 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which indicates that the short-term underlying market trend is down.

Conclusion  —  Market  Weakens Over Past Three Weeks

The stock market has weakened internally as most stocks have had a negative daily MACD crossover.  This may be the beginning of a correction.  However, the market may hold its own before moving to new highs or deteriorate going forward.  No one knows which way it will go. I am using a 5% trailing stop to protect capital.  You should use your own defensive approach.  Don’t give up too much of your profits if the market continues to decline.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Mar 18

This will be a shortened blog.  Last weekend’s was the standard one.

Market Comments

The markets moved up less than 1% for the week.  A slight improvement in market internals occurred as the number of new 52-week NYSE highs jumped to 305 from 162 the prior week. Also the number of ETFs in our universe with “pass” ratings increase to 9 from 3 the prior week.  IYT was sold on March 15, 2017, as it hit its 5% trailing stop at $164.24.  The BDH portfolio is now 80% invested.

Have a good week and be careful.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Mar 12

Market Review

This past week the stock market fell for the first time in six weeks. Normally, this is not a problem in a roaring bull market, HOWEVER, the BDH Dashboard encountered two indicator sell signals as indicator #5 and #8 turned negative.  Therefore, the BDH strategy is in a NEUTRAL rating.  Moreover, 49 out of 52 ETFs in our universe experienced MACD sell signals with a “fail” rating.

COMP March 10, 2017For the week, the DJIA lost 0.49%, the S&P 500 declined 0.44%, and the NASDAQ Composite dropped only 0.15%. For the 2017 year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 5.77%, compared to 5.97% for the S&P 500, and 8.89% for the NASDAQ and is still the current leader among these three indexes year-to-date. The BDH strategy advanced 4.48% for the year, and is currently 100% invested. All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas, but there is significant deterioration in the number of advancing stocks in the underlying market.

For example, for the first time in many months, the number of new 52-week NYSE highs ( 162) was less than the number of new lows totalling 169.  Also, this is a big drop from the 449 to 600 new  52-week highs in past weeks.  Normally, at or near bull market highs there are well over 700 new highs. This small number of new highs indicates that only a small number of stocks are keeping the major averages higher while many stocks are lagging the market.

Moreover, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas has plummeted to 49.54% from 83% on January 6, and this number has been declining since March 1.  Also, the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma has stayed declined to 65.45% after hoovering around 75% for weeks.    Thus, overall the market is sinking while the major averages do not show the overall deterioration.

Surprisingly, bond and gold prices plummeted as did utilities (XLU).  Oil stocks got crushed, but gold miners held their own.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review – Two Changes NASI March 10, 2017

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on March 2 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest March 8, 2017 Bullish Percentage reading was 30.0% down 37.9% two weeks ago.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a SELL signal on March 7, 2017, as the MACD turned negative confirming the 5-dma crossover of the Index on February 27,  (Refer to second chart).

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on NEUTRAL Signal

As of March 7 the BDH strategy is in a “2” NEUTRAL signal.

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results March 10, 2017

I have a software problem including the full Excel spreadsheet of the Dashboard, so I’m using WORD instead.  If you need the complete worksheet since 2010 go to the January 2, 2017 blog and click on it there.  Sorry for the inconvenience.

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 4.48%.    It is in 10th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.   It was up from 12th place from a few weeks ago. See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 10.13% compared to a gain of 12.67% for the three major averages.  Our portfolio has lost ground to the averages in the past few weeks with the below average performance of SMH since its purchase.  Note that all five ETF due to a negative MACD crossover. Check out the spreadsheet:

Top 5 ETF March 10, 2017

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.

Currently,  only 3 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which indicates that the short-term underlying market trend is down

Conclusion  —  Market  Weakens Over Past Two Weeks

The stock market has weakened internally as most stocks have had a negative daily MACD crossover.  This may be the beginning of a correction. I am using a 5% trailing stop to protect capital.  You should use your own defensive approach.  Don’t give up too much of your profits if the market continues to decline.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Mar 05

This will be a very short blog.

 

The stock market had a big day after Trump’s speech, but the rest of the week was most uneventful.  The averages were up less than 1% for the week.  There are no changes to report.

Have a good week ahead!

Feb 25

Market ReviewCOMP Feb 24, 2017

This past week the stock market powered ahead again, but with more subdued gains, and the NASDAQ Composite was the weakest performer.

For the week, the DJIA gained 0.96%, the S&P 500 rose 0.69%, and the NASDAQ Composite was up only 0.12%. For the 2017 year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 5.36%, compared to 5.74% for the S&P 500, and 8.59% for the NASDAQ and is still the current leader among these three indexes year-to-date. The BDH strategy advanced 4.37% for the year, and is currently 100% invested. All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.

There were  449 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 505 the prior week showing a slight deterioration with a rising market.  Normally at bull market highs there are well over 700 new highs. The lack of more new highs shows that many stocks are not participating in the gains.

Interestingly, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas is at 69.91% compared to 83% on January 6, and this number has been declining for a few weeks.  However, the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma has stayed steady at 75.69%.    So, overall the market is holding on to its gains, although internally there are many under performing stocks.

Interestingly, bond and gold prices surged higher, and utilities (XLU) were the best performing group for the week up over 3.5%.  Oil and gold miners moved lower.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review – No Changes This Past Week NASI Feb 11 2017

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on January 25 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 22, 2017 Bullish Percentage reading was 38.5% up from 33.1% two weeks ago.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a BUY signal on February 15, 2017, as was reported in last weekend’s shortened blog post.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Remains on “4”BUY Signal

The last BDH BUY signal was generated on January 25, 2017 as Indicator #5 had a positive MACD crossover.

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results Feb 24, 2017

I have a software problem including the full Excel spreadsheet of the Dashboard, so I’m using WORD instead.  If you need the complete worksheet since 2010 go to the January 2, 2017 blog and click on it there.  Sorry for the inconvenience.

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 2.73%.    It is in 12th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 9.94% compared to a gain of 12.33% for the three major averages.  Our portfolio has lost ground to the averages in the past few weeks with the poor performance of SMH since its purchase.  Note that both SMH and IYT have “fail” ratings due to a negative MACD crossover. Check out the spreadsheet:

Top 5 ETF February 24, 2017

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance  XLF, IYT, XLE and XLI in the Sectors, and BRF and EWC in the International sector.

Currently, 28 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which indicates not all ETF categories are participating in the rally to new highs

Conclusion  —  Market  Keeps Rising

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  Enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal. This bull market run since March 9, 2009 has now made it the longest bull market in history measured by weeks at 411 weeks, based on the S&P 500 Index.  So don’t be surprised if it runs out of steam soon to begin a decline. I am using a 5% trailing stop to protect capital.  You should use your own defensive approach.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Feb 19

This will be an abbreviated blog post, as is the case every other week.  Refer to last weekend’s blog for all the links to the data.

Market Summary COMP Feb 17, 2017

The stock market keeps chugging ahead just like the Energizer bunny.  For the week, the NASDAQ Composite led the way up 1.82%, followed by the DJIA advancing 1.75%, and the S&P 500 up 1.51%  On Wednesday, Indicator #8 issued a BUY signal as the MACD finally had a positive crossover (see second chart below).  This resulted in a BDH maximun “4” BUY signal.

For the Y-T-D, the NASDAQ is the clear leader up 8.46%, followed by the S&P 500 up 5.02%, and the DJIA up 4.36%.  The BDH strategy is up 4.58% and is current;y 100% invested in five ETFs.  Oil, gold, ad bonds ended the week mostly unchanged after some volatility during the week.

Overall, the stock market is continuing its terrific run with no major signs of a downtrend.  Even the number of new NYSE 52-week highs kicked up to 504 from 379 the prior week.  So enjoy the ride as long as it lasts and make sure your stops are in place in case of a reversal.

Have a great President’s Day weekend! NASI Feb 17, 2017

Feb 12

Market Review COMP Feb 11 2017

This past week the stock market powered ahead with strong gains on Thursday and Friday.

For the week, the DJIA gained 0.99%, the S&P 500 rose 0.81%, and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.19% and is still the current leader among these three indexes. For the 2017 year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 2.56%, compared to 3.45% for the S&P 500, and 6.52% for the NASDAQ.  The BDH strategy advanced 2.73% for the year, and is currently 100% invested. All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.

There were only 379 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 331 the prior week which is low for a market making new highs.  Normally at bull market highs there are over 600 to 700 new highs. The  number of new lows continues to shrink currently at 44 compared to 57 for the prior week.  The lack of more new highs shows that many stocks are not participating in the gains.

Interestingly, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas is at 74.17% compared to 83% on January 6.  However, the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma has moved higher  to 75.47% compared to a range  of 70.27% from 65.24% over the past month.    So, overall the market is holding on to its gains, although internally there are many under performing stocks.

Not surprisingly, bond and gold prices were slightly lower.  Oil moved up slightly.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review – No Changes This Week NASI Feb 11 2017

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on January 25 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 8, 2017 Bullish Percentage reading was 35.8% up from 32.8% two weeks ago.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a SELL signal on December 23, 2016, as the MACD had a negative crossover, and the Index fell below the 5-day EMA as well. However, this past week the Index moved above the 5 day-ema (refer to green box on right side of chart).  However, MACD still needs a positive crossover to generate a a BUY signal on this indicator .  This condition is imminent as the chart indicates. 

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Remains on “3”BUY Signal

The last BDH BUY signal was generated on January 25, 2017 as Indicator #5 had a positive MACD crossover.

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results Feb 10 2017

I have a software problem including the full Excel spreadsheet of the Dashboard, so I’m using WORD instead.  If you need the complete worksheet since 2010 go to the January 2, 2017 blog and click on it there.  Sorry for the inconvenience

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 2.73%.    It is in 12th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 9.13% compared to a gain of 9.81% for the three major averages.  Our portfolio is only 0.68% away from matching the markets performance.  This is a good showing as we have taken a number of stop losses along the way to limit our market exposure.

Note that now all five ETFs have a “pass” rating.

Check out the spreadsheet:

Top 5 ETF February10, 2017

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance  SMH XLF, IYT, XLE and XLI in the Sectors, and BRF and EWC in the International sector.

Currently, 28 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which indicates not all ETF categories are participating in the rally to new highs

Conclusion  —  Market  Keeps Rising

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  Enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal. This bull market run since March 9, 2009 has now made it the longest bull market in history measured by weeks at 409 weeks, based on the S&P 500 Index.  So don’t be surprised if it runs out of steam soon to begin a decline. I am using a 5% trailing stop to protect capital.  You should use your own defensive approach

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Feb 05

This will be a very short review.

The stock market opened the week lower, but gained back its losses by Friday with the three major averages moving about 0.11%.  There are no changes in the ETF portfolio or in the indicators.  We’ll see what next week brings.

Enjoy the game tonight!

Jan 29

Market Review COMP Jan 27 2017

This past week the stock market finally made the move to all-time highs with all three major averages hitting highs on Wednesday.    For the week, the DJIA gained 1.34%, the S&P 500 rose 1.03%, and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.90% and is the current leader among these three indexes. For the 2017 year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 1.68%, compared to 2.50% for the S&P 500, and 5.16% for the NASDAQ.  The BDH strategy advanced only 2.18% for the year, as it is currently 80% invested. All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.

There were  498 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 213 the prior week which shows a nice improvement.  The  number of new lows continues to shrink currently at 41 compared to 42 for the prior week.

Interestingly, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas declined to 74.49% from 83% on January 6.  However, the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma has remained stable at 70.74% compared to a range  of 70.27% from 65.24% over the past three weeks ago.    So, overall the market is holding on to its gains showing signs of strengthening internally.

Bond and gold prices were down.  Oil moved up slightly.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Change This Week NASI Jan 27 2017

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on January 25 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest January 25, 2017 Bullish Percentage reading was 31.6% down from 43.6% three weeks ago.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a SELL signal on December 23, 2016, as the MACD had a negative crossover, and the Index fell below the 5-day EMA as well.  Refer to second chart with the two circled areas.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “3”BUY Signal

A new BDH BUY signal was generated on January 25, 2017 as Indicator #5 had a positive MACD crossover.

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results Jan 27 2017

I have a software problem including the Excel spreadsheet of the Dashboard so I’m using the WORD approach.  If you need the complete worksheet since 2010 go to the January 2, 2017 blog and click on it there.  Sorry for the inconvenience

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 2.18%.    It is in 12th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   80% Invested, but going to 100% on Monday

The portfolio is 80% invested. Because of the new BUY signal we will purchase SMH at the open on Monday to have a 100% invested position.

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 6.48% compared to a gain of 8.69% for the three major averages.  Hopefully our portfolio will outpace the averages in the weeks ahead.

Note that two out of our four ETFs had a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover weeks ago.

Check out the spreadsheet:

Top 5 ETF January 27, 2017

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance XOP and UGA in the Commodities sector, SMH XLF, IYT, XLE and XLI in the Sectors, and BRF and EWC in the International sector

Currently, 23 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which indicates not all ETF categories are participating in the rally to new highs

Conclusion  —  Market  Bounces Higher

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  Enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal. This bull market run since March 9, 2009 has now made it the longest bull market in history measured by weeks at 407 weeks based on the S&P 500 Index.  So don’t be surprised if it runs out of steam soon to begin a decline. I am using a 5% trailing stop to protect capital.  You should use your own defensive approach

 

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Jan 22

This will be a shortened blog.

Market SituationCOMP January 20 2017

The stock market hardly moved this week awaiting the next President.  By the close on Friday, the DJIA was down 0.29% for the week followed by a decline of 0.34% for the NASDAQ Composite, and a decline of 0.15% for the S&P 500.  For the YTD, the DJIA is up 0,33%, the NASDAQ is up 3.20% and the S&P 500 is up 1.45%.  This compares to a rise of 0.73% for the BDH strategy.

On Friday, Indicator #5 experienced a negative MACD crossover resulting in a SELL signal on that indicator.  This caused the Dashboard to revert to a “2” NEUTRAL signal.    The number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE continued to deteriorate to 213 from 295 the prior week.

Looking at the chart to the right, you can see the NASDAQ’s MACD negative crossover and the eight day trading range marked by the horizontal lavender box.  We’ll wait to see which way it breaks to determine the next short term trend.  If it does hold the upper support line, then we could test the lows around December 29 at 5371.89.  Right now the NASDAQ is at 5555.13, and easy number to remember.

Here is the latest Dashboard in a WORD document, as I still have a problem importing EXCEL into this blog.:

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Results for January 20, 2017

Have a good week.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.