Blog

Jan 14

Market Review Comp January 13, 2017

This past week the stock market hardly moved.  The DJIA never made it to 20000 again.   For the week, the DJIA fell 0.39%, the S&P 500 declined 0.15%, and the NASDAQ Composite was up 0.96% and is the current leader among these three indexes.

For the 2017 year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 0.62%, compared to 1.60% for the S&P 500, and 3.55% for the NASDAQ.  The BDH strategy advanced only 1.18% for the year.

All three major averages are still well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.  There were only 295 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 229 three weeks ago which shows a slight improvement.  The  number of new lows continues to shrink currently at 39 compared to 60 t0 70 range for the past month.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas shot up to 83% on January 6, but settled on Friday at 80.54% which is  much better than the 68.29% three weeks ago. Likewise, the percentage of stocks above  their longer-term 200-dma has risen to 70.27% from 65.24% three weeks ago.    So, overall the market is holding on to most of its gains  showing signs of strengthening internally.

Bond prices were down.  Gold (GLD) and gold miners (GDX) glittered and moved higher.  Oil ETFs were flat week.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Change This Week NASI January 13,2017

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on January 9 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 28, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 43.6% down from 46.2% the prior week.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a SELL signal on December 23, 2016, as the MACD had a negative crossover, and the Index fell below the 5-day EMA as well.  Refer to second chart with the two circled areas.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “3”BUY Signal

Version 2 Dashboard Weekly Report January 13

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 1.18%.    It is in 14th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of November 11, 2016   Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 6.16% compared to a gain of 7.44% for the three major averages.  Hopefully our portfolio will outpace the averages in the weeks ahead.

Note that four out of our five ETFs had a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover three weeks ago. However, most of these ETFs are coming close to a positive MACD crossover.

Check out the spreadsheet:

Top 5 ETF January 13, 2017

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance XOP and UGA in the Commodities sector, SMH XLF, IYT, XLE and XLI in the Sectors, and BRF and EWC in the International sector

Currently, 18 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which is a major negative change from 5  three weeks ago.

Conclusion  —  Market  Rests

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  A number of technical indicators are trying to turn higher.  The daily MACD on many ETFs and stocks are trying to reverse to the up side.   Enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal.  I am using a 5% trailing stop.

In the next few weeks I will provide a more detailed review of how the BDH strategy performed in 2016.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Jan 09

Complete post weekend of January 14.  No changes to portfolio.

Jan 02

Market Review

comp-december-30-2016This past week, the stock market had its first major decline since the election.  Overall it was not severe, and the DJIA never made it to 20000 although it got close on Tuesday intra-day.   For the week, the DJIA fell 0.86%, the S&P 500 declined 1.10%, and the NASDAQ Composite was down 1.46%

For the year-to-date,  the DJIA gained 13.42%, compared to 9.54% for the S&P 500, and 7.50% for the NASDAQ.  The BDH strategy advanced only 3.20% for the year, a disappointing performance.

All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.  There were only 228 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 314 two weeks ago which shows an internal deterioration for the last three weeks.  The  number of new lows has been steady in the 60 t0 70 range for the past month.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas is steady at 68.29%.  The percentage of stocks above  longer-term 200-dma has declined to 65.24% from 68.54% three weeks ago.    So, overall the market is holding on to most of its gains, although showing signs of weakening.

Bond prices rallied nicely this week, but have given up most of the gains for the year.  Likewise Gold (GLD) rallied nicely staying above the January lows.  Oil ETFs moved higher last week.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Change This Week nasi-december-30-2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on December 28 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator), cancelling its December 8 BUY signal.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 28, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 45.6% down from 44.6% the prior week.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a SELL signal on December 23, 2016, as the MACD had a negative crossover, and the Index fell below the 5-day EMA as well.  That signal resulted in a  BDH Dashboard  “3” BUY reading. Refer to second chart with the two circled areas.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

Here is the latest Dashboard:

dashboard-v2-december-30-2016_wc-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The BDH strategy performance has taken a hit over the past few months with trailing stops kicking in and the market’s quick turnaround.   For the year-to-date, BDH is up only 3.20%.    It is in 13th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of November 11.  On December 13, XOP was sold at $42.72 as it hit its 5% trailing stop.  On December 14, XLE was bought in its place at $77.46 since the BDH strategy was on a “4” BUY signal.

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained4.91% compared to a gain of 6.05% for the three major averages.  If our portfolio of ETFs is able to outperform the averages, the gap between the BDH 2017 performance and the three averages should shrink.

Note that all our five ETFs have a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover two weeks ago. This indicates that the market may be turning lower in the coming days or weeks, so stay alert.

Check out the spreadsheet:

top-5-etfr-december-30-2016

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance XOP and UGA in the Commodities sector, SMH XLF, IYT, XLE and XLI in the Sectors, and BRF in the International sector

Currently, only 5 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which is a major negative change from 27 three weeks ago. Repeat :Note that all our five ETFs have a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover in the last thirteen ding days. This indicates that the market may be turning lower in the coming days or weeks, so stay alert.

Conclusion  —  Market  Rests

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  No one predicted it.  However, a number of technical indicators are turning down.  The daily MACD on many ETFs and stocks has already crossed to the downside.  Normally the market rallies into the last week of the year, but instead it fell on the last three days.  We will see if it can move higher on Tuesday and Wednesday, normally positive days historically speaking.  So enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal.  I am using a 5% trailing stop.

In the next few weeks I will provide a more detailed review of how the BDH strategy performed in 2016.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Dec 24

Market Review comp-december-23-2016

Over the past two weeks, the stock market has been consolidating its gains with weekly moves of less than 0.5%.  This is not unexpected in light of the big gains since election day.  For the week, the DJIA and NASDAQ Composite were up around 0.46%, compared to the S&P 500 gained only 0.25%.

For the year-to-date,  the DJIA has gained 14.40%, compared to 10.76% for the S&P 500, and 9.09% for the NASDAQ.  The BDH strategy is up 4.55% for the year.

All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.  There were only 314 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 676 two weeks ago which shows an interernal deterioration.  The  number of new lows has been steady in the 70 range for the past three weeks.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas is steady at 69.35%.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma has declined to 65.93% from 68.54% two weeks ago.    So, overall the market is holding on to most of its gains, although showing signs of weakening.

Bond prices remain near their yearly lows, having giving up all their gains for the year since the July highs.  Likewise Gold (GLD) had a flat week and is trying to stay above the January lows which are close by. Oil ETFs made little progress last week.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Change This Week nasi-december-23-2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on December 8 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest Decemer 21, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 44.6% down from 44.5% the prior week.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a SELL signal on December 14,2016, as the MACD had a slightly negative crossover, and the Index fell below the 5-day EMA as well.  This signal resulted in a  BDH Dashboard  “3” BUY reading. Refer to second chart with the two circled areas. This SELL signal could easily be reversed to a BUY if the NASDAQ powers ahead next week or beyond.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “3” BUY Signal

Here is the latest Dashboard:

dashboard-v2-december-23-2016_wc-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The BDH strategy performance has taken a hit over the past few months with trailing stops kicking in and the market’s quick turnaround.   For the year-to-date, BDH is up only 4.55%.    It is in 13th place  out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of November 11.  On December 13, XOP was sold at $42.72 as it hit its 5% trailing stop.  On December 14, XLE was bought in its place at $77.46 since the BDH strategy was on a “4” BUY signal.

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 6.27% compared to a gain of 8.81% for the three major averages.  If our portfolio of ETFs is able to outperform the averages, the gap between the BDH YTD performance and the three averages should shrink.

Note that all our five ETFs have a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover in the last seven trading days. This indicates that the market may be turning lower in the coming days or weeks, so stay alert.

Check out the spreadsheet:

top-5-etfr-december-16-2016

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance XOP and UGA in the Commodities sector, SMH XLF, IYT, XLE and VGT in the Sectors, and BRF in the International sector

Currently, only 8 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which is a major negative change from 27 two weeks ago. Repeat :Note that all our five ETFs have a “fail” rating caused by a MACD negative crossover in the last seven trading days. This indicates that the market may be turning lower in the coming days or weeks, so stay alert.

Conclusion  —  Market  Rests

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  No one predicted it.  However, a number of technical indicators are starting to turn down.  The daily MACD on many ETFs and stocks has already crossed to the downside.  Normally the market rallies into the last week of the year and the first few days of the New Year.  We’ll see if that is the case this time around. So enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal.  I am using a 5% trailing stop.

Enjoy a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah, and a great New Year!

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Dec 17

This will be a shortened blog.comp-december-16-2016

The stock market took a breather this week with the averages barely moving.  The DJIA was up 0.44% for the week, the S&P 500 was down 0.06%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.13%.

The NASDAQ is in a tight weekly trading range, so we’ll see which way it breaks next week.  We could easily roll over here as the MACD is showing a slight tilt to the downside.  That is same condition on the NASI chart (not shown).

On 12/13 XOP was sold from the Top 5 ETF Portfolio at a 5% trailing stop at $42.72 for a gain of 2.13%, and replaced on the 12/14 open with XLE at $76.51, as the BDH dashboard as on a “4” BUY signal.

Have a safe week!

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Dec 11

Market Review comp-december-9-2016

Since election night, the stock market has had a rapid ascent higher into new high territory almost every day.  The NASDAQ Composite has been the laggard of the three major indexes, over the past few weeks, but finally joined them this week with new all-time highs..

For the week, the NASDAQ moved like a leader as it was up 3.59%, followed by the S&P 500 up 3.08%, and the DJIA up 3.06%. The Russell 2000 Index (small-cap stocks) soared 5.62%,  and is up an amazing 22.2% for the year.  This compares to  13.38% for the DJIA, 10.55% for the S&P 500, 8.73% for the NASDAQ and 6.12% for the BDH strategy.

All major averages are above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.  There were 676 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 462 in the prior week which was a good showing.  The  number of new lows dropped drastically to 69 from 178 the prior week which is to be expected as the market surges higher.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas jumped nicely to 70.99% from 56.71% the prior week.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma rose to 68.54% from 61.13% the prior week.    So, overall the market has a decidedly bullish stance.

Bonds got crushed again for the fourth consecutive week and are now at price levels of January 2016, giving up almost all their gains for the year.    Likewise Gold (GLD) cratered hitting their February lows. Oil ETFs were slightly higher at week’s end.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Change This Week nasi-december-9-2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on December 8 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest Decemer 7, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 43.1% down from 43.8% the prior week.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way. Another confirmation of the long term buy signal occurred earlier this month.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a BUY signal on November 15,2016 as the MACD had a positive crossover.  This signal resulted in a  BDH Dashboard  “4” BUY reading. Refer to second chart.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “4” BUY Signal

Here is the latest Dashboard:

dashboard-v2-decewmber-9-2016_wc-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The BDH strategy performance has taken a hit over the past few months with trailing stops kicking in and the market’s quick turnaround this week.  For the year-to-date, BDH is up 6.12%.    It is in 11th place from 13th place the last few weeks out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of November 11.  On December 1, SMH was sold at $68.24 as it hit its 5% trailing stop.  On December 2, XOP was bought in its place.

Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 7.48% compared to a gain of 8.41% for the three major averages.  If these ETFs continue to outerform the averages the gap between the BDH YTD performance and the three averages should continue to shrink, as it has in the most recent week.   Check out the spreadsheet:

top-5-etfr-december-16-2016

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance XOP in the Commodities sector, SMH XLF, IYT, XLI and VGT in the Sectors, and the International (BRF ).

Currently, 27 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, not a major change from the prior week.

Conclusion  —  Market  Continues Its Vertical Climb 

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  No one predicted it.  However, a number of technical indicators are still overbought.  However, overbought markets can last for a long time, although a pullback is more than overdue.  So enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal.  I am using a 5% trailing stop.

Have a safe week!

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Dec 03

This will be an abbreviated blog posting.

Market Review comp-december-2-2016

For the week, the DJIA was the again the leader gaining 0.10%, followed by declines for the S&P 500 down 0.97%, and the NASDAQ Composite down 2.65%.

All major averages remain above their 100- and 200-dmas, but the NASADAQ fell below the 50-dma this past week.  Also, on Friday Indicator #5 experienced a negative MACD crossoiver resulting in a SELL signal resulting in a “3” BUY signal overall.  As you can see on the accompanying chart the NASDAQ had a rough week and is now only about 25 points away from crossing the 100-dma to the downside (lower red circle area).

There were 462 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 451 in the prior week which was a good showing.  However, the  number of new lows increased to 178 from 69 from the prior week which is not a good sign in a market near its top. However, the vast majority of these new lows were fixed income related issues which have gotten pounded since the election.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas declined to 56.71% from 53.53% the prior week.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma fell to 61.113% from 65.83% the prior week.    So, overall the market has a come down a bit from it recent highs

Indicator ReviewOne Negative Change nasi-december-2-2016

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator issued a MACD SELL signal onDecember 2(refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Conclusion  —  Market  May Consolidate Before Next Move

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election, but has slowed down this past week.   So enjoy the ride as long as it lasts and make sure stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal.  I am using a 5% trailing stop.

Have a safe week!

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Nov 27

Market Review comp-november-25-2016

For the week, the DJIA was the again a leader gaining 1.51%, followed by the S&P 500 up 1.44%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 1.45%. The Russell 2000 Index (small-cap stocks) soared 2.40%,  and is up an amazing 18% for the year.  This compares to  9.91% for the DJIA, 8.29% for the S&P 500, 7.82% for the NASDAQ and 3.46% for the BDH strategy.

All major averages are now easily above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.  There were 451 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 450 in the prior week which was a good showing.  However, the  number of new lows dropped drastically to 69 from 355 the prior week which is to be expected as the market surges higher.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas jumped nicely to 63.53% from 54.2% the prior week.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma rose to 65.83% from 62.36% the prior week.    So, overall the market has a decidedly bullish stance.

Bonds got crushed again for the second consecutive week and are now at price levels of January 2016, giving up almost all their gains for the year.    Likewise Gold (GLD) cratered hitting their February lows. Oil prices rose minimally after a nice bounce the prior week.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review – No Changes nasi-november-25-2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on November 10 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest November 23, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 49.9% up from 46.7% the prior week.  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way. Another confirmation of the long term buy signal occurred early this month.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator finally had a BUY signal on November 15,2016 as the MACD had a positive crossover.  This signal resulted in a  BDH Dashboard  “4” BUY reading. Refer to second chart.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “4” BUY Signal

Here is the latest Dashboard:

dashboard-v2-november-25-2016_wc-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The BDH strategy performance has taken a hit over the past few months with trailing stops kicking in and the market’s quick turnaround this week.  For the year-to-date, BDH is up 3.46%  vs. a gain of  7.82% for the NASDAQ Composite, 9.91% for the DJIA, and 8.29% for the S&P 500.  It has now risen to 11th place from 13th place the last few weeks out of a 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of November 11.  Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 5.18% compared to a gain of 4.02% for the three major averages.  If these ETFs continue to outerform the averages the gap between the BDH YTD performance and the three averages should continue to shrink   Check out the spreadsheet:

top-5-etfr-november-25-2016

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance XOP in the Commodities sector, SMH XLF, IYT, XLI and VGT in the Sectors, and the International (BRF ).  Note that BRF has slumped 15.83%% in the last month, but over 6 months is still up 26.52%.

Currently, 25 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52 .

Conclusion  —  Market  Continues Its Vertical Climb 

The stock market has had an amazing run since the election.  No one predicted it.  However, a number of technical indicators are overbought.  However, overbought markets can last for a long time, although a pullback is more than overdue.  So enjoy the ride as long as it last and make sure stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal.  I am using a 5% trailing stop.

Have a safe week!

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Nov 19

This will be shortened blog, as is the case every other week.

Market Review comp-november-18-2016

Last week the market advance continued at a slower pace, but the laggard NASDAQ Composite lead the way higher with a gain of 1.61% followed by the S&P 500 with a gain of 0.81% and the DJIA with a gain of only 0.11%.  Both the DJIA and Russell 2000 hit new highs during the week.

On November 15th, Indicator #8 issued a BUY signal resulting in a maximum BDH Dashboard “4” BUY signal. There were 450 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 394 in the prior week which was a good showing.  However, the  number of new lows also surged to 355 compared to 321 the prior week which is strange in a rising market.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas jumped again to 54.2% from 47% the prior week.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma rose to 62.36% from 60.23% the prior week.    So, overall the market has turned around to the upside based on these two indicators.

Bonds got crushed again for the second consecutive week and are now at price levels of February 2016 giving up significant gains at its peak in early July.    Likewise Gold (GLD) cratered again reaching their April lows. Oil prices rose.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics nasi-november-18-2016

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The BDH strategy performance has vertical climb turnaround since the election  For the year-to-date, BDH is up 1.70%  vs. a gain of  6.27% for the NASDAQ Composite, 8.28% for the DJIA, and 6.75% for the S&P 500.  It has moved to 12th place out of 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

Currently, 20 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52 compared to 16 the prior week.  That shows the market’s new strength

Conclusion  —  Market Establishes Solid Uptrend

This coming week the market may take a breather and give back some of the gains or continue powering ahead based on financial and political news.   Make sure stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal.  I am using a 5% trailing stop.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Nov 13

Market Review comp-november-11-2016

Last week on the last line of my commentary I said: “Look for a wild market day on Wednesday no matter what happens in the election.”  That was spot on, but not in the direction I or most everyone else expected.

The stock market had a wildly positive week precipitated by the unexpected election results.  Pollsters and pundits were predicting and expecting a Clinton win, but that didn’t happen.  Market strategists and talking heads were predicting a 5%-10% market drop if Trump won.  That didn’t happen.

What did happen was totally unexpected, as the Dow Futures fell 850 points during Tuesday night into earlier Wednesday morning, as the Trump victory appeared likely and then was confirmed.  When the market opened for trading it was flat, but then had a huge day up 256 points.  Unbelievable!  Pull up the $indu and $spx charts to the huge market run upby changing the ticker symbol in the first chart.

For the week, the DJIA was the clear leader gaining 5.36%, followed by the S&P 500 up 3.80%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 3.78%. The NASDAQ Composite was the star under performer of the last three weeks.  The Russell 2000 Index (small-cap stocks) soared 10.22%, a monster move in one week.

On November 7, Indicator #2 issued a BUY signal as it crossed above its 100-dma, and on November 10 Indicator #5 issued a BUY signal as the MACD had a positive crossover putting the BDH Dashboard on a “3” BUY signal.  Thus, three ETFs with pass ratings were purchased on the Friday morning up — XLF, IYT and IWM.

All major averages are easily above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas, respectively and the DJIA advanced to new highs for the year on the Friday close. There were 394 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to about 96 in the prior week which was a good showing.  However, the  number of new lows also surged to 321 compared to 191 the prior week.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas  doubled to 47% from 23.40% the prior week.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma rose to 60.23% from 54.08% the prior week.    So, overall the market has turned around to the upside based on these two indicators.

Bonds got crushed this week and are now at price levels of February 2016 giving up significant gains at its peak in early July.    Likewise Gold (GLD) and gold miners (GDX) also had a negative week reaching their April lows. Also, oil prices tumbled to their mid-September lows after hitting new highs around October 20.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review Two Changes nasi-november-11-2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the  SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on November 10 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest November 9, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 38.9% up from 23.5% the prior week. This is a huge increase on a week-to-week basis. This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.This week was another confirmation of the long term buy signal as it rose above the 25% level from the prior week.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator continues to be on its August sell signal. However, there has been a crossover in the top portion of the chart this week and a crossover of the MACD is imminent.  If this occurs, the BDH Dashboared will be on a “4” BUY reading. Refer to second chart.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “3” BUY Signal

Here is the latest Dashboard:

dashboard-v2-november-11-2016_wc-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The BDH strategy performance has taken a hit over the past few months with trailing stops kicking in and the market’s quick turnaround this week.  For the year-to-date, BDH is down 0.54%  vs. a gain of  4.59% for the NASDAQ Composite, 8.16% for the DJIA, and 5.902% for the S&P 500.  It has slipped to 13th place out of 18 strategies followed by that website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is now 100% invested with the purchase of XLF, IYT and IWM on Friday morning.  Since the September 23 BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 0.74% compared to a gain of 1.68% for the major averages —  a reasonable showing considering the market volatility.  Check out the spreadsheet:

top-5-etfr-november-11-2016

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance XOP in the Commodities sector, SMH XLF, XLI and IBBin the Sectors, and the International (BRF ).  Note that this past week that BRF slumped 9.79% and EEM fell 3.84%.

Currently, 16 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52 compared to 4 the prior wek.  That shows the market’s new strength

Conclusion  —  Market Establishes Solid Uptrend

Last week I said:  “The results of the election will determine the market direction going forward.” That has certainly been the case, but not what almost everyone expected with regard to the Trump win and market rebound.  This coming week the market may take a breather and give back some of the gains or continue powering ahead based on financial and political news.   Make sure stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal.  I am using a 5% trailing stop.

Have a safe week!

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.