Blog

Dec 20

Market Review — Holy Cow!!COMP December 19 2014

This is the wildest market that I’ve seen in a long time with violent moves in both directions since the mid-September 2014 initial highs. almost 10% drop to the lows on October 15th to the near 2014 highs this past week. If the market performs strongly next week, then we will probably see another Dashboard BUY signal.

The DJIA had a couple of big days with moves of over 300 and 400 points, while the NASDAQ Composite gained over 100 points two days this week.  And the S&P 500 had moves of over 40 points.  We haven’t seen a week like this in many months.

Bonds had a volatile week closing lower paralleling the move in gold and gold miners..  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ decisively bounced off its 100-dma (green line) and is nearing its highs for the year seen just a few weeks ago.  The MACD line is curling upward and a positive crossover this week if the market moves higher.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 14.1%, the S&P 500 is up 12.0%, and the DJIA is up 7.4%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 13.63%.  Believe it or not the market internals appear to be showing a stalling condition with minimal new highs and increasing new lows for the past few weeks, even though we are near the highs for the year. Last week the number of new highs was 319 compared to 561 new lows. This situation is abnormal and the end result could be a further decline to come — but no one can predict the timing of this potential reversal.

Indicator Review – No ChangesNASI Dec 19 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).  Also, you can see in this chart how close it came to touching the 100-dma.  So far that moving average is acting as support.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a MACD SELL signal on December 2 with additional deterioration since then. (Refer to first chart).  However the MACD is curling up and further market advances will turn this indicator positive again.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 17 Bullish percentage reading was 38.7.% which much lower  than the December 10th bullish percentage reading of 45.0%.  Investors are now a less bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This indicator is on two confirming SELL signals in the past few weeks.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a SELL signal as both the Index and its 5-day EMA and MACD lines had negative crossovers.  However, the Index is close to crossing above its 5 day-ema while the MACD is not showing the same signs.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard  Remains on “1”   SELL

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 Dec 19, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 13.63 % compared an average gain of 11.17% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance (even after being out the market last week) compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes.  The strategy ranked third contains a NASDAQ bull leveraged ETF.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio remains 100%in cash awaiting the next BUY signal. The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 6 ETFs with a “pass” rating which was the same as the prior week. This major   deterioration in the number of ETFs passing the buy test is another excellent indication that the market is being powering ahead by only a small group of strong stocks.  Again,  it is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that many stocks and ETFs are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Remain Safely In Cash

The market experienced a powerful advance last week. We will see whether it can take out the previous 2014 highs.   We’ll watch for the next BUY signal.

Enjoy your holidays.  Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christmas to all!!

Dec 12

Market Review COMP Dec 12 2014

This blog is being written about 1 pm on Friday afternoon instead of this weekend as I will unavailable to write it at that time.  Next week’s blog will be posted during the December 20 weekend.

The market is having a rough week with high volatility and big moves in both directions, but mostly down.  As of mid-day today two major averages are down 2% each for the week, but the DJIA is down a big 3.13%.  So this may be the beginning of larger correction.  Oil is get slaughtered and gold started the week strong but ended on a weak note.

Bonds were the star performers either at or above yearly highs.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ is turning over with the MACD lines continuing to drop.  On Monday, Indicator#8 issued a SELL signal thus placing the Dashboard at a “1” SELL reading as reported in Monday’s interim blog.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 12.44%, the S&P 500 is up 10.21%, and the DJIA is up 5.21%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 13.63%.   The market internals appear to be showing a stalling condition with minimal new highs and increasing new lows for the past few weeks.

Indicator Review – One Change

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a MACD SELL signal on December 2 with additional deterioration since then. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 10 Bullish percentage reading was 45.0.% which slightly higher  than the December 3rd  bullish percentage reading of 42.7%.  Investors are now a bit more bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This indicator is on two confirming SELL signals in the past few weeks.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a SELL signal as both the Index and its 5-day EMA and MACD lines had negative crossovers.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “1”   SELL

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 Dec 12, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 13.63 % compared an average gain of 9.29% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes.  The strategy ranked third contains a NASDAQ bull leveraged ETF.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio is now 100%in cash awaiting the next BUY signal.  The Top 5 table (link below) shows that the portfolio produced a gain of 5.94% for the latest BUY signal in comparison to the 5.82% performance of the averages.  So it made up some lost ground and surpassed the averages when the SELL signal triggered,

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking December 12, 2014

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 6 ETFs with a “pass” rating a decrease from 11 the prior week, a drop of almost 50%.  This deterioration is another indication that the market is in the process of rolling over.    It is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that some market sectors are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Remain Safely In Cash

The market is experiencing a downtrend right now.  We’ll watch for the next BUY signal.

Have a productive week!!

I

 

Dec 08

Market Situation NASI Dec 8 2014

As mentioned in the weekend blog, a SELL signal was near on Indicator #8.  A definitive crossover of the Index by the moving average in conjunction with the prior MACD crossover on the bottom of the chart resulted in this Indicator giving a SELL signal at the close today (see chart on the right).

This resulted in a Dashboard “1” SELL signal.  All five ETFs in the portfolio will be sold at the open tomorrow and the portfolio will remain in cash until the next BUY signal occurs.  A full report will be provided at the end of the week.

 

Dec 06

Market Review COMP Dec 5 2014

After a tumble on Monday the market firmed up a bit the rest of the week as the DJIA and S&P 500 hit all-time highs.  The NASDAQ Composite was the laggard, ending the week with a minimal loss of  0.23%.  The DJIA was the leader up 0.73% followed by the S&P 500 up 0.03%.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ was unable to close at new yearly highs this past week trying to claw its way back after its Monday decline.  Note the MACD negative crossover on Tuesday which resulted in a SELL signal on Indicator #5 (see blue arrow).

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 14.47%, the S&P 500 is up 12.28%, and the DJIA is up 8.34%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 14.68%.  Last week the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE decreased slightly to 455 compared to 477 the prior week. However, there was a large increase in the number of stocks with 52-week lows which totaled 326ompared to 194 the week before.  The market internals appear to be showing a stalling condition with minimal new highs and increasing new lows.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) fell in a volatile week and now a downtrend may be in progress again. Bonds had a mixed week ending a bit lower.In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review – One Change

Indicator #5  had a SELL signal and Indicator #8 is very close to a SELL signal.  So be on the lookout for any market deterioration next week.

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator had a MACD SELL signal on December 2 with additional deterioration the remainder of the week (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 3 Bullish percentage reading was 42.7.% which was much lower than the November 26th  bullish percentage reading of 52.1%.  Investors are now much less bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This week’s reading resulted in a second confirming SELL signal joining the one from a few weeks prior.  Multiple consecutive SELL signals indicates the precarious nature of this market as investors are now unsure of what to make of each week’s market action.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is still on a BUY  signal. During the week on Tuesday the MACD crossed below its trigger line while the Index also had a miniscule negative crossover.  Then the index reversed that signal to an upward crossover on Friday.  So ending the week this Indicator is NOT on a SELL signal at the moment, but continued deterioration in the NASDAQ index next week would reverse that situation.  Note the blue arrows on the nearby chart showing the up and down crossing of the index during the week.

As you know from previous blog posts I wait for a DEFINITIVE crossover of  the MACD and the indexes before generating a BUY or SELL signal on that Indicator.  That was the case here as well. My hesitation on taking miniscule crossovers is to avert the situation that occurred here — whipsawing back and forth with no clear cut result — to avoid being shaken out of the market on noise.

If I had issued a Dashboard “3”SELL signal on Tuesday that would have been premature as the Dashboard closed the week on a Dashboard “2” HOLD signal.  So patience paid off here.  The portfolio is still 100% invested rather than being in cash as a result of that potential SELL signal.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “2”   HOLDNASI Dec 5 2014

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 Dec 5, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 14.68 % compared an average gain of 11.70% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes.  The strategy ranked third contains a NASDAQ bull leveraged ETF.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of the 10/27 open. Since their purchase the Top 5 ETFs are up 7.00% compared to 7.08% for the major averages, as shown in the updated table link below. This ETF portfolio has improved again this past week and is only slightly below the performance of the market averages.  Note that one ETF is ‘fail’ rated compared to two the prior week.

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking December 5, 2014

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 11 ETFs with a “pass” rating a decrease from 20 the prior week, a drop of almost 50%.  This deterioration is another indication that the market maybe in the process of rolling over.    It is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that some market sectors are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Point-and-Figure Chart NYSE  Percent Above 50-dma Dec 5 2014

The number of NYSE stocks above their respective 50-dmas on chart on the right  advanced this week into a column of X’s after hitting a low of 62% earlier in the week.   Note that this indicator was Indicator #1 in the BDH book and explained on pages 107 and 108 of the original printing.

Conclusion  — Dashboard  SELL signal is Near

BDH indicator #5 is on a SELL signal and Indicator #8 can quickly revert to a SELL signal at any time. This would result in a Dashboard “1” SELL signal. So be ready to take action if this occurs next week.

I will post an interim blog only if Indicator #8 issues a SELL signal.

Make sure that you also monitor the chart above for the crossover signal.  We’ve had a great run so far, so taking profits here is not such a bad thing.  Interestingly the last few January’s have had negative returns, although December’s have been strong. We will see how this time period plays out going forward.

I

 

Nov 29

Market Review COMP November 28 2014

In this holiday shortened week, the market tanked about 45 minutes before the close on Friday as gold, gold miners and oil got slammed.  The DJIA lost over 100 points during this drop.  Nevertheless, the market still managed to advance for the week with the NASDAQ Composite leading the way up 1.64% compared to its lackluster performance in the prior week. The DJIA and S&P 500 were much weaker with gains of 0.10% and 0.20%, respectively.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ has broken out to new 2014 highs and its MACD indicator actually improved  (blue arrow at bottom of chart).    We were potentially expecting the MACD to have a negative crossover this past week, but instead it worked its way higher as the NASDAQ continued to solidly advance.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 14.73%, the S&P 500 is up 11.66%, and the DJIA is up 7.55% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 14.19%.  Last week the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE increased slightly to 477 compared to 458 the prior week. There was an increase in the number of stocks with 52-week lows which totaled 194 compared to 122 the week before.  The market internals appear to be showing a stalling condition with minimal new highs and increasing new lows.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) got crushed this week and the potential uptrend mentioned last week has not disappeared .  Bonds had a strong rally as gold fell.  and oil faltered badly hitting four year price lows.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review – No Changes NASI November 28 2014

Although there are no Indicator changes this week, both Indicators # 5 and 8, respectively are close to levels where they could reverse lower.  So be on the lookout for any market deterioration next week.

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator had a clear-cut MACD BUY signal on October 22. (Refer to first chart). Notice on the first chart that the MACD was able to move higher.  A downward crossover (blue arrow on bottom of chart) is possible next week.  If this occurs next week it will be  a SELL signal on this indicator.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest November 26th Bullish percentage reading was 52.1.% which was  higher than the November 19th  bullish percentage reading of 49.7%.  Investors are now more bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This week’s reading was again above the critical 50% level.  So if it drops below 50% in coming weeks it will be considered the second confirming SELL signal joining the one from last week.  This means that excessive bullishness has been reached which usually indicates that the market will reverse direction.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY  signal as an MACD crossover BUY signal occurred on October 23 while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on October 20. Note the two blue arrows on the nearby chart .  The top arrow shows that a crossover did not occur yet, but is very close to occurring.  However, the bottom arrow on the MACD indicator shows the slight downward crossover.  If the NASDAQ declines next week then this indicator will likely issue a SELL signal.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3”   BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 November 28, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 12.09 % compared an average gain of 10.64% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in third place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes tracked.  The strategy ranked second contains a leveraged ETF.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of 10/27 open. Since their purchase the Top 5 ETFs are up 6.50 compared to 6.76% for the major averages ,as shown in the updated table link below. This ETF portfolio has improved this past week and is only slightly below the performance of the market averages.  Note that two ETFs are rated ‘fail’ compared to four the previous week.

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking November 28, 2014

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had 20 ETFs with a “pass” rating an increase from about 18 the prior week.  The number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has remained stable the past three weeks.  It is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that some market sectors are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Point-and-Figure Chart NYSE Percentage of Stocks Above 50-dma.png Nov 28 2014

The number of NYSE stocks above their respective 50-dmas on chart on the right  declined this past week into a column of 0’s from its previous high of 71.4%.   This may be the beginning of change in market direction or just a slight pause. Note that this indicator was Indicator #1 in the BDH book and explained on pages 107 and 108 of the original printing.

Conclusion  — Dashboard  SELL signal is Still Near

Based on the powerful market move over the past four weeks this rally has surprised everyone by its speed and percentage increase.  Interestingly, two BDH indicators – number 5 and 8– are nearing a SELL signals. Last week the market had enough energy to forestall a SELL signal on both indicators.  But based on the quick end of day sell-off on Friday and the continuing price erosion in oil and energy related issues, the market may be entering another consolidation or profit taking cycle.

If the market declines next week  then these two indicators will issue a SELL signals which in turn would result in a Dashboard “1” SELL signal.  I will post an interim blog only when both indicators are on SELL signals.

Make sure that you also monitor the two charts above for those signals.  We’ve had a great run so far, so taking profits here is not such a bad thing.  Interestingly the last few January’s have had negative returns, although December’s have been strong. We will see how this time period plays out going forward.

Continue to enjoy your holiday weekend.

Nov 23

Market Review COMP Nov 21 2014

After resting for two weeks the stock market resumed its uptrend with all three major average making new 52-week highs and both the DJIA and S&P 500 closing at all-time highs by week’s end. Market volatility was subdued with no major news events. Although the NASDAQ Composite closed Friday at it highest closing  price since 2000, it had the weakest performance of the averages this past week.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ has broken out to the upside (blue arrow at top of chart) on Friday, although closing below the opening day’s high .  All three averages have no recent resistance barriers to go higher and all past resistance lines now are labeled as support.  Going forward the next three days prior to Thanksgiving have been historically bullish for the market, and December has been the strongest month of the  year

This past week, the NASDAQ Composite was the worst performer up only 0.52%, followed by the S&P 500 Index up 1.16%, and lastly the DJIA up 0.99%.  For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 12.84%, the S&P 500 is up 11.64%, and the DJIA is up 7.44% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 12.09%.  In Barron’s (November 24 issue page 31), the performance of hedge funds year-to-date is quoted as under 3%, not a very good showing since the the typical hedge fund charges a 2% management fee and 20% of profits.

Last week the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE decreased again to 458  for the third consecutive  week compared to 458 the prior week. There was a slight increase in the number of stocks with 52-week lows which totaled 122 compared to 116 the week before.  Currently there is a negative divergence,  as the number of new highs is declining over the past three weekss while the market averages are rising.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) rallied higher last week after bouncing off a multi-year bottom . Perhaps this is start of the uptrend. We’ll have to wait and see.  Bonds closed Friday little changed for the week.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review – No Changes NASI Nov 21 2014

Although there are no changes this week, there could be two SELL signals next week on Indicators # 5 and 8, respectively.  That would result in a Dashboard SELL signal of 1 of both indicators triggered. See comments below.

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator had a clear-cut MACD BUY signal on October 22. (Refer to first chart). Notice on the first chart that the MACD is near a downward crossover (blue arrow on bottom of chart).  If this occurs next week it will be  a SELL signal on this indicator.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest November 19th Bullish percentage reading was 49.7.% which was much lower than the November 12th  bullish percentage reading of 57.9%.  Investors are less bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This week’s  reading was below the critical 50% level,  therefore it is a CONFIRMING sell signal.  The last signal on September 5th was also a SELL signal.  This type of signal usually occurs when investors are extremely bullish and then back-off and usually occurs at market tops.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY  signal as an MACD crossover BUY signal occurred on October 23 while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on October 20. Note the two blue arrows on the nearby chart which are indicating a potential imminent downward crossover.  If this occurs this indicator will be on a SELL signal.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3”   BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 November 21, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 12.09 % compared an average gain of 10.64% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes tracked.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of 10/27 open. Since their purchase the Top 5 ETFs are up 4.41% compared to 6.07% for the major averages ,as shown in the updated table link below. This ETF portfolio is not performing as strongly as the market so far.  EPI was sold on the Monday at the open and replaced by IYT.  Note that four ETFs are rated ‘fail’, and VNQ’s rank is not at 16  closing in in the 21 level  a sell point.

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking November 21, 2014

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had 18 ETFs with a “pass” rating an increase from about 23 the prior week.  The number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has remained stable the past three weeks.  It is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that some market sectors are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Point-and-Figure Chart NYSE  Percent Above 50-dma Nov 21 2014

The number of NYSE stocks above their respective 50-dmas on chart on the right  advanced to 71.08% from its extreme low reading of 16% on October 17.  There was a movement of another few boxes higher from the prior week. This is a phenomenal move in a four week period. Moreover, it is a very positive sign that could indicate that the recent lows for the 2014 have been seen.  Note that this indicator was Indicator #1 in the BDH book and explained on pages 107 and 108 of the original printing.

Conclusion  — Market SELL signal is Imminent

Based on the powerful market move over the past four weeks this rally has surprised everyone by its speed and percentage increase.  Interestingly, two BDH indicators – number 5 and 8– are nearing a SELL signal downward crossover.  If the market stalls or declines next week these signals may occur.  If both indicators change to SELL signals I will send out an interim blog.  Make sure that you also monitor the two charts above for those signals.  We’ve had a great run so far, so taking profits here is not such a bad thing.  Interestingly the last few January’s have had negative returns, although December’s have been strong.  A continued market advance will postpone any sell signals.

Have a terrific Thanksgiving holiday.

Nov 15

Market Review comp November 14 2014

The stock market rested for the second consecutive week after significant gains in all three major averages since the October 15 intra-day lows.  Both the DJIA and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs during the week. Market volatility was subdued with no major news events. The NASDAQ Composite closed Friday at it highest clsoing  price since 2000, and also managed to have the strongest performance of the averages this past week.

Whether the market continues to surge higher or gives back some of the gains remains to be seen.  A pause to refresh has occurred for the past two weeks and further consolidation is certainly possible before a potential burst higher.   All three of the major averages are well above their respective 50-day, 100-dma and 200-dma which is a very positive sign.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ has broken out the upside (blue arrow at top of chart) of its  horizontal trading range (blue box in the upper right of the chart).  All three averages have no recent resistance barriers to go higher and all past resistance lines now are labeled as support. Typically after a tight range the market makes a big move again, but so the NASDAQ has made a slight move higher exceeding its recent price action.

This past week, NASDAQ Composite was the bestt performer up 1.21%, followed by the S&P 500 Index up 0.39%, and lastly the DJIA up 0.35%.

Last week the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE decreased to 458 compared to 540the prior week. There was a decrease  in the number of stocks with 52-week lows which totaled 116 compared to 172 the week before.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 12.26%, the S&P 500 is up 10.363%, and the DJIA is up 6.38% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 10.83%

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) rallied higher on Friday after a meandering pattern. Gold just bounced off of its four year low and gold mining stocks bounced off their 6-year lows ( low point in the last quarter 0f 2008)!  Perhaps this is end of the downtrend.  We’ll have to wait and see.

Bonds closed Friday little changed for the week.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review – No Changes NASI November 14 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator had a clear-cut MACD BUY signal on October 22. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest November 12th Bullish percentage reading was 57.9.% which was much higher than the November 5th  bullish percentage reading of 52.7%.  Investors are now extremely bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This week’s very high reading is well above the critical 50% level.  Remember going forward that any drop below  50% that level in a subsequent week would be is a CONFIRMING sell signal on this indicator as it reached above 50 on Ausgust 28th and then fell below it the week after.   This indicator continues on its sell signal from September 5th.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY  signal as an MACD crossover BUY signal occurred on October 23 while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on October 20.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating a potential basing and possible upturn in the Index and the MACD. if the market works higher next or beyond.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3”   BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 November 14, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 10.83 % compared an average gain of 9.66% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes tracked.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of 10/27 open. Since their purchase the Top 5 ETFs are up 3.15% compared to 5.13% for the major averages as shown in the updated table link below. This ETF portfolio is not performing as strong as the market.  Actually EPI has dropped below rank 20 and will be sold on Monday at the open.  It will be replaced by IYT.  Note that IBB and VNQ are now rated ‘fail’, and VNQ’s rank has dropped to 18,nearing a sell point.  I have not selected SMH which is ranked higher than IYT because it duplicates QQQ which is also in technology.

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking November 14, 2014

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had 23 ETFs with a “pass” rating an increase from about 24 the prior week.  The number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has remained stable the past three weeks.  It is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that some market sectors are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Point-and-Figure Chart NYSE Percentage of Stocks Above 50-dma.png Nov 14 2014

The number of NYSE stocks above their respective 50-dmas on chart on the right  advanced to 65% from its extreme low reading of 16% on October 17.  There was a movement of two boxes from the prior week. This is a phenomenal move in a three week period. Moreover, it is a very positive sign that could indicate that the recent lows for the 2014 have been seen.  Note that this indicator was Indicator #1 in the BDH book and explained on pages 107 and 108 of the original printing.

Conclusion  — Market Pauses Before Next Move

Based on the powerful market move over the past four weeks this rally appears to be real and have legs for a further advance.  Looking at the angle of ascent of the NASDAQ Composite on the first chart, one can see how steep it is.  Markets can not sustain such as sharp advance for very long.  We did get a pause the past two weeks  with a tight trading range which is considered a normal consolidation .  I suggest that trailing stop LIMIT orders of 7% be placed on all ETFs purchased.  Of course, you should make your own determination of the stop LIMIT price that fits your risk tolerance level.

Have a great week ahead.

Nov 09

Market Review COMP November 7 2014

The stock market rested this week after significant gains in all three major averages since the October 15 intra-day lows.  Both the DJIA and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs again. Triple-digit up days on the DJIA occurred only once this week as price movement and volatility were muted. The NASDAQ Composite closed at it highest price since 2000 during the week , but had the weakest performance of the averages this past week.

Whether the market can continue to surge higher or gives back some of the gains remains to be seen.  A pause to refresh did occur as mentioned as a possiblity last week.  All three of the major averages are well above their respective 50-day, 100-dma and 200-dma which is a very positive sign.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ is in a tight horizontal trading range, as shown in the blue box in the upper right of the chart.  Markets typically needs a period of consolidation before making their next move.  All three averages have no resistance barriers to go higher and all past resistance lines now are labeled as support. Typically after a tight range the market makes a big move again, but the question is in which direction.  We will wait to find out.

This past week, NASDAQ Composite was the worst performer up a measely o.o4%, followed by the S&P 500 Index up 0.65%, and lastly the DJIA leader for the past two weeks up 1.05%.

Last week the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE increased to 540 compared to 441 the prior week. Surprisingly, there was a increase again in the number of stocks with 52-week lows which totaled 172 compared to 156 the week before.  This pattern of increasing new lows is something to track going forward  to see if the internals are somehow weakening.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 10.92%, the S&P 500 is up 9.93%, and the DJIA is up 6.02% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 10.70%

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) got crushed again this week, but managed to rally on Friday. Gold is at a four year low and gold mining stocks are at 6-year lows ( low point in the last quarter 0f 2008)!

Bonds tanked early in the week but closed strongly on Friday closing little changed for the week.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review – No Changes NASI November 7 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator had a clear-cut MACD BUY signal on October 22. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest November 5th Bullish percentage reading was 52.7% which was higher than the October 29th  bullish percentage reading of 49.4%.  Investors are still very bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This week’s high reading above the critical 50% level.  Remember once this level is reached going forward that any drop below that level in a subsequent would be is a sell signal on this indicator.   This indicator continues on its sell signal from September 3rd, but could change any time soon.  So pay attention.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY  signal as an MACD crossover BUY signal occurred on October 23 while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on October 20.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating a potential basing and possible upturn in the Index and the MACD. if the market works higher next or beyond.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3”   BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 November 7, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 10.70 % compared an average gain of 8.96% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes tracked.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of 10/27 open. Since their purchase the Top 5 ETFs are up 3.04% compared to 4.46% for the major averages as shown in the updated table link below. This portfolio actually lost about 0.40% last week and was not as strong as the market.

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking November 7, 2014

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 42 ETFs had 24 ETFs with a “pass” rating an increase from about 25 the prior week.  The number of ETFs with a “pass” rating will increase further as the market moves higher.  It is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that some market sectors are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will not the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds, except for EPI (India).

 

Note that VNQ is ranked 13th and we will watch it closed and replace it in the portfolio if it drops below rank 20.

Point-and-Figure Chart NYSE Stocks Above 50-dma Oct 31

The number of NYSE stocks above their respective 50-dmas on chart on the right  advanced to 60.81% two weeks ago from its extreme low reading of 16% on October 17.  There was no change this week. This is a phenomenal move in a two week period. Moreover a very positive sign and one that could indicate that the recent lows for the 2014 have been seen.  Note that this indicator was Indicator #1 in the BDH book and explained on pages 107 and 108 of the original printing.

Conclusion  — Market Pauses Before Next Move Higher?

Based on the powerful market move over the past three weeks this rally appears to be real and have legs for a further advance.  Looking at the angle of ascent of the NASDAQ Composite on the first chart, one can see how steep it is.  Markets can not sustain such as sharp advance for very long.  We did get a pause this week which is considered a normal consolidation .  I suggest that trailing stop LIMIT orders of 7% be placed on all ETFs purchased.  Of course, you should make your own determination of the stop LIMIT price that fits your risk tolerance level.

Have a great week ahead.

Nov 01

Market Review Comp October 31 2014

The stock market had its second week of significant gains as all three major averages closed at their highs for the year, and the DJIA and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs.  Triple-digit up days on the DJIA occurred on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.  The NASDAQ Composite closed at it highest price since 2000, and has gained 8.57% in the last two weeks, one of the best performing two-week periods in years.

All in all it has been a powerful and rapid “V” shaped rebound off the intra-day bottom on October 15th .  Whether the market can continue to surge higher or gives back some of the gains remains to be seen.  A pause to refresh would be the expected outcome this coming week, but news events on a domestic and worldwide basis will have an impact, as well as earnings releases. All three of the major averages have easily vaulted over their respective 50-day, 100-dma and 200-dma which is a very positive sign.

Looking at the first chart we can see that the Friday candlestick is hanging in mid-air after a big gap opening (see blue arrow pointing down).  This may be the first sign of an “blow-off” market that needs a period of consolidation before making its next move.  All three averages have no resistance barriers to go higher and all past resistance lines now are labeled as support.

This past week, NASDAQ Composite was the second best performer up a solid 3.28%, followed by the S&P 500 Index up 2.72%, and lastly the DJIA leader up 3.48%.

Last week the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE doubled to 441 compared to 214 the prior week. Surprisingly, there was a increase in the number of stocks with 52-week lows which totaled 256 compared to 101 the week before.  This reversal in increasing new lows is something to track going forward  to see if the internals are somehow weakening.

For the year-to-date, with the last two week’s above average gains,the NASDAQ Composite is up 10.87%, the S&P 500 is up 9.18%, and the DJIA is up 4.91% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 11.17%

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) got crushed this week.  Gold is at a four year low and gold mining stocks are at 6-year lows ( low point in the last quarter 0f 2008)!

Bonds got bounced around and closed mixed. In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review – No ChangesNASI October 31, 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator had a clear-cut MACD BUY signal on October 22. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest October 29th Bullish percentage reading was 49.4% which was minimally lower than the October 22th bullish percentage reading of 49.7%.  Investors are still very bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This week’s high reading is nearing the critical 50% level.  Remember if this level is reached going forward that any drop below that level in a subsequent would be considered a sell signal on this indicator.   This indicator continues on its sell signal from September 3rd.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY  signal as an MACD crossover BUY signal occurred on October 23 while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on October 20.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating a potential basing and possible upturn in the Index and the MACD. if the market works higher next or beyond.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3”   BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 October 31, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 11.17 % compared an average gain of 8.32% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes tracked.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of 10/27 open.IBB and VNQ were purchased on October 24 and EPI, QQQ, and  XLV were purchases this past Monday.  Since their purchase the Top 5 ETFs are up 3.48% compared to 3.84% for the major averages as shown in the updated table link below.

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 42 ETFs had 25 ETFs with a “pass” rating an increase from about 13 the prior week.  The number of ETFs with a “pass” rating will increase further as the market moves higher.  It is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that some market sectors are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will not the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds, except for EPI (India).

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking October 31, 2014

Note that VNQ is ranked 9th and we will watch it closed and replace it in the portfolio if it drops below rank 20.

Point-and-Figure Chart NYSE Stocks Above 50-dma Oct 31

The number of NYSE stocks above their respective 50-dmas on chart on the right has advanced to 60.81% from its extreme low reading of 16% on October 17.  This is a phenomenal move in a two week period. Moreover a very positive sign and one that could indicate that the recent lows for the 2014 have been seen.  Note that this indicator was Indicator #1 in the BDH book and explained on pages 107 and 108 of the original printing.

Conclusion  — Market Appears Strong  But Due for a Pause or Profit Taking

Based on the powerful market move over the past two weeks this rally appears to be real and have legs for a further advance.  Looking at the angle of ascent of the NASDAQ Composite on the first chart, one can see how steep it is.  Markets can not sustain such as sharp advance for very long, so expect either a consolidation or profit taking to occur before a continued move higher.  I suggest that trailing stop LIMIT orders of 7% be placed on all ETFs purchased.  Of course, you should make your own determination of the stop LIMIT price that fits your risk tolerance level.

Have a great week ahead.

Oct 26

Market Review COMP October 24 2014

The stock market had one of its best weeks in a few years, as the rally off the October 15 low barreled ahead with a sharp advance.  Triple-digit days on the DJIA occurred every day last week except Monday.   All in all it has been a sharp and fast “V” shaped recovery off the intra-day bottom.  Whether the market surges higher to take out the highs for the year that were set in September or gives back some of the gains remains to be seen.  A pause to refresh would be the expected outcome, but news events on a domestic and worldwide basis will have an impact.

All three of the major averages clearly their 200-dma from below which is a very positive sign.   The S&P 500 is now just a handful of points away from crossing above its 50-dma, while the NASDAQ Composite closed Friday about 4 points above it.  The DJIA is still the laggard about 90 points away from that moving average.  Amazingly, last week the NASDAQ Composite proceeded to vault over and close above its 50-dma, 100-dma, and 200-dma which is very rare occurrence.

Looking at the first chart we can see that the next level of resistance for this average is around 4485.  Since that average is currently at 4483.71 the probability of clearing and closing above that level this coming week should be a breeze.  Then there would be no resistance to attack its yearly high of 4610 made in mid-September.

This past week, NASDAQ Composite was the leader up a solid 5.29%, followed by the S&P 500 Index up 4.12%, and lastly the DJIA up 2.59%.

The market internals finally started to turn up from continued weakness for a least a month.  Last week the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE rose nicely to 214 compared to 10 the prior week. Also, there was a significant reduction in the number of stocks with 52-week lows which totaled totaled 101 compared to 843 the week before.  This is huge reversal in such a short time.

For the year-to-date, with this week’s above average gains,the NASDAQ Composite is up  7.35%, the S&P 500 is up 6.29%, and the DJIA is up 1.3%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 8.00%

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) declined.   Bonds got crushed by week’s end. In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review – Three ChangesNASI October 24 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator had a clear-cut MACD BUY SELL signal on October 22. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest October 15th Bullish percentage reading was 49.7% which was higher than the October 15th bullish percentage reading of 42.7% by a full seven percentage points.  Investors were much more bullish going out six-months into the future than they were a two weeks  ago.  This week’s higher reading is nearing the critical 50% level.  Remember if this level is reached going forward that any drop below that level would be considered a sell signal on this indicator.   This indicator continues on its sell signal from September 3rd.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY  signal as an MACD crossover BUY signal occurred on October 23 while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on October 20.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrows indicating a potential basing and possible upturn in the Index and the MACD. if the market works higher next or beyond.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3”   BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 October 24, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 7.68 % compared an average gain of 0.95% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in first place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes tracked.

Top 5 ETFs –  40% In Cash, but 100% by Monday open

The portfolio is now 40% in cash as of the Thursday BDH Dashboard BUY signal (see interim blog post on Thursday) where IBB and VNQ were purchased as they were the top 2 ETFs with “pass” ratings on that day.  However, as of the Friday close, the following high-rnaked  ETFs had a “pass” ratings: EPI, QQQ, XLV.  Therefore, they will be bought on the open on Monday.

The Top 5 ETF listing containing 42 ETFs had  13 ETF with a “pass” rating an increase from about 3 the prior week and on Thursday.  The number of ETFs with a “pass” rating will increase as the market moves higher.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will not the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds, except for EPI (India).

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking October 24, 2014

Note that VNQ is ranked 9th and we will watch it closed and replace it in the portfolio if it drops below rank 20.

Point-and-Figure Chart NYSE Percentage of Stocks Above 50-dma

The number of NYSE stocks above their 50-dma on chart on the right has advanced smartly to 40.66% from its low reading of 16% on October 17.  This is a very positive sign and one that could indicate that the recent lows for the 2014 have been seen.

Conclusion  — BUY signal timing is not optimal

Based on last week’s market action this rally appears to be real and have legs for a further advance.  The current BUY signal is NOT coming at an optimal point as the market has skyrocketed higher in a “V” shaped bounce back not allowing us to get in at more realistic and lower price levels.  We may get a pullback next week which could be a better time to buy the portfolio.  It is your call how and when you buy the ETFs for your portfolio.  However, we will follow the BDH strategy and make the purchases on Monday.

Have a great week ahead.