Blog

Aug 20

This will be a shortened blog as the market has not doing much the last two weeks.

Market Review

COMP August 19, 2016After reaching all-time highs on Monday, the market meandered and closed the week on a slight down note.  Nevertheless, the recent rally is still holding, although the underlying market is weakening a bit as evidenced by the 410 new 52-week NYSE highs this past week compared to the 550+ in prior weeks.

The interim update on August 16 indicated a change in the Dashboard to a “2” NEUTRAL reading.  Note on the chart that the NASDAQ Comp has been in a tight trading range the past 13 days (green circled area).  A breakout will occur soon, but we nor anyone else knows its direction.  The current ETFs are held in the portfolio with 5% trailing stops.

For the week, the DJIA fell 0.13%, the S&P 500 fell 0.01%, and the NASDAQ Comp gained 0.10%.  Year-to-date the DJIA is up 6.5%, the S&P is up 6.8%, and the NASDAQ up 4.6%.  The BDH strategy is up 6.11%.

Have an enjoyable summer.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Aug 16

Interim Update COMP August 16 2016

Dashboard-V2-August 16 ,2016_WC-1-1

Indicator #5 and #8 when on a SELL signal today resulting in a Dashboard “2” NEUTRAL signal.

NASI August 16 2016All ETF positions are still held.

Aug 13

This will be a shortened blog as is the case every other week, in most cases.

Market Review COMP August 12 2016

This week past week the market continued to advance but at a snail’s pace as the DJIA gained 0.18%, the S&P 500 gained 0.05%, and the NASDAQ Composite was again up 0.23%.  All these averages simultaneously made their all-time highs for the year on Thursday.   Interestingly, three DJIA stocks – MMM, IBM and UNH — have made almost 50% of the Dow’s advance since the Brexit bottom.

There were 551 new 52-week NYSE highs this past week compared to 544 the week before.  This is not a high number of new highs in light of the market’s tremendous advance since February 9, 2016,

The portfolio is still 100% invested, but each of the five ETFs have a “fail” rating.  Also, only 10 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 42 which is very odd with a market at new highs.  So far, fixed income, metals and technology and energy are the relative strength leaders recently.  Interestingly, XLI (now rank 12) and VNQ (9)  have improved ranks from a week ago, SMH dropped to 4 from 3, XLB dropped to 19 from 16, and XLP fell to rank 39 from 36

Bond and gold miner prices rose while gold prices were flat.   Oil prices continued to rally.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

The Dashboard remains on a “3” BUY signal. Indicator #8 came off its recent “SELL” signal as the index is now is above the ema (see the second chart).  Note that on the upper chart the MACD is flattening (red circle) and going between a cross above or below the line during the week.  We will wait for a definitive negative crossover before calling it a ‘SELL’ signal.NASI August 12 2016

Dashboard-V2-August 12 ,2016_WC-1-1

Conclusion  —  Market is Holding Up Well But May Rest Here

We’ll see if the market pauses here to rest before its next move.   Its advance is slowing down. With the market at all-time highs this past week again, a consolidation would be welcomed after this meteoric move in such as short time.  Make sure protective stops are in place.

Have an enjoyable summer.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Aug 06

Market Review comp aUGUST 5 2016

This week past week the market continued to advance although it was the Friday advance that really helped move the market in positive territory by the week’s close.  Finally, the NASDAQ Composite joined the DJIA and S&P 500 in new all-time high territory.  Moreover the tech heavy NASDAQ was again the leader rising 1.14% for the week compared to 0.43% for the S&P and 0.60% for the DJIA.  The recent dip on Monday and Tuesday caused a number of ETFs to experience MACD negative crossovers including all the Top 5 ETFs in our portfolio, but the NASDAQ was able to avoid this situation (see nearby chart).

There were 544 new 52-week NYSE highs this past week similar to the number over the past few weeks.  This is odd as the market has been making new highs. Moreover, all three major averages are well above their respective, 50-, 100-, and 200-dmas.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas jumped to 74.60% from a recent low of 67.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma rose to 77.29% matching the high for the year hit in late July.

Bond, gold and gold miner prices fell as stock rose.   Conversely, yields on the 10- and 30-year bonds this week rose after falling for most of the  year.  Oil prices hit bottom on  Wednesday after falling over 30% from the highs set in early June.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Negative Change NASI August 5, 2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on June 29th, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on July 6,  (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 3, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 29.8% which was down slightly from the prior week. This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator issued a SELL signal on August 4 as the MACD crossed to the downside confirming the prior Index cross over a few days earlier.  Note the green circle where the Index is nearing a positive crossover.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “3” BUY Signal

Here is the latest:

Dashboard-V2-August 5 ,2016_WC-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  Thus, BDH strategy is behind two the major averages year-to-date, but ahead of the NASDAQ. It is in 11th place out of 18 strategies followed by the website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is still 100% invested, but all ETFs have a “fail” rating mostly from  minimal  negative MACD crossover.  This could revert to a “pass” rating soon if the market continuesto work higher

Top-5-ETFAugust 5, 2016

The  ETF portfolio has gained 7.66% since the May 24the BUY signal compared to a gain of 4.99% for the major averages.    YTD the BDH strategy is up 5.52% compared to 4.27 for the NASADAQ, 6.42% for DJIA, and 6.80% for the S&P 500.  This is an excellent result as the entire portfolio was not out of the market for a number of weeks during the year so far.

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

Eleven  ETFs have “pass” rating.  All the ETFs in our portfolio have “fail” ratings

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of metals,  SMH in sectors,  two international ETFs (BRF and EWT ) and fixed income ETFs (TLT).

Conclusion  —  Market is Holding Up Well But May Rest Here

We’ll see if the market pauses here to rest before its next move.  With the market at all-time highs this week, a consolidation would be welcomed after this meteoric move in such as short time.  Make sure protective stops are in place.

Have an enjoyable summer.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Jul 29

This will be another shortened blog due to my summer vacation.  A  full blog will be posted the weekend of August 7.

Market ReviewCOMP July 29 2016

The stock market continues to move higher, but at slower pace than earlier in July.  All three major averages moved higher in July with the NASDAQ Composite finally taking the lead up a solid 6.6%, followed by the S&P 500 advancing 3.6%, and the DJIA up 2.8%.  For the past week, the NASDAQ again was the leader up 1.21%, while the S&P 500  was up a measly 0.06% and the DJIA actually declined 0.8%.

Interestingly, 76% of NYSE stocks are both above their respective 50-dmas and 200-dmas.  The latter is getting close to the highs sets in 2014 at 79% (see chart below). So the market is strong and holding up well even with all the world news.

Year- to- date figures:NYSE % stocks their 200-dma

DJIA + 5.78%

SP 500 +6.48%

NASDAQ Comp +6.68%

BDH Strategy +5.69%

The Top 5 ETF Portfolio can be seen here with their performance for the year and since  the most recent BUY signal:

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php

The BDH strategy remains on its recent BUY signal with all four indicators BULLISH:

Dashboard-V2-July 8 ,2016_WC-1-1

Conclusion

The market’s advance may stall here and move lower as we move into the two seasonally weak months of August and September.  Our trailing stops are set at 5% to protect our principal in case of a downturn.  Note that the NASDAQ in the upper chart is right at resistance for its December 2015 highs.  If it can convincingly break through that level, it will join the DJIA and S&P 500 in attaining a new all-time high.

Have a good week ahead and try to stay cool.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Jul 23

This will be a shortened blog due to my summer vacation.

Market Review COMP July 22 2016

The stock market continues to move higher.  However, the weekly advance of less than 1% is looking tired.  New 52-week NYSE highs were 560 down from the prior week’s 638.    About 81% of NYSE stocks are above their 50-dma compared to only 20% on June 27, and 77% of stocks are above their 200-dma which is  close to the 80% level hit in mid-June 2014.  After such an extended rally the market is due for a rest.

Year- to- date figures:NASI July 22 2016

DJIA + 6.58%

SP 500 +6.41%

NASDAQ Comp +5.47%

BDH Strategy +5.36%

The Top 5 ETF Portfolio can be seen here with their performance for the year and since  the most recent BUY signal:

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php

The BDH strategy remains on its recent BUY signal with all four indicators BULLISH:

Dashboard-V2-July 8 ,2016_WC-1-1

Conclusion

The market’s advance may stall here and move lower as we move into the two seasonal weak months of August and September.  Our trailing stops are set at 5% to protect our principal in case of a downturn.

Have a good week ahead and try to stay cool.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Jul 17

COMP July 15 2016This will be a shortened blog as is there is not much to report, as the market continues to advance.

Market Review

The stock market continued its solid advance since the Brexit bottom, rising 8 – 12%, depending on the major average viewed. The DJIA remains the market leader with a year-to-date rise of 6.26% compared to the S&P 500 advance of 5.76%, and the laggard NASDAQ Composite rise of only 0.44%.  The BDH strategy has advanced 4.45% according to www.dark-liquidity.com.

This past week there were 659 new NYSE 52-week highs and only 11 new lows.  All five of the ETFs in the Top 5 ETF portfolio have “pass” ratings, and overall there were 37 “passes” out of the 52 ETFs in the universe.

Overall, the ETF porfolio is performing well and the stock market has broken through prior resistance into new high territory.  However, the NASDAQ Composite, the Russell 2000, and the DJ Transports have not reached their highs yet.  For the market to advance much further into a full-fledged bull market the other averages need to confirm the move, otherwise the future direction of this move could be in jeopardy.  Make sure stop limits are in place for protection.

Have a great weekend!

Jul 08

This will be a shortened blog post as is the case every other week.

Market Review COMP July 8, 2016

The stock ended this holiday-shortened week with a powerful rally as the DJIA gained 25o points and the NASDAQ Composite gained 80 points.  Look at the circled area on the chart to see the huge rally off the recent lows.  As  last week’s blog indicated a Dashboard BUY signal was imminent.  That occurred on the July 6th close as the MACD had a positive crossover (Indicator #5) on the NASDAQ Composite chart.  This resulted in a “3” Dashboard BUY signal.  That was executed on the open on July 7 where the last three ETFs — XLI, SMH and XLB –that were sold because of trailing stops were repurchased.  On Friday Indicator #8 had a BUY signal as well.  Thus the Dashboard is on a maximum “4” reading.

The ETF Dashboard is presented here: Dashboard-V2-July 8 ,2016_WC-1-1

The ETF Top 5 Portfolio is provided here: Top-5-ETF-July 8, 2016

As you can see in the portfolio it has gained an average of 4.52% since the 5/25/2016 Buy signal vs. 1.60% for the three major averages.  However, it also lost 2.99% and 5.74% on SMH and XLB, respectivley that were sold on 7% trailing stops, while XLI gained 0.92% before it was also sold.  This is bases on Dark-Liqudity’s calculations: www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php

NASI July 8, 2016In any event the portfolio is 100% invested and ready to partake in any future advances.  I recommend at 5% trailing stop at this time in case the market can’t sustain this remarkable comeback after only 8 days from its recent low.

Have a great weekend!!

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Jul 02

Market Review comp July 1 2016

This week past week the market experienced a huge turnaround from the Brexit rout on the previous Friday and Monday.  From the intra-day lows on Monday, the NASDAQ Composite was up 6.3% by Friday’s close (see big circle on the chart).  Unfortunately, on Monday and Tuesday three ETFs — XLI, SMH and XHB — in the BDH portfolio were stopped out at their 7% stops and therefore did not participate in the ensuing rally.  Only VNQ and XLP remain invested.  The Dashboard is on a “2” NEUTRAL reading, coming off a ‘SELL’ reading.

The market powered ahead Tuesday through Friday with the three major averages up about 3.2% each.  Even the FTSE 100 Index in the UK closed above its  pre-Brexit vote levels which is quite amazing.  Due to this week’s strong rebound in the U.S. two major averages — DJIA and S&P 500– are higher for the year, up 3.0% and 2.89%, respectively.  The NASDAQ Composite is still the laggard down 2.89%.  The BDH strategy is up only 0.03% mostly due to 60% cash position as the rally began.

There were 587 new 52-week NYSE highs this past week exceeding the 513 new highs three weeks ago, reached as the market was approaching the year’s highs.  This is a very positive sign of more participation in the rally.  Moreover, all three major averages are above their respective, 50-, 100-, and 200-dmas.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas jumped to 65.57% from 56.30% a week earlier.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma rose to 69.30% from 67.47%  the prior week. Believe it or not. this percentage fell to 15.50% in January 2016.  So this market has come a long way back in a short time, but has given back some of its gain since early June.

Bond prices continued to surge and closed on Friday at their highs for the year.   Conversely, yields on the 10- and 30-year bonds this week set all-time lows.  Gold (GLD) prices and gold miners (GDX) also surged to their highs for the year. Oil prices closed higher for the week.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Positive Change NASI July 1 2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on June 29th, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on June 13th,  (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).  An MACD positive crossover is imminent (see bottom of top chart with circled area).  If this crossover occurs this week then the Dashboard would be on a new BUY signal.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest June 29th 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 27.3% which was above the critical 25% level  This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way including the one this week

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator issued a SELL signal on April 8 as the Index crossed to the downside over the 5 day-ema confirming the prior MACD SELL signal.  However, on June 30 the 5-dma had a positive crossover of the index (see second chart), but the MACD is still a ways away from a positive crossover.  If this MACD crossover occurs this week, then this indicator will be on a BUY signal and the Dashboard will be on a BUY signal

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

Here is the latest:

Dashboard-V2-July 1 ,2016_WC-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  Thus, BDH strategy is behind two the major averages year-to-date, but ahead of the NASDAQ as mentioned earlier. It is in 11th place out of 18 strategies followed by the website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   40% Invested

The portfolio is still 100% invested.

Top-5-ETF-July 1, 2016

The  ETF portfolio has gained 0.61 % since the May 24the BUY signal compared to a gain of 0.16% for the major averages.   This is a good result as the entire portfolio did not participate in the bounceback this past week.  Going forward the portfolio needs to 100% invested if it is to be competitive with the indexes if the market races higher from here.

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

Twenty-three  ETFs have “pass” rating.  The ETFs in our portfolio have “pass” ratings, and the sold ones have a “fail” rating.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of metals,  utilities and fixed income ETFs.

Conclusion  —  Market in Short-Term Four Day Up Trend and New BUY Signal is Imminent

The market approached its April 2016 highs in early June, but the rally has since faded, especially with the unexpected Brexit vote.  Here we are again with the S&P 500 and DJIA approaching their yearly highs, butwith the NASDAQ badly lagging.  We’ll see if the market pauses here to rest before its next move.  A strong advance early in the week will result in a Dashboard BUY signal.  Make sure to check the charts every day so you don’t miss the signal.  I will post an interim update if this situation occurs.

Have an enjoyable and restful July 4 weekend!

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Jun 28

Interim Update

XLB was sold today at $44.97 its 7% stop.  VNQ and XLP are only positions open.