Blog

Aug 10

Market Review comp August 8 2014

The stock market had a volatile week resulting from continuing tensions and turmoil overseas and U.S. economic reports.  The big decline on Thursday was recovered on Friday.  So the NASDAQ Composite is resting just below its highest resistance line at 4378 (see blue arrow on accompanying chart).  Also it is just below its 50-dma, but still above the 100-dma. The Dashboard remains on its “1” SELL signal.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.41%,  followed by the S&P 500 advancing 0.33%. The DJIA gained 0.36% .  New NYSE 52-week highs fell to 106 from  260 the prior week indicating the weakening market internals (new lows came in at 196).

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 4.63%, the S&P 500 is up 4.48%, and the DJIA is down 0.14%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and is still  100% in cash.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had a positive weak. Bonds had a positive week reaching new highs for the year.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI August 8 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 9 . (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the bounce up  below the new double top resistance line.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest August 6th  bullish percentage reading was 30.9% which was  bit lower than the July 30th  bullish percentage reading of 31.1%. Investors are just slightly less bullish going out six-months into the future.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 10, while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on July 8.  Refer to the second chart and the blue arrow indicating the slight upturn in the red line (Index), but still not a crossover to the upside yet.  Remember that any crossover in the upper graph requires a crossover of the MACD in the lower graph.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 August 8 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 2.99% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash

No ETFs are held at this time.

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has been at 1 out of 42 for the past two weeks indicating he damage done to most market segments . 

Conclusion – Market Holds Up in Rough Week

The market survived the international events with a solid rally back on Friday that turned the week’s performance from negative to positive.  Continued events overseas will rattle the markets, but the overall trend will soon reveal itself.  Typically, the September-October months are very weak without outside factors.  So we’ll see what develops. Being 100% in cash is certainly acceptable based on the current situation   We will wait patiently in cash for the next Dashboard buy signal.

Aug 02

Market Review COMP August 1 2014

The stock market was unable to sustain its powerful advance in light of continued geopolitical events, an Argentine debt problem, mixed economic data, and weakening market internals.  The Dashboard remains on its “1” SELL signal.

On Thursday, the NASDAQ slashed through its upper resistance line (see blue arrow on chart) and 50-dma with gusto and is now only 2.2% away from its 100-dma.  Falling through that level would place the Dashboard at a “0” SELL reading, the maximum SELL position.  The market’s big gap down and continued losses on Thursday was followed by a minimal rally by 10 AM on Friday, but that fizzled as the market ended the day lower.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite fell the least at 2.18%,  followed by the S&P 500 losing 2.69% it’s worst weekly performance since May 2012. The DJIA lost 2.75% or 467 points .  New NYSE 52-week highs fell to 260 from 435 the prior week indicating the weakening market internals.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 4.22%, the S&P 500 is up 4.15%, and the DJIA is down 0.50%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and is  100% in cash.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had a volatile weak with overall losses for the week, but with a rebound on Friday.  Bonds were mixed with some volatile price changes.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI August 1 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and only 2.2% over its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 9 . (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the bounce up  below the new double top resistance line.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 30th bullish percentage reading was 31.1% which was  bit higher than the July 23rd  bullish percentage reading of 29.6%. Investors are more bullish going out six-months into the future.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 10, while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on July 8.  Note the two downward blue arrows.  (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two downward crossover areas .)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 August 1 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 2.62% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash

No ETFs are held at this time.

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now only 1 out of 42 which indicates the damage done to the market over the past few weeks. 

Conclusion – Market Takes a Beating

The market finally succumbed to  weeks of internal weakness as pointed out in previous blogs and the impact of domestic and international events.  Whether this is down swing will continue over the next few days, weeks or months or instead will be relatively short-lived remains to be seen.

Being 100% in cash is certainly acceptable based on the current situation   We will wait patiently in cash for the next Dashboard buy signal.

Jul 26

Market Review Comp Juy 25 2014

Overall, even with geopolitical events taking center stage the market held its own by not reacting negatively.  The Dashboard remains on its “1” SELL signal.

The NASDAQ Composite hit a double top at 4485 as evidenced by the blue arrow and the new resistance line at that level.  Either the NASDAQ will break through this level on the upside or test the resistance level penetrated the week before either by bouncing off it to the upside or slashing through it on the downside.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.39%,  followed by the S&P 500 gaining 0.01%. The DJIA actually lost 0.82% and did not hit a new high 2014 last week while the S&P 500 did on Thursday.  New NYSE 52-week highs totaled 435 up from 386 the prior week.  That indicates the market’s internals are strengthening  a bit.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.54%, the S&P 500 is up 7.03%, and the DJIA is up only 2.32%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and is  100% in cash.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) had slight losses for the week while bonds were mixed with some volatile price changes.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI July 25 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 9 . (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the bounce up  below the new double top resistance line.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 23rd bullish percentage reading was 29.6% which was lower than the July 16th  bullish percentage reading of 32.4%. Investors are less  bullish going out six-months into the future, as they may be getting concerned about the market’s continued advance without a meaningful correction.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 10, while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on July 8.  Note the two downward blue arrows.  (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two downward crossover areas .)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-July-25-2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 5.26% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash

No ETFs are held at this time.

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now only 8 out of 42, just 2 better than the prior week.  This low level of “pass” ratings in a market making new highs is not encouraging.

Conclusion – Market Holds Steady in Light of Disturbing  Global Events

The market has held up very well in light of global events the past two weeks. Being 100% in cash is certainly acceptable based on the precarious situation overseas.  We will wait patiently in cash for the next Dashboard buy signal.

Jul 20

Market Review COMP July 18 2014

The market had a rough week with geopolitical events taking center stage.  Nevertheless, it recovered nicely by week’s end with small gains.  The Dashboard remains on its “1” SELL signal.

The NASDAQ Composite dropped below its closest resistance line (see chart to the right) on Thursday, but closed it above it on Friday after a nice recovery from the Thursday lows.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite had the weakest performance  rising 0.38%,  followed by the S&P 500 gaining 0.54%. The DJIA gained the most at 0.92% and hit a new high 2014 during the week as well.  New NYSE 52-week highs totaled 386 above the  308 from the prior week.  That indicates the market’s internals are strengthening slightly.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 6.12%, the S&P 500 is up 7.03%, and the DJIA is up only 3.16%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and is  100% in cash.

Gold (GLD) and, gold mining issues (GDX) had a wild week, but ended on the downside while bonds continued their march higher.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No ChangesNASI July 18 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 9 . (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the bounce up off the resistance line.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 16th bullish percentage reading was 32.4% which was lower than the July 9th  bullish percentage reading of 37.6%. Investors are  less  bullish going out six-months into the future, as they may be getting concerned about the market’s continued advance without a meaningful correction.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 10, while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on July 8.  Note the two downward blue arrows.  (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two potential downward crossover areas if the market falls next week.)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-July 18 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 5.44% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Cash

No ETFs are held at this time.

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now only 6 out of 42, the lowest number in months.  This decrease is worrisome as many ETFs have experienced MACD sell signals.

Conclusion – Market Holds Steady in Light of Disturbing  Global Events

It looked like the beginning of the correction after the market’t pummeling on Thursday.  Amazingly, the market rebounded smartly and even ended the week higher. So we’ll have to wait and see what develipes.  Being 100% in cash is certainly acceptable based on the precarious situation overseas.  We will wait patiently in cash for the next Dashboard buy signal.

 

 

Jul 12

Market Review COMP July 11 2014

The market experienced two big down days this past week with minor recovery by week’s end.  This down swing resulted in Indicators #5 and #8 issuing Dashboard SELL signals, as the MACD was breached to the downside.  Currently, the Dashboard resides at “1”.  The NASDAQ Composite is well above its 100-dma (Indicator #2) so the likelihood of the Dashboard falling to a “0” rating is not imminent.

The NASDAQ dropped below its highest resistance level (top blue horizontal line) on Thursday, but was able to close above it by Friday.  Most likely, this index will either form a head-and-shoulders pattern if it continues to decline or hit another yearly high if it rises.

For the week, the NASDAQ Composite had the worst performance  falling 1.57%,  followed by the S&P 500 losing 0.90%. The DJIA declined the least at 0.73%.  New NYSE 52-week highs totaled 308, down substantially from  599 the prior week.  That indicates the market’s internals are weakening.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 5.72%, the S&P 500 is up 6.45%, and the DJIA is up only 2.21%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.62% this year, and is now 100% in cash.

Gold (GLD), gold mining issues (GDX) and bonds all solid  advanced during the week. GDX is nearing its highs for the year. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –Two Changes

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 9 . (Refer to first chart).  Note the blue arrow indicating the downward crossover..

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest July 9th bullish percentage reading was 37.6% which was slightly lower than the July 2nd  bullish percentage reading of 38.5%. Investors are slightly less  bullish going out six-months into the future, as they may be getting concerned about the market’s continued advance without a meaningful correction.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on July 10, while the Index crossed below its 5 day-ema on July 8.  Note the two downward blue arrows.  (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two potential downward crossover areas if the market falls next week.)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-July 11 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.62 % compared an average gain of 4.79% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

All  ETFs ( EPI, IYT, XLB, VGT and XLV) were sold at the open on Friday.   You should note that all five had a “fail” rating with a negative reading in their MACD column.  During this last Dashboard BUY signal the portfolio gained only 2.06% compared to the bcnchmark average of 3.28%.  The volatility of EPI and the lost of 2.03% in this ETF contributed to its poorer performance.

See table showing the results of the Top 5: Top 5 ETF Tracking July 11, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now only 7 out of 42, the lowest number in months.  This decrease is worrisome as many ETFs are experiencing MACD sell signals.

Conclusion – Market Sells Off

The market’s two big down days this past week, coupled with many more “fail” ratings in our ETF listing finally resulted in a Dashboard SELL signal.  This signal was not unexpected in light of the market’s weakening internals (e.g., number of new highs compared to prior market peaks).  This week may be the beginning of the third quarter correction that many are expecting.  We will wait patiently in cash for the next Dashboard buy signal.

 

 

Jul 10

COMP July 10 2014

Market Situation

The stock market had two major down days this week culminating in a Dashboard SELL signal “1” at today’s close.  Indicator #5 (see first chart) and #8 (see second chart) , issued SELL signals on July 9 and 10th, respectively.

Accordingly, the current Top 5 ETF portfolio will be sold at their opening prices on Friday morning.

A full report will be provided this weekend.

NASI July 10 2014

Jul 04

CORRECTION TO JULY 4 BLOG

Market ReviewComp July 4 2014

This will be an abbreviated review this holiday weekend,  The full market review will be provided next weekend.

The stock market continued its upward move with the NASDAQ advancing over 2% this week leading all three averages higher.  Indicator #6 was set to a “0” reading from a -1 as it

has not changed its value in six months.  This still leaves the Dashboard at a “3” bullish reading.  This can be seen in the table:

Dashboard-V2-July 4 , 2014

The Top 5 ETFs are doing well,  are aup 8.88% for the YTD as seen on www.dark-liquidity.com.

10% Correction Coming?

Some readers of this site are concerned about the market’s continued advance without having a 10% correction since October 2011.  The question I’ve been asked is

what do my indicators show regarding a possible correction of this magnitude and when will that correction occur.  Most technical indicator are showing a strong market or an overbought condition.

Thus, the market is still in an uptrend and could go even higher.  Nevertheless, the July through September period is typically the weakest time of year for the market.  So we may see a correction during

this time period.  But we won’t know until it occurs.   Therefore, every investor needs to have their stop LIMIT orders or trailing stops in place to protect principal.

Have a great July 4th weekend.

 

Jun 28

Market Review COMP June 27 2014

This past week the stock market meandered without much change.  Both the S&P 500 and DJIA declined slightly while the NASDAQ Composite closed on a yearly high just shy of 4400.  Even with some negative economic news and tensions rising in the Middle East, the market was able to handle the news without a sell-off.

For the week, the DJIA had the worst performance  of the three averages for the second consecutive week and fell 0.56%,  followed by the S&P 500 losing only 0.10%. The NASDAQ Composite had good performance gaining 0.68%.  New NYSE 52-week highs totaled 556 down slightly from  574 the prior week.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 5.30%, the S&P 500 is up 6.09%, and the DJIA is up only 1.66%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.71% this year, and is 100% invested.

Gold (GLD), gold mining issues (GDX) and bonds all  advanced during the week.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No Changes NASI June 27 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY on April 22nd . (Refer to first chart).  Note the two blue arrows indicating the breakthrough new high and the flattening MACD line.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest June 25th bullish percentage reading was 37.2% which was much lower than the June 18th bullish percentage reading of 35.2%. Investors are slightly less  bullish going out six-months into the future, as they may be getting concerned about the market’s continued advance without a meaningful correction.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY signal as of April 28. (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two potential downward crossover areas if the market falls next week.)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard Remains on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-June 27 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.71 % compared an average gain of 4.35% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

All  ETFs ( IYT, XLB, VGT and XLV) are performing well,except for EPI which is the weakest performer   You should note that 4 of the 5 the Top 5 ETFs also have a “fail” rating with a negative reading in their MACD column. EPI held its #1 position, but is rapidly losing steam and has the worst performance over the past four weeks among all ETFs tracked. Also, VGT is nearing a potential sell signal if it falls below rank 20 on any daily close.

See table showing the results of the Top 5: Top 5 ETF Tracking June 27, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now only 17 out of 42 compared to 28 in the prior week.  This decrease is worrisome as many ETFs are showing MACD sell signals.

Remember that none of the ETFs selected will be sold unless there is a Dashboard SELL signal or any of them drop below rank 20 on a daily basis or they fall below their stop LIMIT order whichever scenario occurs first.

Conclusion – Market Advance Stalls

The market’s overall trend remains upward, but internals are weakening. The BDH strategy is still in a “BUY” mode. Make sure to use stop limit orders to protect your principal.

Jun 21

Market Review COMP June 20 2014

This past week the stock market had a nice smooth advance higher with the S&P 500 and DJIA averages making new highs for the year. The NASDAQ is approaching its March 2014 high (refer to circles on the first chart0 and is only a few points away from breaking to new highs. For the week, the DJIA had the worst performance  again, but gained 1.02% followed by the S&P 500 gaining 1.38%. The NASDAQ Composite had good performance gaining 1.33%.  New NYSE 52-week highs totaled 574 matching that of the week of June 6 and the highest in months.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 4.58%, the S&P 500 is up 6.20%, and the DJIA is up only 2.23%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 6.46% this year, and is 100% invested.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX)  had a spectacular week advancing smartly and closing the week near its highs. Bonds had a choppy week without much change. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No Changes NASI June 20 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY on April 22nd . (Refer to first chart). The MACD is starting to flatten.  Be on the lookout for a possible downward crossover on this indicator this week if the market moves lower.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest June 18th bullish percentage reading was 35.2% which was much lower than the June 11th bullish percentage reading of 44.7%. Investors are now much less  bullish going out six-months into the future, as they may be getting concerned about the market’s continued advance without a meaningful correction.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY signal as of April 28. (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two crossover areas.)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-June 20 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 6.46 % compared an average gain of 4.34% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

All  ETFs (EPI, IYT, XLB, VGT and XLV) are performing well,except for EPI which lost ground last week.   You should note that 3 of the 5 the Top 5 ETFs also have a “fail” rating with a negative reading in their MACD column. EPI held its #1 position, but is rapidly losing steam and has the worst performance over the past four weeks among all ETFs tracked. IYT, XLV and VGT also dropped a few positions in the table.

See table showing the results of the Top 5: Top 5 ETF Tracking June 20, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now at 28out of 42 compared to 19 in the prior week.  This increase is not surprising in light of the market’s upwared bias last week.

Remember that none of the ETFs selected will be sold unless there is a Dashboard SELL signal or any of them drop below rank 20 on a daily basis or they fall below their stop LIMIT order whichever scenario occurs first.

Conclusion – Market Advance Continues

The market’s overall trend remains upward, and internals are strengthening. The BDH strategy is still in a “BUY” mode. The Fed’s positive comments had a positive impact on the market.  Make sure to use stop limit orders to protect your principal.

Jun 15

Market Review COMP June 13, 2014

This past week the stock market had a slight downward bias with international and political news taking the forefront. For the week, the DJIA had the worst performance  losing 0.88% followed by the S&P 500 losing 0.68%. The NASDAQ Composite had the best relative performance losing only 0.25%.  Many technology, momentum and social media stocks again experienced high volatility.  This was accompanied by big movers in energy and gold issues.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 3.21%, the S&P 500 is up 4.75%, and the DJIA is up only 1.20%. In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 5.61% this year, and is 100% invested.

Gold (GLD) had s solid week advancing smartly and closing the week on its highs. Bonds had a mixed week. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review –No Changes NASI June 13, 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator is on a BUY signal and well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY on April 22nd . (Refer to first chart). The MACD is starting to turn down but a crossover has not yet occurred.  Be on the lookout for a possible signal change onthis indicator this week if the market moves lower.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest June 11th bullish percentage reading was 44.7% which was higher than the June 4th bullish percentage reading of 39.5%. Investors are now more bullish going out six-months into the future.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY signal as of April 28. (Refer to the second chart and the arrows indicating the two crossover areas.)

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893
Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-June 13 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 5.61 % compared an average gain of 3.05% for the three major averages.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

All five ETFs (EPI, IYT, XLB, VGT and XLV) are performing well, but 4 out 5 lost ground last week.   You should note that 4 of the 5 the Top 5 ETFs also have a “fail” rating with a negative reading in their MACD column. EPI held its #1 position, but all the other ETFs dropped a number of positions since the prior week.

See table showing the results of the Top 5: Top 5 ETF Tracking June 13, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that the number of ETFs with a “pass” rating is now at 19 out of 42 compared to 27 in the prior week.  This decline is not surprising in light of the market’s slight downward bias last week.

Remember that none of the ETFs selected will be sold unless there is a Dashboard SELL signal or any of them drop below rank 20 on a daily basis or they fall below their stop LIMIT order whichever scenario occurs first.

Conclusion – Market Stalls Here

The market’s overall trend remains upward, but internals are weakening. The BDH strategy is still in a “BUY” mode. We will see what develops next week with the Fed’s Wednesday meeting announcement.  Make sure to use stop limit orders to protect your principal

HAPPY FATHER’S DAY TO ALL