Blog

Sep 25

Market Review

comp-september-23-2016Eleven days ago the market took a big one day hit with the DJIA falling over 400 points.  After a few days of roller-coaster action, the market settled down and started to work its way higher after the Fed meeting.  Due to the volatility four of the ETF positions in the portfolio were sold at their trailing stops.  On Thursday, as the NASDAQ closed at another record high, Indicator #5 issued a BUY signal (see green circled area on bottom of chart).  Therefore, on Friday morning’s open, five ETFs were purchased and the remaining ETF (XLI) was sold due to its low ranking.  All five new ETFs had “pass” ratings which is the preferred criteria.

Again the NASDAQ Composite was the star performer of the week up 1.17% followed by the S&P 500 up 1.19% and the DJIA up 0.76%.  There were 233 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 99 the prior week.   On a negative note,  the S&P 500 and DJIA are still below their respective, 50-dmas, while the  NASDAQ is way above it.  If these two averages do not penetrate this average to the upside in the next week or so, then the market may head lower or stay in a trading range.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas jumped up to 62% during the week from 33.4 %the prior week, but with Friday’s decline this number ended the week at 55.8%, still a big rise in one week. The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma rose  to 77.91% compared to 73.14% the prior week.  So overall the market is strengthening based on these two indicators.

Bonds rose again and closed at their highest level in the last dozen days. Gold (GLD) also had a positive week, but gold miners fell hard on Thursday and Friday.  Oil prices moved up minimally.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review One Change nasi-september-23-2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on June 29th, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on September 22 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 21, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 24.8% down from 27.9% the prior week. This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had an positive index crossover on Thursday, but the MACD has not yet confirmed it.  A market rally this week will turn this indicator positive and result in a “4” maximum BDH BUY signal. Refer to second chart.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “3” BUY Signal

Here is the latest Dashboard:

dashboard-v2-september-22-2016_wc-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The BDH strategy performance has taken a hit with the sale of ETFs that proceeded to rally after they were sold. For the year-to-date, BDH is up only 2.82% vs. 5.96% for the NASDAQ Compostie, 4.80% for the DJIA, and 5.91% for the S&P 500.  It is slipped to 12th place out of 18 strategies followed by that website, whereas it was in 7th place threeo weeks ago.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is now 100% invested as of the open on Friday — SLV, SMH, IWM, IBB, and EEM.  As the market sank on Friday, these ETFs lost 0.70% as a group, compared to a loss of 0.47% for the major averages as shown in the updated spreadsheet.

 top-5-etf-september-23-2016

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of gold miners, silver and  oil exploration,  as well as SMH, QQQ and VGT in sectors, and three international ETFs (BRF, EPI, EWT).

Currently, 16 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52 with all of those in the portfolio having a “pass” rating.

Conclusion  —  Market is Trying to Work Its Way Higher

The market will run into more volatility resulting from the election debate performances of the candidates, and certainly the final results of the election night, as well as future Fed pronouncements and world events.

The market is struggling to get above the 50-dmas in two cases. Pull up the $indu and $spx charts to see those levels.  We are still in the dangerous month of September, so be careful.  I have placed 5% trailing stops on the new ETF positions going forward to protect principal in case of a rout which is always possible at any time.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Sep 22

Interim Update

The stock market powered higher the last few days resulting in a Dashboard BUY signal today after

Indicator #5 had a positive MACD crossover.  We waited an additional day to make sure the crossover held.

Therefore, as of the open on Friday we are buying the following 5 ETFs: SLV,SMH,IWM,IBB, and EEM.  We are selling XLI as it is low in the rankings.

Sep 17

Market Review comp-september-16-2016

On September 9th, Friday, the market had a substantial drop.  On Monday this past week it made a nice recovery, but gave it back again, and then worked its way a bit higher, closing the week on a down note.  It appears that the market is trying to stabilize at current levels (DJIA 18,000, S&P 500 2120, and NASDAQ Composite 5100).

The NASDAQ Composite was the star performer of the week up 2.3% followed by the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the DJIA up 0.02%.  With the technology stocks leading the way higher and nearing their highs of the year made the prior week (see accompanying chart), the situation is improving and this is a positive sign going forward.

Due to the market volatility two more ETFs were sold on September 12 and 13, respectively XLP and XLB, at their 5% trailing stops.  Thus, only XLI is the remaining ETF in the portfolio.

Indicator #5 may issue a BUY signal this week if the NASDAQ continues to accelerate higher and the MACD has a positive crossover (red circled area on chart). There were only 99 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 456 the prior week.   On a negative note,  the S&P 500 and DJIA are below their respective, 50-dmas, while the  NASDAQ is above it.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas cratered to 33.4 % compared to 44.5% the prior week.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma fell to 73.14% compared to 75.5% the prior week.

Bonds rose for four days after a big drop on Monday. Gold (GLD) has declined the last 7 out of 8 days now testing at quadruple bottom at $125.  Gold miners were down the last 6 out of 8 days, as well. Oil prices slumped again this week approaching the lows of the last eight days.    In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review No Changes nasi-september-16-2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on June 29th, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on August 16  (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator), but the MACD is starting to turn upward and may cross over this week if the rally continues.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 14, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 27.9% which was down 1.80% from the prior week. This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator issued a SELL signal on August 4 as the MACD crossed to the downside confirming the prior Index cross over a few days earlier.  Currently this indicator shows no signs of turning bullish.  Refer to second chart.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Remains on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

Here is the latest Dashboard:

dashboard-v2-september-16-2016_wc-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  The BDH strategy performance has taken a hit with the recent market downdraft.  A few weeks go it was ahead of the major averages year-to-date with a gain of 6.74%, but is now up only 3.04%. It is slipped to 9th place out of 18 strategies followed by that website, whereas it was in 7th place two weeks ago.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   20% Invested

The portfolio is only 20% invested with XLI the only open position. Only four ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52.  Two ETFs were sold early in the week when they hit their 5% trailing stops.  The details are in the spreadsheet:

top-5-etf-september-16-2016

The  ETF portfolio has gained 5.18% since the last BUY signal compared to a gain of 3.66% for the major averages.    This significant out performance shows the benefit using the relative strength approach.  In particular note the 14.28% gain in SMH.

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

Four  ETFs have “pass” rating.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of gold miners, silver and  oil exploration,  as well as SMH, QQQ and VGT in sectors, and three international ETFs (BRF, EPI, EWT).

Conclusion  —  Market is Stabilizing

The market held at the levels mentioned in the first paragraph.  Pull up the $indu and $spx charts to see those levels.  We are still in the dangerous month of September, so the future direction of the market is unclear.  The outcome of the Fed meeting on Wednesday will impact prices going forward.  If we do get a BUY signal on Indicator #5, then we will become 100% invested even though the ETFs may not have a “pass” rating.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Sep 12

Interim Report

XLP was sold at $53.22 hitting its 5% trailing stop.  So the portfolio is now 60% in cash.

Sep 11

This will be a shortened weekly review.

Market Review comp-september-9-2016

This past Monday the market hit new highs again, but the party ended on Friday with a big down day as fears of a Fed Reserve imminent rate hike and other foreign central bank actions were not market friendly.  After such a spectacular rise since Brexit, this was the worst day since then.

The multi-week trading range in the NASDAQ Composite has been decisively broken (see green box in first chart).  The blue support line at 5190 was also broken to the downside.  Moreover, the three major averages have pierced there 50-day moving averages to the downside, while the DJIA has also fell slightly below its 200-dma.

There were 456 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 404 the prior week.  The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas cratered to 44.49% after hitting 67.59% last week.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma fell  to 75.52% from 79.87% the prior week.

Bonds fell hard  as yields rose. Gold and gold miner prices declined on Friday.  Oil prices ended the week higher.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review nasi-september-9-2016No Changes

Dashboard Remains on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

Here is the latest:

dashboard-v2-september-9-2016_wc-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  Thus, BDH strategy is up only 3.17% for the year losing a big 3.57% last week, while the major averages lost about 2.4% each.  YTD the DJIA is up 3.79%, the S&P 500 is up 4.10%, and the NASDAQ Composite is up only 2.37%.

The BDH strategy is now in 10th place out of 18 strategies followed by the website from 7th place the prior week.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   60% Invested

The portfolio is 60% invested as two ETFs were sold on Friday due to hitting their 5% trailing stops as follows:

SMH sold at $63.87 and VNQ SOLD AT $88.27.  The trailing stops for the current positions are as follows:

XLI at $56.37; XLB at $47.09; and XLP at $53.22

A weak opening on Monday would result in additional ETFs being sold, as they are near their trailing stop prices

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page with the latest data: 

http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

Conclusion  —  Market Situation To Be Determined

We’ll see if the market can rebound from Friday’s pounding or begin a correction.  The Fed’s next meeting on September 21 will impact prices going forward. Make sure your protective stops are in place.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Sep 04

Market Review COMP September 2 2016

This week past week the market performance was lackluster, although it closed higher by week’s end. Right now the market is again near its yearly hihgs with the DJIA 170 points away, the S&P 500 11 points away, and the NASDAQ Composite 20 points away.  A  NASDAQ solid close above 5275 would break it out of the three week trading range (see green box in chart).

There were only 404 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 409 the prior week.  This is odd as the market is very near new highs. On a positive note,  all three major averages are well above their respective, 50-, 100-, and 200-dmas.

The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas jumped to 67.59% after hitting a recent low at 63%.  The percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma rose to 79.87% near the recent high for the year at 80%.  This is the highest reading of this indicator since May of 2013.  So we are in nose bleed territory where prior reversals in price have occurred.   

Bonds fell as yields rose. Gold and gold miner prices fell to a the gap up occurring at the Brexit vote.  These two ETFs have had a riller coaster ride since that vote rising and falling 5 to 6% four times.  Put GLD into the ticker field in the first chart to see this wild action.

Oil prices slumped this week  approaching its lows in early April and August. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

Indicator Review No Changes NASI September 2 2016

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on June 29th, 2016 (see first chart above).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on August 16  (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 31, 2016 Bullish Percentage reading was 28.6% which was down 0.80% from the prior week. This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator issued a SELL signal on August 4 as the MACD crossed to the downside confirming the prior Index cross over a few days earlier.  Note the green circle where the Index is nearing a positive crossover.  However, the MACD shows no sign of turning up at the moment, as the confirming indicator.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Remains on “2” NEUTRAL Signal

Here is the latest:

Dashboard-V2-September 2 ,2016_WC-1-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  Thus, BDH strategy is now ahead of the major averages year-to-date with a gain of 6.74%, compared to 6.66% for the S&P 500, 6.12% doe rhw DJIA, and 4.84% for the NASDAQ.  It is in 7th place out of 18 strategies followed by the website.  See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.

Top 5 ETFs –   100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested, but all ETFs have a “fail” rating mostly from  minimal  negative MACD crossover.  These will revert to a “pass” rating if the market continues to work higher.  Here is the latest update:

Top-5-ETF September 2, 2016

The  ETF portfolio has gained 8.87% since the last BUY signal compared to a gain of 5.05% for the major averages.    This significant out performance shows the benefit using the relative strength approach.  In particular note the 19.45% gain of SMH.

Decision Page

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

Six  ETFs have “pass” rating.  All the ETFs in our portfolio have “fail” ratings.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of gold miners, silver and  oil exploration,  as well as SMH and VGT in sectors,  three international ETFs (BRF, EPI and EEM ) and fixed income ETFs (TLT).

Conclusion  —  Market is Holding Up Well

We’ll see if the market can exceed its recent all-time highs or experience a decline.   Make sure protective stops are in place.

Have an enjoyable Labor Day weekend.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Aug 28

This will be another shortened blog, as the market has not done much the last few weeks.

Market Review

COMP August 26 2016After reaching all-time highs ten days ago, the DJIA and S&P 500 had a mild down week.  In contrast, the NASDAQ Composite hit a new intra-day high of 5275.74 this past Tuesday.  With all the focus on Yellen’s potential comments at the Jackson Hole meeting, one would have expected fireworks.  Of course that did not happen.

Overall for the week, the DJIA fell 0.85%, the S&P 500 fell 0.68%, and the NASDAQ Comp fell 0.37% Year-to-date the DJIA is up 5.57%, the S&P is up 6.12%, and the NASDAQ up 4.99%.  The BDH strategy is up 5.68% and remains fully invested.  So far, SMH is up a blistering 18.25%:

http://www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php

The recent rally is still holding, although the underlying market is weakening a bit as evidenced by the 409 new 52-week NYSE highs this past week compared to the 410 the week before.

The Dashboard remains on its August 6th NEUTRAL signal.

Dashboard-V2-August 12 ,2016_WC-1-1

As the chart shows, the NASDAQ Composite has been in a tight trading range (green box) the past two weeks.  A breakout will occur soon, hopefully to the upside, but more likely to the downside.  Historically, September and October can be treacherous months so pay attention to you portfolio and stops.  The BDH strategy is based on rules not on emotion.

Enjoy the last week of summer and the Labor Day weekend.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Aug 20

This will be a shortened blog as the market has not doing much the last two weeks.

Market Review

COMP August 19, 2016After reaching all-time highs on Monday, the market meandered and closed the week on a slight down note.  Nevertheless, the recent rally is still holding, although the underlying market is weakening a bit as evidenced by the 410 new 52-week NYSE highs this past week compared to the 550+ in prior weeks.

The interim update on August 16 indicated a change in the Dashboard to a “2” NEUTRAL reading.  Note on the chart that the NASDAQ Comp has been in a tight trading range the past 13 days (green circled area).  A breakout will occur soon, but we nor anyone else knows its direction.  The current ETFs are held in the portfolio with 5% trailing stops.

For the week, the DJIA fell 0.13%, the S&P 500 fell 0.01%, and the NASDAQ Comp gained 0.10%.  Year-to-date the DJIA is up 6.5%, the S&P is up 6.8%, and the NASDAQ up 4.6%.  The BDH strategy is up 6.11%.

Have an enjoyable summer.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Aug 16

Interim Update COMP August 16 2016

Dashboard-V2-August 16 ,2016_WC-1-1

Indicator #5 and #8 when on a SELL signal today resulting in a Dashboard “2” NEUTRAL signal.

NASI August 16 2016All ETF positions are still held.

Aug 13

This will be a shortened blog as is the case every other week, in most cases.

Market Review COMP August 12 2016

This week past week the market continued to advance but at a snail’s pace as the DJIA gained 0.18%, the S&P 500 gained 0.05%, and the NASDAQ Composite was again up 0.23%.  All these averages simultaneously made their all-time highs for the year on Thursday.   Interestingly, three DJIA stocks – MMM, IBM and UNH — have made almost 50% of the Dow’s advance since the Brexit bottom.

There were 551 new 52-week NYSE highs this past week compared to 544 the week before.  This is not a high number of new highs in light of the market’s tremendous advance since February 9, 2016,

The portfolio is still 100% invested, but each of the five ETFs have a “fail” rating.  Also, only 10 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 42 which is very odd with a market at new highs.  So far, fixed income, metals and technology and energy are the relative strength leaders recently.  Interestingly, XLI (now rank 12) and VNQ (9)  have improved ranks from a week ago, SMH dropped to 4 from 3, XLB dropped to 19 from 16, and XLP fell to rank 39 from 36

Bond and gold miner prices rose while gold prices were flat.   Oil prices continued to rally.  In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.

The Dashboard remains on a “3” BUY signal. Indicator #8 came off its recent “SELL” signal as the index is now is above the ema (see the second chart).  Note that on the upper chart the MACD is flattening (red circle) and going between a cross above or below the line during the week.  We will wait for a definitive negative crossover before calling it a ‘SELL’ signal.NASI August 12 2016

Dashboard-V2-August 12 ,2016_WC-1-1

Conclusion  —  Market is Holding Up Well But May Rest Here

We’ll see if the market pauses here to rest before its next move.   Its advance is slowing down. With the market at all-time highs this past week again, a consolidation would be welcomed after this meteoric move in such as short time.  Make sure protective stops are in place.

Have an enjoyable summer.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.