Blog

Jan 15

COMP january 15 2015With the NASDAQ Composite falling below its 100-dma on the close, the Dashboard has declined to “0” from 1 and now it is at its maximum level.  See blue arrow on upper right side of chart.  I will provide a full report this weekend.

 

Jan 11

Market Review COMP January 9 2015

The stock market went on wild ride last week, as triple digit changes in the DJIA were common place.  The market slumped on Friday, January 2 and continued its slide through Tuesday, rallying big time on Wednesday and Thursday, and then giving some back on Friday.  All-in-all it was a volatile week with oil make a new 6-year low.

On Wednesday the NASDAQ composite penetrated its 100-dma (green line on first chart) intra-day but was able to close above it.  This also occurred with other major averages.  All these averages are near or barely above their 50-dma.

Bonds rallied again and ended the week at their highest weekly  levels since the October 15th price peak. Gold and gold miners surged higher.    In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance.

Indicator #6 issued a SELL signal after both the Index and MACD had negative crossovers this week on January 7 and 6, respectively.  This reversed the most recent BUY signal on this indicator.  This resulted in a Dashboard “1” SELL signal from its prior NEUTRAL signal.

For the year 2015 so far, the NASDAQ Composite is down 0.68%, the S&P 500 is down 0.68%, and the DJIA is down 0.48%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio is in cash.  The market internals deteriorated last week with 413 new highs compared to 413 the week before, but the number of new lows increased to 202 from 86.

Indicator Review – One Change

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).  So far that moving average is acting as support as it was penetrated intra-day this week but bounced off of it to the upside (see  the blue arrow in the upper part of the first chart.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a MACD SELL signal on January 2, 2015 cancelling the BUY signal on December 22 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest January 7Bullish percentage reading was 41.0.% which was a big decline  from the December 31st bullish percentage reading of 51.7%.  Investors are now much less bullish on the market projecting out six months. Dropping below the critical 50% level results in another confirming SELL signal on the indicator.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a negative crossover on January 6 with  its 5-day EMA and the MACD experienced a SELL signal on January 7th.  Thus this indicator is now on a SELL signal

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 Jan 9, 2015_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015 the BDH portfolio is in 5th place as the portfolio is 100% in cash and a few other strategies have done better so far.  Check the Strategies tab to see the performance and charts going back a few  years.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio remains 100%in cash awaiting the next BUY signal. The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 7 ETFs with a “pass” rating compared to 16 the prior week. The small number of ETFs passing the buy test is another indication that the market is being powered ahead by only a small group of strong stocks in specific sectors such as technology and biotech.  Again,  it is interesting to note that with the market near its highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that many stocks and ETFs are not participating fully in this latest rally.

If you look at the Decision page you will note that TLT (30 year treasury ETF) and UUP (Dollar Bull) are among the top 5.  This is a very rare occurrence and these ETFs are more defensive in nature indicating a bifurcated market.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — sector ETFs.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Remain Safely In Cash

The market when bonkers last week.  If the averages break below and remain below their 50-dmas next week expect a further decline ahead.  If not, then we will be testing the new highs again soon.  The Dashboard will signal when to get back in the market.  In the meantime relax and enjoy life.

I will post a detailed 2014 year-end review next week.  Sorry for the delay.

etf.com Inside ETFs Conference 2015

This year this high-powered conference on ETFs will be held in same place as the last few years at the Westin Diplomat Hotel in Hollywood, FL.  For those of you who are a active investors or traders, and especially those who live in Florida,  this conference provides the most comprehensive venue for ETF  knowledge available in conference format.  With all the major vendors present in the Exhibit Hall, major market players, over 1500 attendees and the high-quality roster of speakers including  Jeffrey Gundlach, Brad Katsuyama, Winklevoss twins, Terry Bradshaw, Ric Edelman and others this conference has a lot to offer.  I will be attending.  Go to www.etf.com for registration information.

 

Jan 04

Market Review comp January 2 2015

The stock market started the week on the downside followed by a much larger decline on Wednesday before New Year’s holiday.  On Friday morning the market was down even more, but managed to stabilize for a mostly flat week.  There were no new record highs on the three major averages this past week, but the market had another good year after a blockbuster 2013.   The market has been in an uptrend since the lows of the last bear market ending on March 9, 2009.

Bond prices rallied ending the week at their highest levels since the October 15th price peak. Gold was lower while gold miners were higher.    In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ’s MACD experienced a negative crosss-over on Friday, resulting in a SELL signal on Indicator #5.  Simultaneously, the MACD on Indicator #8 (see second chart) had a positive crossover on the same day (confirming the earlier cross-over on the Index and its 5 day-ema)  resulting in a BUY signal on that indicator. Thus,the Dashboard remains unchanged on its “2” Neutral signal.

For the year 2014 (ending on Wednesday), the NASDAQ Composite was up 13.4%, the S&P 500 was up 11.4%, and the DJIA was up 7.5%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio was up 13.63%.  The market internals deteriorated last week with 413 new highs compared to 478 the week before, and the number of new lows increased slightly to 86 from 72.

Indicator Review – Two ChangesNASI Jan 2 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).  So far that moving average is acting as support.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator had a MACD SELL signal on January 2, 2015 cancelling the BUY signal on December 22 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 31st  Bullish percentage reading was 51.7.% which was a slight increase from the December 24th bullish percentage reading of 50.97%.  Investors are still very bullish on the market projecting out six months.  Currently, this indicator is on two confirming SELL signals in the past few weeks.  Also, a drop below 50% in any subsequent week would result in a third confirming SELL signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator’s  Index experienced a positive crossover on December 23 with  its 5-day EMA and MACD experienced a miniscule SELL signal on Decmber 31 that was confirmed by a definitive signal on Janury 2, 2015.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Remains on “2” Neutral Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 Jan 2, 2015_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For the full year the BDH portfolio was up 13.63 % compared an average gain of 10.77% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance (even after being out the market since the December 8 SELL signal) compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes. 

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio remains 100%in cash awaiting the next BUY signal. The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 16 ETFs with a “pass” rating compared to 17 the prior week. The small number of ETFs passing the buy test is another indication that the market is being powering ahead by only a small group of strong stocks in specific sectors such as technology and biotech.  Again,  it is interesting to note that with the market near its highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that many stocks and ETFs are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Remain Safely In Cash

The market stalled last week with no new yearly highs. Notice the blue horizontal resistance line on the first chart. This could turn out to be a double top formation unless the NASDAQ Composite takes out this level soon.  Otherwise, be prepared for a potential market decline to follow in January.

I will be providing a more detailed review of 2014 in an interim blog this week or as part of next weekend’s blog depending upon my schedule.  In the meantime, relax and enjoy the New Year.

 

Dec 27

Note: Three followers of this website were kind enough to send me the December 6th blog post that I unintentionally wrote over.  I have reposted it for everyone’s benefit.

Market Review COMP December 26,2014

With strong seasonal patterns and other factors, the market marched to new highs this shortened holiday week.  Both the DJIA and S&P500 closed at all time highs, while the NASDAQ Composite was 4 points away from its late November yearly high, but still 278 points away from its high in 2000.

Bond prices ended the week lower with a similar move in gold and gold miners.    In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ’s MACD experienced a positive crosssover on December 22, resulting in a BUY signal on Indicator #5.  Thus the Dashboard is now on a “2” Neutral signal.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 15.1%, the S&P 500 is up 13.0%, and the DJIA is up 8.9%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 13.63%.  Te market internals improved last week with 478 new highs compared to 319 the week before, and the number of new lows decreased to 72.

Indicator Review – One Change NASI December 26, 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).  Also, you can see in this chart how close it came to touching the 100-dma.  So far that moving average is acting as support.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a MACD BUY signal on December 22 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 24 Bullish percentage reading was 50.9.% which was a huge increase from the December 17th bullish percentage reading of 38.7%.  Investors are now much more bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This indicator is on two confirming SELL signals in the past few weeks.  Also, a drop below this week level in any subsequent week would result in a third confirming SELL signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is barely holding on to its SELL signal as the Index experienced a miniscule  positive crossover on December 23 withe  its 5-day EMA and MACD  is getting close to a positive crossover.  A continued market advance will result in a MACD crossover and a BUY signal on this indicator as well as resulting in a Dashboard “3” BUY signal.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard  Now on “2” Neutral Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 Dec 26, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 13.63 % compared an average gain of 12.33% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance (even after being out the market since the December 8 SELL signal) compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes. 

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio remains 100%in cash awaiting the next BUY signal. The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 17 ETFs with a “pass” rating compared to 6 the prior week. The small number of ETFs passing the buy test is another indication that the market is being powering ahead by only a small group of strong stocks in specific sectors such as technology and biotech.  Again,  it is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that many stocks and ETFs are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Remain Safely In Cash

The market experienced a further advance last week with fresh 2014 highs on two out of the three major averages. Watch Indicator#8 for a BUY signal which would trigger a Dashboard BUY signal.

Have a Happy and Prosperous New Year!

Dec 20

Market Review — Holy Cow!!COMP December 19 2014

This is the wildest market that I’ve seen in a long time with violent moves in both directions since the mid-September 2014 initial highs. almost 10% drop to the lows on October 15th to the near 2014 highs this past week. If the market performs strongly next week, then we will probably see another Dashboard BUY signal.

The DJIA had a couple of big days with moves of over 300 and 400 points, while the NASDAQ Composite gained over 100 points two days this week.  And the S&P 500 had moves of over 40 points.  We haven’t seen a week like this in many months.

Bonds had a volatile week closing lower paralleling the move in gold and gold miners..  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ decisively bounced off its 100-dma (green line) and is nearing its highs for the year seen just a few weeks ago.  The MACD line is curling upward and a positive crossover this week if the market moves higher.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 14.1%, the S&P 500 is up 12.0%, and the DJIA is up 7.4%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 13.63%.  Believe it or not the market internals appear to be showing a stalling condition with minimal new highs and increasing new lows for the past few weeks, even though we are near the highs for the year. Last week the number of new highs was 319 compared to 561 new lows. This situation is abnormal and the end result could be a further decline to come — but no one can predict the timing of this potential reversal.

Indicator Review – No ChangesNASI Dec 19 2014

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).  Also, you can see in this chart how close it came to touching the 100-dma.  So far that moving average is acting as support.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a MACD SELL signal on December 2 with additional deterioration since then. (Refer to first chart).  However the MACD is curling up and further market advances will turn this indicator positive again.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 17 Bullish percentage reading was 38.7.% which much lower  than the December 10th bullish percentage reading of 45.0%.  Investors are now a less bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This indicator is on two confirming SELL signals in the past few weeks.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a SELL signal as both the Index and its 5-day EMA and MACD lines had negative crossovers.  However, the Index is close to crossing above its 5 day-ema while the MACD is not showing the same signs.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard  Remains on “1”   SELL

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 Dec 19, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 13.63 % compared an average gain of 11.17% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance (even after being out the market last week) compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes.  The strategy ranked third contains a NASDAQ bull leveraged ETF.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio remains 100%in cash awaiting the next BUY signal. The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 6 ETFs with a “pass” rating which was the same as the prior week. This major   deterioration in the number of ETFs passing the buy test is another excellent indication that the market is being powering ahead by only a small group of strong stocks.  Again,  it is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that many stocks and ETFs are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Remain Safely In Cash

The market experienced a powerful advance last week. We will see whether it can take out the previous 2014 highs.   We’ll watch for the next BUY signal.

Enjoy your holidays.  Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christmas to all!!

Dec 12

Market Review COMP Dec 12 2014

This blog is being written about 1 pm on Friday afternoon instead of this weekend as I will unavailable to write it at that time.  Next week’s blog will be posted during the December 20 weekend.

The market is having a rough week with high volatility and big moves in both directions, but mostly down.  As of mid-day today two major averages are down 2% each for the week, but the DJIA is down a big 3.13%.  So this may be the beginning of larger correction.  Oil is get slaughtered and gold started the week strong but ended on a weak note.

Bonds were the star performers either at or above yearly highs.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ is turning over with the MACD lines continuing to drop.  On Monday, Indicator#8 issued a SELL signal thus placing the Dashboard at a “1” SELL reading as reported in Monday’s interim blog.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 12.44%, the S&P 500 is up 10.21%, and the DJIA is up 5.21%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 13.63%.   The market internals appear to be showing a stalling condition with minimal new highs and increasing new lows for the past few weeks.

Indicator Review – One Change

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a MACD SELL signal on December 2 with additional deterioration since then. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 10 Bullish percentage reading was 45.0.% which slightly higher  than the December 3rd  bullish percentage reading of 42.7%.  Investors are now a bit more bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This indicator is on two confirming SELL signals in the past few weeks.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a SELL signal as both the Index and its 5-day EMA and MACD lines had negative crossovers.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “1”   SELL

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 Dec 12, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 13.63 % compared an average gain of 9.29% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes.  The strategy ranked third contains a NASDAQ bull leveraged ETF.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% In Cash

The portfolio is now 100%in cash awaiting the next BUY signal.  The Top 5 table (link below) shows that the portfolio produced a gain of 5.94% for the latest BUY signal in comparison to the 5.82% performance of the averages.  So it made up some lost ground and surpassed the averages when the SELL signal triggered,

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking December 12, 2014

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 6 ETFs with a “pass” rating a decrease from 11 the prior week, a drop of almost 50%.  This deterioration is another indication that the market is in the process of rolling over.    It is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that some market sectors are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Conclusion  — Remain Safely In Cash

The market is experiencing a downtrend right now.  We’ll watch for the next BUY signal.

Have a productive week!!

I

 

Dec 08

Market Situation NASI Dec 8 2014

As mentioned in the weekend blog, a SELL signal was near on Indicator #8.  A definitive crossover of the Index by the moving average in conjunction with the prior MACD crossover on the bottom of the chart resulted in this Indicator giving a SELL signal at the close today (see chart on the right).

This resulted in a Dashboard “1” SELL signal.  All five ETFs in the portfolio will be sold at the open tomorrow and the portfolio will remain in cash until the next BUY signal occurs.  A full report will be provided at the end of the week.

 

Dec 06

Market Review COMP Dec 5 2014

After a tumble on Monday the market firmed up a bit the rest of the week as the DJIA and S&P 500 hit all-time highs.  The NASDAQ Composite was the laggard, ending the week with a minimal loss of  0.23%.  The DJIA was the leader up 0.73% followed by the S&P 500 up 0.03%.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ was unable to close at new yearly highs this past week trying to claw its way back after its Monday decline.  Note the MACD negative crossover on Tuesday which resulted in a SELL signal on Indicator #5 (see blue arrow).

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 14.47%, the S&P 500 is up 12.28%, and the DJIA is up 8.34%.  In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 14.68%.  Last week the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE decreased slightly to 455 compared to 477 the prior week. However, there was a large increase in the number of stocks with 52-week lows which totaled 326ompared to 194 the week before.  The market internals appear to be showing a stalling condition with minimal new highs and increasing new lows.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) fell in a volatile week and now a downtrend may be in progress again. Bonds had a mixed week ending a bit lower.In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review – One Change

Indicator #5  had a SELL signal and Indicator #8 is very close to a SELL signal.  So be on the lookout for any market deterioration next week.

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator had a MACD SELL signal on December 2 with additional deterioration the remainder of the week (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest December 3 Bullish percentage reading was 42.7.% which was much lower than the November 26th  bullish percentage reading of 52.1%.  Investors are now much less bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This week’s reading resulted in a second confirming SELL signal joining the one from a few weeks prior.  Multiple consecutive SELL signals indicates the precarious nature of this market as investors are now unsure of what to make of each week’s market action.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is still on a BUY  signal. During the week on Tuesday the MACD crossed below its trigger line while the Index also had a miniscule negative crossover.  Then the index reversed that signal to an upward crossover on Friday.  So ending the week this Indicator is NOT on a SELL signal at the moment, but continued deterioration in the NASDAQ index next week would reverse that situation.  Note the blue arrows on the nearby chart showing the up and down crossing of the index during the week.

As you know from previous blog posts I wait for a DEFINITIVE crossover of  the MACD and the indexes before generating a BUY or SELL signal on that Indicator.  That was the case here as well. My hesitation on taking miniscule crossovers is to avert the situation that occurred here — whipsawing back and forth with no clear cut result — to avoid being shaken out of the market on noise.

If I had issued a Dashboard “3”SELL signal on Tuesday that would have been premature as the Dashboard closed the week on a Dashboard “2” HOLD signal.  So patience paid off here.  The portfolio is still 100% invested rather than being in cash as a result of that potential SELL signal.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “2”   HOLDNASI Dec 5 2014

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 Dec 5, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 14.68 % compared an average gain of 11.70% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes.  The strategy ranked third contains a NASDAQ bull leveraged ETF.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of the 10/27 open. Since their purchase the Top 5 ETFs are up 7.00% compared to 7.08% for the major averages, as shown in the updated table link below. This ETF portfolio has improved again this past week and is only slightly below the performance of the market averages.  Note that one ETF is ‘fail’ rated compared to two the prior week.

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking December 5, 2014

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had only 11 ETFs with a “pass” rating a decrease from 20 the prior week, a drop of almost 50%.  This deterioration is another indication that the market maybe in the process of rolling over.    It is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that some market sectors are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Point-and-Figure Chart NYSE  Percent Above 50-dma Dec 5 2014

The number of NYSE stocks above their respective 50-dmas on chart on the right  advanced this week into a column of X’s after hitting a low of 62% earlier in the week.   Note that this indicator was Indicator #1 in the BDH book and explained on pages 107 and 108 of the original printing.

Conclusion  — Dashboard  SELL signal is Near

BDH indicator #5 is on a SELL signal and Indicator #8 can quickly revert to a SELL signal at any time. This would result in a Dashboard “1” SELL signal. So be ready to take action if this occurs next week.

I will post an interim blog only if Indicator #8 issues a SELL signal.

Make sure that you also monitor the chart above for the crossover signal.  We’ve had a great run so far, so taking profits here is not such a bad thing.  Interestingly the last few January’s have had negative returns, although December’s have been strong. We will see how this time period plays out going forward.

I

 

Nov 29

Market Review COMP November 28 2014

In this holiday shortened week, the market tanked about 45 minutes before the close on Friday as gold, gold miners and oil got slammed.  The DJIA lost over 100 points during this drop.  Nevertheless, the market still managed to advance for the week with the NASDAQ Composite leading the way up 1.64% compared to its lackluster performance in the prior week. The DJIA and S&P 500 were much weaker with gains of 0.10% and 0.20%, respectively.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ has broken out to new 2014 highs and its MACD indicator actually improved  (blue arrow at bottom of chart).    We were potentially expecting the MACD to have a negative crossover this past week, but instead it worked its way higher as the NASDAQ continued to solidly advance.

For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 14.73%, the S&P 500 is up 11.66%, and the DJIA is up 7.55% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 14.19%.  Last week the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE increased slightly to 477 compared to 458 the prior week. There was an increase in the number of stocks with 52-week lows which totaled 194 compared to 122 the week before.  The market internals appear to be showing a stalling condition with minimal new highs and increasing new lows.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) got crushed this week and the potential uptrend mentioned last week has not disappeared .  Bonds had a strong rally as gold fell.  and oil faltered badly hitting four year price lows.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review – No Changes NASI November 28 2014

Although there are no Indicator changes this week, both Indicators # 5 and 8, respectively are close to levels where they could reverse lower.  So be on the lookout for any market deterioration next week.

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator had a clear-cut MACD BUY signal on October 22. (Refer to first chart). Notice on the first chart that the MACD was able to move higher.  A downward crossover (blue arrow on bottom of chart) is possible next week.  If this occurs next week it will be  a SELL signal on this indicator.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest November 26th Bullish percentage reading was 52.1.% which was  higher than the November 19th  bullish percentage reading of 49.7%.  Investors are now more bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This week’s reading was again above the critical 50% level.  So if it drops below 50% in coming weeks it will be considered the second confirming SELL signal joining the one from last week.  This means that excessive bullishness has been reached which usually indicates that the market will reverse direction.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY  signal as an MACD crossover BUY signal occurred on October 23 while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on October 20. Note the two blue arrows on the nearby chart .  The top arrow shows that a crossover did not occur yet, but is very close to occurring.  However, the bottom arrow on the MACD indicator shows the slight downward crossover.  If the NASDAQ declines next week then this indicator will likely issue a SELL signal.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3”   BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 November 28, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 12.09 % compared an average gain of 10.64% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in third place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes tracked.  The strategy ranked second contains a leveraged ETF.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of 10/27 open. Since their purchase the Top 5 ETFs are up 6.50 compared to 6.76% for the major averages ,as shown in the updated table link below. This ETF portfolio has improved this past week and is only slightly below the performance of the market averages.  Note that two ETFs are rated ‘fail’ compared to four the previous week.

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking November 28, 2014

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had 20 ETFs with a “pass” rating an increase from about 18 the prior week.  The number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has remained stable the past three weeks.  It is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that some market sectors are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Point-and-Figure Chart NYSE Percentage of Stocks Above 50-dma.png Nov 28 2014

The number of NYSE stocks above their respective 50-dmas on chart on the right  declined this past week into a column of 0’s from its previous high of 71.4%.   This may be the beginning of change in market direction or just a slight pause. Note that this indicator was Indicator #1 in the BDH book and explained on pages 107 and 108 of the original printing.

Conclusion  — Dashboard  SELL signal is Still Near

Based on the powerful market move over the past four weeks this rally has surprised everyone by its speed and percentage increase.  Interestingly, two BDH indicators – number 5 and 8– are nearing a SELL signals. Last week the market had enough energy to forestall a SELL signal on both indicators.  But based on the quick end of day sell-off on Friday and the continuing price erosion in oil and energy related issues, the market may be entering another consolidation or profit taking cycle.

If the market declines next week  then these two indicators will issue a SELL signals which in turn would result in a Dashboard “1” SELL signal.  I will post an interim blog only when both indicators are on SELL signals.

Make sure that you also monitor the two charts above for those signals.  We’ve had a great run so far, so taking profits here is not such a bad thing.  Interestingly the last few January’s have had negative returns, although December’s have been strong. We will see how this time period plays out going forward.

Continue to enjoy your holiday weekend.

Nov 23

Market Review COMP Nov 21 2014

After resting for two weeks the stock market resumed its uptrend with all three major average making new 52-week highs and both the DJIA and S&P 500 closing at all-time highs by week’s end. Market volatility was subdued with no major news events. Although the NASDAQ Composite closed Friday at it highest closing  price since 2000, it had the weakest performance of the averages this past week.

Looking at the first chart we can see that NASDAQ has broken out to the upside (blue arrow at top of chart) on Friday, although closing below the opening day’s high .  All three averages have no recent resistance barriers to go higher and all past resistance lines now are labeled as support.  Going forward the next three days prior to Thanksgiving have been historically bullish for the market, and December has been the strongest month of the  year

This past week, the NASDAQ Composite was the worst performer up only 0.52%, followed by the S&P 500 Index up 1.16%, and lastly the DJIA up 0.99%.  For the year-to-date, the NASDAQ Composite is up 12.84%, the S&P 500 is up 11.64%, and the DJIA is up 7.44% In comparison, the BDH portfolio is up 12.09%.  In Barron’s (November 24 issue page 31), the performance of hedge funds year-to-date is quoted as under 3%, not a very good showing since the the typical hedge fund charges a 2% management fee and 20% of profits.

Last week the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE decreased again to 458  for the third consecutive  week compared to 458 the prior week. There was a slight increase in the number of stocks with 52-week lows which totaled 122 compared to 116 the week before.  Currently there is a negative divergence,  as the number of new highs is declining over the past three weekss while the market averages are rising.

Gold (GLD) and gold mining issues (GDX) rallied higher last week after bouncing off a multi-year bottom . Perhaps this is start of the uptrend. We’ll have to wait and see.  Bonds closed Friday little changed for the week.  In the chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

Indicator Review – No Changes NASI Nov 21 2014

Although there are no changes this week, there could be two SELL signals next week on Indicators # 5 and 8, respectively.  That would result in a Dashboard SELL signal of 1 of both indicators triggered. See comments below.

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a buy signal on October 23, as the 100-dma was pierced to the upside. (Refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACDThis indicator had a clear-cut MACD BUY signal on October 22. (Refer to first chart). Notice on the first chart that the MACD is near a downward crossover (blue arrow on bottom of chart).  If this occurs next week it will be  a SELL signal on this indicator.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest November 19th Bullish percentage reading was 49.7.% which was much lower than the November 12th  bullish percentage reading of 57.9%.  Investors are less bullish on the market projecting out six months.  This week’s  reading was below the critical 50% level,  therefore it is a CONFIRMING sell signal.  The last signal on September 5th was also a SELL signal.  This type of signal usually occurs when investors are extremely bullish and then back-off and usually occurs at market tops.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator is on a BUY  signal as an MACD crossover BUY signal occurred on October 23 while the Index crossed above its 5 day-ema on October 20. Note the two blue arrows on the nearby chart which are indicating a potential imminent downward crossover.  If this occurs this indicator will be on a SELL signal.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard on “3”   BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2 November 21, 2014_WC

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far, year-to-date the BDH portfolio is up 12.09 % compared an average gain of 10.64% for the three major averages.  You will note that under the Strategies tab of this website that the BDH portfolio is in second place for 2014 performance compared to all the other strategies tracked including the major indexes tracked.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of 10/27 open. Since their purchase the Top 5 ETFs are up 4.41% compared to 6.07% for the major averages ,as shown in the updated table link below. This ETF portfolio is not performing as strongly as the market so far.  EPI was sold on the Monday at the open and replaced by IYT.  Note that four ETFs are rated ‘fail’, and VNQ’s rank is not at 16  closing in in the 21 level  a sell point.

The current Top 5 data is presented here:  Top 5 ETF Tracking November 21, 2014

The Top 5 ETF listing table containing 52 ETFs had 18 ETFs with a “pass” rating an increase from about 23 the prior week.  The number of ETFs with a “pass” rating has remained stable the past three weeks.  It is interesting to note that with the market at new highs that more ETFs did not have a “pass” rating.  That indicates that some market sectors are not participating fully in this latest rally.

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best.  You can click on the down around in the  3 month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of international funds.

Point-and-Figure Chart NYSE  Percent Above 50-dma Nov 21 2014

The number of NYSE stocks above their respective 50-dmas on chart on the right  advanced to 71.08% from its extreme low reading of 16% on October 17.  There was a movement of another few boxes higher from the prior week. This is a phenomenal move in a four week period. Moreover, it is a very positive sign that could indicate that the recent lows for the 2014 have been seen.  Note that this indicator was Indicator #1 in the BDH book and explained on pages 107 and 108 of the original printing.

Conclusion  — Market SELL signal is Imminent

Based on the powerful market move over the past four weeks this rally has surprised everyone by its speed and percentage increase.  Interestingly, two BDH indicators – number 5 and 8– are nearing a SELL signal downward crossover.  If the market stalls or declines next week these signals may occur.  If both indicators change to SELL signals I will send out an interim blog.  Make sure that you also monitor the two charts above for those signals.  We’ve had a great run so far, so taking profits here is not such a bad thing.  Interestingly the last few January’s have had negative returns, although December’s have been strong.  A continued market advance will postpone any sell signals.

Have a terrific Thanksgiving holiday.