Blog

Aug 30

Market Review CIMP August 28 2015

The market started the week with a mini-crash on Monday (my birthday) as the DJIA fell about 1090 points in the first minute or two, but was able to pare the losses to 588 points by the market’s close.  In comparison in the prior week ending August 21 the DJIA fell 1018.  Thus, Monday was one of the worst days in the market’s history in terms of point losses, not percentages.  On Tuesday the DJIA and the other major averages tried to stabilize, but turned around to the downside closing 205 points lower.  Then the market staged a huge recovery the remainder of the week closing with gains for the week!

Unbelievably, for the week the major averages managed a gain of about 0.91% for the S&P 500, 1.11% for the DJIA and a solid 2.60% for the NASDAQ Composite.  The latter index is 202 points away from its 100-dma (see first chart) at 5030.27, however the MACD started to turn up at week’s end.  A big rally next week could potentially result in a Dashboard BUY signal based on positve action on Indicators #2 and #5.  Most likely, the market will take time to digest this past week’s volatility before hopefully rebounding higher.

All three major averages are still well below their respective 50-, 100- and 200-dmas which is not a good sign.  The market experienced huge damage last week and it will take time to recover.  The market’s volatile and scary action on Monday may be the low point of this correction (defined as a decline of 10% or more) and considered a “capitulation” point.  The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) sky rocketed to over 52.5 on Monday, a level not seen since 48 was hit in August 2011.

The number of new NYSE 52-week lows vaulted to 1456 with only 18 new highs.  The last time the number of new lows was in this vicinity was the week ending August 12. 2011 with 1510 new lows, and then again on October 7, 2011 with 1296.  At the market bottom in the week ending March 6, 2009 there were 1185 new lows. In both 2009 and 2011 the market then began a march higher as these turned out to be significant turning points with excesses wrung out of the market. So looking at history, it is possible that this week marks the bottom of this correction.  We will have to wait and see.

Also, note that only 17.747% of all NYSE stocks are above their respective 50-dmas, and only 24.26% are above their 200-dmas at week’s end.  On Tuesday of this past week, the respective numbers were 8% and 16%, so the market moved sharply lower but then was able to rebound a bit.  Even so these numbers are very low and a move higher from here would not be unexpected.

Bond prices initially rose dramatically on Monday equalling the highs in May, but then took a big hit down by week’s end.  Oil (USO) rallied 12.47% for the week, one of its biggest moves ever in one day, after hitting a new low the prior week. Gold (GLD) prices and gold miners (GDX) rallied on Monday but then fell into mid-week before recovering a bit on Thursday and Friday.

In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –No Changes NASI August 28 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its SELL signal of August 19.(Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD SELL signal on July 28 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 26 Bullish Percentage reading was 32.5% up from the prior week’s reading of 26.8%.  Investors are now more bullish on the market projecting out six months. This indicator is still on a May 27 BUY signal. 

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a SELL signal on July 28, as the MACD had a negative crossover. 

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Reamins on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-August 28, 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 9th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site with a year-to-date loss of 3.14%. So far the DJIA is down 6.62% for the year, followed by the S&P 500 deon 3.40%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 1.95%.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Cash

The portfolio is 100% invested in cash awaiting the next BUY signal.

The ETFscreen table containing 52 ETFs had only 4 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week with three of the four being inverse funds, and one Euro-currency ETF.  This is not surprising based on the rapidity and size of the market decline.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of the fixed income.

Conclusion  — Market In Correction Mode With Possible Bottom Made

The market’s huge moves this past week with extreme volatility, and many stocks falling 20% or more intra-day on Monday, is bound to calm down going forward, unless there is major unsettling news in the overseas markets.  The upcoming Fed meeting in mid-September will be a one-day event and probably have little impact on the market going forward.

Stay comfortably is cash as the market tries to work its way higher after a tumultous week.  The BDH strategy will signal the next buying opportunity when it develops.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. it is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Aug 23

This will be a shortened blog as is the case every other week.

Market Review

COMP August 21 2015The correction everyone has been expecting for months finally arrived this week with a vengeance.  The fast precipitous drop knocked off 1,018 points from the DJIA or 5.82%, 121 points or or 5.77% for the S&P 500, and a whopping 342 points from the NASDAQ Composite or 6.78%.  According to Barron’s  (August 24, 2015 issue page M3): “Both major indexes had their biggest point decline since October 2008″.  Moreover, it was the largest percent decline in a week in four years.  Therefore, it was not surprising that the BDH Dashboard issued a SELL signal at the close on Wednesday as Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index fell decisively below its 100-dma resulting in a “1′ SELL signal on the Dashboard.

Dashboard-V2-August 21, 2015_WC-1

Fortunately, the 3% trailing stops took the Top 5 ETFs out of the market on 7/24, 7/27, and 8/6 thus avoiding the latest devastation.  Refer to last week’s Top 5 link to see the information.

Year-to-date the BDH Strategy is down 3.14% compared to a decline of 7.65% for the DJIA, 4.27% for the S&P 500 and -0.63% for the NASDAQ Composite.  So our strategy has done better compared to two of the three major indexes.

This past week the number of new NYSE new 52-week lows hit 697, which is over 300 more than the prior week.  Many stocks are down over 20% this year so the market overall has not done well even when it was going up.  The best performing sector last week was the utilities which declined only 1.39%.

Top 5 ETFs

Take a look at the etfscreen.com/buydonthold decision page and you’ll notice that 9 out the top 10 ETFs has a pass rating.  The first three were inverse ETFs –DOG,SH, and PSQ, the others were fixed inccome –IEF,AGG,TLT, and one was homebuilders (XHB) and Utilities (XLU).

Conclusion

Remain safely in cash until the market stabilizes and starts an uptrend and a BUY signal occurs on the Dashboard.  This could occur beginning on Monday or may take until October when the market typically begins its normal year-end rally.  No one knows where the market is going from here. By using the BDH strategy one can patiently wait for the next BUY signal.  As I mentioned in my book, the BDH strategy provides a great defensive approach in corrections and Bear markets.  That is what it is doing now!

Have a great summer weekend before Labor Day!!

 

Aug 15

Market Review COMP August 14 2015

The market started the week with a nice rally, but ended the week with only a mild gain after a big decline on Wednesday.  For the week the major averages managed a gain of about 0.7% for the S&P 500 and DJIA and only 0.09% for the NASDAQ Composite.  XLY was sold on August 6th based on a 3% trailing stop leaving the BDH strategy in a 100% cash position. Thus, the market  is still in a trading range below the recent highs.  Indicator # 6 had a confirming BUY signal as the AAII Bullish Percentage rose above 25% after dropping below it two weeks ago.

The NASDAQ was meandering around its 100-dma and actually closed slightly below it on Thursday, but closed about nine points above it on Friday (refer to first chart). If the market remains in a trading range these back-and-forth moving average crossovers may continue for a while.

The market has not been doing much lately, as the S&P 500 is up a meager 1.59% for the year, followed by the DJIA actually down 1.94%.   Only the NASDAQ has done well up 6. 59% based on the performance of a handful of high tech and biotech high flyers. The BDH strategy in comparison is down 3.14% for the year, due mostly to tight trailing stops which knocked us out of the market just before the market started to rebound in a number of instances.  In a trading range market the BDH strategy will have a tough time making progress, and will under perform, as it takes time to get back into the market with a Dashboard BUY signal from a previous Dashboard SELL signal.

Interestingly, the market internals have worsened with only 164 new 52-week highs on the NYSE compared to 379 new lows.   Note that only 37.27% of all NYSE stocks are above their respective 50-dmas, and only 41.02% are above their 200-dmas at week’s end.  These are not good numbers for a market near its highs.  This indicates the current stock market rally is being driven by a small number of stocks with excellent performance year-to-date.  Normally, the market will eventually give in and decline more, but so far that has not happened.

Bond prices rose slightly after a volatile week. Gold (GLD) prices and gold miners (GDX) ralled early in the week then gave back some of the big gains on Thursday and Friday.   Crude oil (USO) closed near at yearly lows again.   In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –No Changes NASI August 14 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its BUY signal of July 13.(Refer to first chart).  Watch the fluctuation around the 100-dma for a decisive SELL signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD SELL signal on July 28 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 12 Bullish Percentage reading was 30.5% up significantly  from the prior week’s reading of 24.3%.  Investors are now much more bullish on the market projecting out six months. This indicator is still on a May 27 BUY signal, as well as its latest (this week’s) confirming BUY signal.  A move about 25% was the third confirming BUY signal.  Remember this a contrary indicator. Low bullish extreme readings followed by a reading above 25$ normally indicate a buying opportunity ahead.  BUT remember that all the four BDH indicators need to be reviewed for a “3” BUY signal before any action is taken.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a SELL signal on July 28, as the MACD had a negative crossover.  Note on the second chart the two green circles in the lower part of each chart showing a potential slowing of the decline and a possible upturn coming.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-August 14 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 15th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site with a year-to-date loss of 3.14%. The BDH strategy is slightly under performing the market so far this year.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Cash

The portfolio is 100% invested in cash. Since the last BUY signal on July 15th,  the BDH strategy is down 1.31% vs. a loss of 1.75% for the three major averages. Below is the link to  the this performance information:

Top-5-ETF-Tracking-August 14-2015

The ETFscreen table containing 52 ETFs had only 7 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week which is a poor showing for a market that is near its highs for the year.  This indicates the market’s mixed performance where only selective stocks in specific sectors are participating in this market upswing. This is a market showing internal weakness, but experiencing a bounce up last week.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of the fixed income.

Conclusion  — Market Stalls Out

The market internals are still weak and the average stock is not participating in this rally, but the market has managed to maintain its equilibrium even with all the negative news from China and elsewhere.

Stay comfortably is cash as the market tries to break out to new highs or declines further from here.  Either way the BDH strategy will place you on the right side of the market after a clear trend develops.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.  You are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes.  So to make sure you are following the signals please be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. And decide on and place your stops that meet your risk profile.

Aug 09

This week’s blog is a shortened version, as is the case every other week.  See last weekend’s blog for the full version.

Market Review

COMp August 7 2015The stock market drifted lower this past week with each of the three major averages falling about 1.50%.  Currently, XLY is the only ETF still remaining in the Top 5 portfolio with a 80% resting in cash. Only six ETFs in the Top 5 ETF table of 52 ETFs have a “pass” rating which indicates a market in a decline.

The number of NYSE 52 week highs totalled a weak 215 compared to 555 new highs.

The NASDAQ Composite (see upper chart) touched and bounced off its 100-dma (blue circle on right side of chart) and the MACD trigger line is still heading lower.  The average also touched its lower blue support line.

The BDH strategy remains cautious and a BUY signal is not imminent unless the market somehow manages to explode upward from here.  The probability of that is not high as we are in the seasonally weak month of August with another weak coming up in September.

NASI August 7 2015Therefore, be patient and wait for the next buying opportunity.

Have a good week ahead!

Aug 02

Market Review COMP July 31 2015

The market’s sharp intra-day decline on Monday resulted in the sale of two of the Top 5 ETFs, after two others were sold the prior Friday (July 24), all sold at their 3% stops.  Therefore, only XLY remains in the portfolio.  The market rebounded nicely the remainder of this past week, but is still in a trading range below the recent highs.  Also, on Tuesday, both Indicators #5 and #8 had MACD SELL signals resulting in the Dashboard retreating to a “2” NEUTRAL reading.

The NASDAQ is well above its 100-dma (Indicator #2) and continues to be the leading index in performance for the year to date at 8.28%, mostly attributable to a handful of technology high fliers and biotech giants.  The rest of the market is not doing much, as the S&P 500 is up a meager 2.18% for the year, followed by the DJIA actually down 0.75%. The BDH strategy in comparison is down 2.63% for the year, due mostly to tight trailing stops which knocked us out of the market just before the market started to rebound.  In a trading range market the BDH strategy will have a tough time making progress, and will under perform, as it takes time to get back in the market with a Dashboard BUY signal from a previous Dashboard SELL signal.

Interestingly, the market internals have worsened with only 182 new 52-week highs on the NYSE compared to 600 new lows.   Note that only 38.88% of all NYSE stocks are above their respective 50-dmas, and only 43.03% are above their 200-dmas at week’s end.  These are not good numbers for a market near its highs.  This indicates the current stock market rally is being driven by a small number of stocks with excellent performance year-to-date.  Normally, the market will eventually give in and decline, but so far that has not happened.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite advanced 0.78%, while the S&P 500 moved 1.16% higher, and the DJIA advanced 0.69%.

Bond prices rallied. Gold (GLD) prices and gold miners (GDX) did not do much overall.   Crude oil (USO) closed near its yearly lows.   In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –Two Changes NASI July 30 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its new BUY signal of July 13.(Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD SELL signal on July 28 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 29 Bullish Percentage reading was 21.1% down significantly  from the prior week’s reading of 32.5%.  Investors are now a much less bullish on the market projecting out six months. This indicator is still on a May 27 BUY signal, as well as its two recent confirming BUY signals as well.  A move about 25% would result in a third confirming BUY signal.  Remember this a contrary indicator. Low bullish extreme readings normally indicate a buying opportunity ahead.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a SELL signal on July 28, as the MACD had a negative crossover (see red arrow on bottom frame on second chart). 

Here is a chart showing all D   ashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-July 31 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 16th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site with a year-to-date loss of 2.63%. The BDH strategy is slightly under performing the market so far this year.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 20% invested. Since the last BUY signal on July 15th,  the BDH strategy is down 0.80% vs. a loss of 0.64 for the three major averages. Below is the link to  the current portfolio:

Top-5-ETF-Tracking-July 31-2015

The ETFscreen table containing 52 ETFs had only 11 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week which is a poor showing for a market that is near its highs for the year.  This indicates the market’s mixed performance where only selective stocks in specific sectors are participating in this market upswing. This is a market showing internal weakness, but experiencing a bounce up last week.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of the fixed income.

Conclusion  — Market Moves Highers After Monday Sell-Off

The market internals are still weak and the average stock is not participating in this rally, but the market has rebounded nicely from its lows of July 7.   The BDH strategy is now only 20% fully invested which will further erode its performance going forward if the market continues to move higher from here.  Only a BDH BUY signal will allow the strategy to get back in tune with the short-term market trend, if it continues higher.

Be careful here as this is treacherous territory as the market tries to take out its previous highs — especially the S&P 500 which is having a very hard time breaking out above its resistance of 2130 which has been hit three times without a breakthrough (Use the symbol $spx in the first chart to see this). 

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.  You are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes.  So to make sure you are following the signals please be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals.

Jul 25

Comp July 23 2015This will be an abbreviated blog post as in the norm every other week.

Market Review

The stock market took a hit this week.  In particular the NASDAQ Composite advanced to an all-time high intra-day on Monday (5231.94), but then headed down closing at 5088.63 on Friday, down 2.7% from its high point.  It now has breached two prior levels of support (two top horizontal blue lines on first chart) that have turned into resistance levels.  And it is only 1.4% from its critical 100-dma (refer to first chart).  If that level is breached on a closing basis any day next week, then the Dashboard will be at “2” NEUTRAL.

Indicator #8 had a wild week with first a BUY signal on July 21 and then a SELL signal on July 24 (refer to second chart).  There were 245 NYSE 52-week highs and 626 lows, not a good sign going forward.  For the week, all the major averages were down more than 2.2%.

NASI July 23 2015XLV in our Top 5 ETFs was sold on Friday at $75.08 after hitting its 3% trailing stop.  No new positions are being added at this time.

The latest Dashboard readings are at the following URL:

Dashboard-V2-July 23 2015_WC-1

Be very careful as the market could be on its way to its long awaited 10% correction.  Keep stops tight to protect principal in according with your personal risk tolerance.  Only 6 ETFs have a pass rating on ETFscreen, not a very good showing.
Stay cool!

Jul 18

Market Review COmp July 17 2015

The stock market’s strong start to this past week with two solid days resulted in the NASDAQ Composite’s two indicators (#2 and #5) giving BUY signals on July 13 and 14th respectively.  Not only was the 100-dma taken out easily, but the MACD crossover also occurred, all within a day of each other (refer to chart on the right).

Even Indicator #8 had the Index crossover it’s 5-day ema on July 14th.  However, we still need a MACD upward crossover on this indicator for confirmation.  When that occurs the Dashboard will be on a maximum “4” BUY signal (refer to second chart below).

Accordingly, this past Wednesday morning the  following Top 5 ETFs with a pass rating were purchased at the open: IBB (2), XLY (3), XLV (5), QQQ(7), and PDP (9) as reported in my interim blog post on July 14th.

The stock market continued to advance the remainder of the week, with the NASDAQ closing at an all-time high of 5210.14 up an astonishing 4.25% for the week and 300 points or 6.3% from its intra-day lows eight trading days ago.  Moreover, the S&P 500 advanced 2.41% for the week, followed by the DJIA gaining 1.84%.  The easing in the Greek situation helped the market recover from prior week weakness.

Interestingly, the market internals finally improved with 266 new 52-week highs on the NYSE compared to 115  a few weeks ago, while the number of new lows fell from 514 a few weeks ago to 281 last week.  Even with the markets surge these numbers are not encouraging.  Note that only 41.79% of all NYSE stocks were above their respective 50-dmas, and only 48% were above their 200-dmas.  These were big improvements from when market hit its lows on July 7.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ is up a solid 10.00% while the S&P 500 is up 0nly 3.29%, and the DJIA is up 1.48%.  The BDH strategy in comparison is down 0.99%.  The real leadership in this market has been the high tech companies, and healthcare including biotech.

Bond prices rallied. Gold (GLD) prices and gold miners (GDX) got crushed, closing at their lows for the year.   Crude oil (USO) was also lower for the past two weeks.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –Two Changes NASI July 17 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its new BUY signal of July 13.(Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD BUY signal on July 14 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 15 Bullish Percentage reading was 30.8% up  from the prior week’s reading of 27.9%.  Investors are now a bit less bullish on the market projecting out six months. This indicator is still on a May 27 BUY signal.  and its two recent confirming BUY signals as well,

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a positive Index crossover on July 14 (5-day EMA green arrow on top in second chart).  The MACD is nearing a positive crossover but is not yet there.

Here is a chart showing all D   ashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Remains on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-July 17 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 14th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site with a year-to-date loss of 0.99%. The BDH strategy is slightly under performing the market so far this year. Since the last BUY signal this past week, BDH is up 0.84% vs. 0.98 for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested.  Below is the link to  the current portfolio:

Top-5-ETF-Tracking-July 17-2015

The ETFscreen table containing 52 ETFs had only 18 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week which is a fair showing for a market that is near its highs for the year.  This indicates the market’s mixed performance where only selective stocks in specific sectors are participating in this market upswing. This is a market showing internal weakness, but experiencing a bounce up last week.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of the fixed income.

Conclusion  — Market Moves Higher

The market internals are still weak and the average stock is not participating in this rally.  Nevertheless, the market has rebounded quickly from its lows of July 7. International financial events will most likely impact the market going forward, as will US economic, financial, and earnings announcements.  The BDH strategy is now fully invested which is a testament to the focus of the strategy which is to change direction as the market turns, whether the turn is up or down. Be careful here as this is treacherous territory.  Make sure stop limit orders are used to protect any profits.  The  BDH portfolio will be using 3% trailing stops to prevent against any big declines that usually occur in the July through early October time period.  Stops are subjective and investors should decide on their own parameters based upon their personal risk tolerance.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.  You are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes.  So to make sure you are following the signals please be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals.

Jul 14

Intra-week update

Market Situation COMP July 14, 2015

The stock market’s strong start to this week with two solid days resulted in the NASDAQ Composite’s two indicators (#2 and #5) giving BUY signals on July 13 and 14th respectively.  Refer to chart on the right.

Even Indicator #8 had the Index crossover it’s 5 day ema today.  However we need a MACD upward crossover for confirmation.  When that occurs the Dashboard will be on a maximum “4” BUY signal.  Refer to second chart.

NAWSI July 14, 2014Accordingly, on Wednesday morning the  Top 5 ETFs with a pass rating will be purchased at the open.  These are IBB (2), XLY (3), XLV (5), QQQ(7), and PDP (9).

A full blog will be provided this coming weekend.  Be careful as the market attempts to reach or exceed its recent yearly highs.

Jul 12

This will be an abbreviated update as is the case every other week.

Market ReviewComp July 10 2015

The situation in Greece had a major influence on the global markets last week.  The DJIA had intra-day moves of over 230 points on four days last week.  All-in-all  the markets closed most unchanged (less than 0.20% in wither direction) for the week with a Friday rebound.

The Monday rout resulted in a Dashboard SELL signal as indicator#2 fell below its 100-dma and stayed there for the remainder of the week.  Accordingly, our last ETF position, XLY, was sold on Tuesday at the open at $77.13.  Therefore, the BDH strategy is in a 100% cash position awaiting the next BUY signal.  Here is the latest Dashboard readings:

Dashboard-V2-July 10 2015_WC-1

There will be a full report next weekend.  Enjoy the summer!

 

Jul 04

Market Review COMP July 2 2015

The stock market had a rough week with a big down day on Monday due to the possibility of a Greek default and other financial news.  The Greek referendum vote this weekend will impact market volatility and direction next week, but it will not have a major influence overall on the market’s future direction as Greece is a rather small part of the European economy and financial system.

The big drop on Monday resulted in two ETFs (XHB and XLV) being sold at at their trailing 3% stops.  Currently only XLY remains in the portfolio.  Moreover on Monday, Indicators #2 and #5 both had SELL signals resulting in a Dashboard “2” Neutral rating.  On July 1 Indicator #2 was able to rise above its 100-dma and thus issue a BUY signal.  However, that indicator is only 15 points away from this moving average, so a decline of that amount or more would result in a SELL signal again on this indicator.  Indicator #8 had a negative MACD crossover on July 1 comfirming the prior Index’s crossover of its 5-day ema.  So the Dashboard is still on a “2” Neutral reading at week’s end.

The market internals continue to weaken as the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE was only 115 while the number of new lows ballooned to 514 of which about 200 were either preferred issues or fixed income type securities.  So the market is continuing to weaken and fewer stocks are participating in the market’s overall march to new highs.  Also, only 44% of all NYSE stocks were above their respective 200-dmas and only 30% were above their 50-dmas.

Last week the NASDAQ Composite lost 1.40%, followed by the DJIA losing 1.21%, and the S&P 500 losing 1.18%.  For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ is up 5.77% while the S&P 500 is up pnly 0.87%, and the DJIA is down0.52%.  The BDH strategy in comparison is down 1.81%.

The NASDAQ Composite finally breached its 25-day trading range (two upper parallel blue horizontal lines on first chart) on June 18 but now has declined to its prior support line around 5010.  We will see if it can hold that critical line  next week.

Bond prices were volatile and closed lower for the week as interest rates declined. Gold (GLD) prices also declined for the week nearing its yearly lows.  And gold miners (GDX) fell as well.   Crude oil (USO) was also lower for the week.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –Three Changes NASI July 2 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its new BUY signal of July 1.(Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD SELL signal on June 29 (refer to first chart) shown by the red  arrow at the bottom right corner of the chart.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 1 Bullish Percentage reading was 22.6% down significantly from the prior week’s reading of 35.5%.  Investors are now much less bullish on the market projecting out six months. This indicator is still on a May 27 BUY signal.  If it rises above 26% next week, that will be another confirming BUY signal as well,

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a negative  crossover early in the week (5-day EMA red arrow on top in second chart) and then a July 1 MACD negative crossover thus triggering a SELL signal on this indicator on that date on this indicator. 

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Remains on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-July 3 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 16th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site with a year-to-date loss of 1.81%. The BDH strategy is slightly under performing the market so far this year.

Top 5 ETFs –  20% Invested

The portfolio is 80% in cash with XLY as the only holding.  Below is the link to  the current portfolio:

Top-5-ETF-Tracking-July 3-2015

Notice that since the last BUY signal that the BDH portfolio is down 0.57% while the major averages are down 2.35%.  Therefore, the BDH strategy had a better performance during that period so far.

The ETFscreen table containing 52 ETFs had only 4 ETFs with a “pass” rating this week which is a extremely poor showing for a market that is near its highs for the year. Two of these ETFs are inverse ETFs.

This indicates the market’s mixed performance where only selective stocks are participating in this market upswing. This is a market showing internal weakness.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of the fixed income.

Conclusion  — Market Unstable

The market internals are very weak and the average stock is not participating in this rally.  International financial events will most likely impact the market this coming week until there is some kind of solution hammered out.  The BDH position of 20% invested is a testament to the focus of the strategy which is to protect against big losses in falling markets.

Be careful here as this is treacherous territory.