Blog

Nov 12

Interim Update

The market’s pummeling this week resulted in Indicators #5 and #8 issuing sell signals.  The Dashboard is now on a NEUTRAL signal. Make sure your stops are in place.

A report will be provided this week in the normal blog.

Nov 07

This week  will be another bi-weekly shortened blog, as not much has changed since last blog report

Market Review–The BDH strategy remains on a “4” BUY reading.  COMP November 6 2015

The market started the week with a bang, advanced on Tuesday, fell on Wednesday and Thursday, and ended the week with a mixed day on Friday.  Nevertheless, gains in all three major averages occurred with the NASDAQ Composite leading the way up 1.85%, followed by the DJIA up 1.40%, and the S&P 500 up 0.95%.  As the chart shows, the NASDAQ has pierced the upper blue horizontal resistance line that now change to a support line.  This index (5147.12) is now approaching the former highs in late July at 5231.94.  This is quite a comeback of the lows on August 24th and late September.

Gold and gold miners prices plunged to lows for the year, and bonds also fell to their lows of mid-September, and oil declined the last four days of last week.

Year-to-date, the BDH strategy is down 1.19% compared to the  DJIA up 0.49%, the S&P 500 up 1.96%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 8.68%.  The new 52-week highs were a meager 253 compared to  202 the prior week and the number of new lows improved to 157 from 198 the prior week.

The Top 5 ETF portfolio contains five ETFs:  XLP (rank 5), VNQ (9), and XHB (6) which continue to have fail ratings due to a negative MACD crossover.  However, XLY (1) and QQQ (2) continue to perform well. Make sure that your personal trailing stops are in place to minimize any potential losses in case the market has another leg down which is not expected this time of year.

 

 

Oct 31

This week is the bi-weekly shortened blog.COMP October 30 2015

Market Review

Except for the nice bounce on Wednesday after the Fed’s pronouncement on interest rates, the market averages were mostly down on the other days.   For the week the averages were up between 0.20% to 0.43%, a minimal showing. Right now the averages are in a trading range between a support and resistance line as shown in the accompanying chart.

The market advance of over 8% in October has been the best in four years, and proves the point that this month continues to be a “Bear Killer” with its powerful rebound.  Gold, miners, and bonds all fell, but oil managed a small advance.

Year-to-date, the BDH strategy is down 0.98% compared to the  DJIA up 0.90%, the S&P 500 up 0.99%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 6.71%.  The new 52-week highs were a meager 202 vs. 198 new lows, both anemic numbers in a market near its highs for the year.

The Top 5 ETF portfolio contains five ETFs that are all numbered 1 through 5, but XLP, VNQ, and XHB all have fail ratings due to a negative MACD crossover.   Make sure that your personal trailing stops are in place to minimize any potential losses in case the market has another leg down which is not expected this time of year.

The BDH strategy remains on a “4” BUY reading.  But after the strong advance over the past 16 trading days a down week would not be unexpected. NASI Oct 30 2015  Note that on the accompanying chart (Indicator #8) that the indicators are turning over (see circled areas) and may experience a downward crossover next week.  If that occurs the Dashboard will recede to a “3” BUY signal.

Have a happy and sweet Halloween!

 

Oct 24

Market Review COMP October 23 2015

The market had another great week with powerful gains by the indexes, notably the NASDAQ which benefited from price performance of Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet (new name for Google).  After trending water Monday through Wednesday, the market vaulted much higher with a real big gain on Friday (see accompanying NASDAQ chart).  This big gap up (see blue circle on the chart)  held for the day with the other two major averages experiencing the same event.

In one fell swoop on Friday, the NASDAQ Composite Index jumped beyond both its 100-dma and 200-dmas.Even the 5000 resistance level was exceeded which is now considered a near term support level.  Accordingly, Indicator #2 issued a BUY signal resulting in a Dashboard “4” BUY signal.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2.07%, the DJIA gained 2.50%, and the NASDAQ Composite gained the most at 2.97%.  The latter index is not far away from its 2015 high near 5225 (see first chart).  The DJIA and S&P 500 cleared the 100- and 200-dmas by Friday’s close.  Only the Russell 2000 Small Cap is lagging not yet rising above either of those two moving averages.

The number of new NYSE 52-week lows was 136 compared to 228 new highs.

Also, note that 68.1% of all NYSE stocks are above their respective 50-dmas compared to 14.5% in late September, and 36.6% are above their 200-dmas at week’s end compared to 17.5% in late September.   Thus, the market has made great progress off its August 24 and late September lows.

Bond prices sank as stock prices soared, oil (USO) fell  9%Gold (GLD) prices fell but  gold miners (GDX) ended the week a little higher.

In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –NASI October 23 2015One Change 

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on October 23(refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD BUY signal on October 5 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest October 21 Bullish Percentage reading was 34.8%  compared to 34.1% two weeks ago.  So investors are slightly more bullish going out over six months. This indicator still remains still on a May 27 BUY signal. 

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a BUY signal on October 8 as the MACD experienced a positive crossover.  This confirmed the earlier EMA crossover on October 5.  (Refer to second chart.)

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “4” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-October 23, 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is  down 0.67% compared to the DJIA down 0.99% for the year, followed by the S&P 500 up 0.79%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 6.25%.  Thus, the only index performing better than average is the latter.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of the open on October 9. The current ETFs held are XLY, XLP, XHB, QQQ, VNQ.The ETFscreen table containing 52 ETFs had 21 “pass” ratings.

Here is the spreadsheet:

Top-5-ETF-Tracking-October 23-2015

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of the fixed income.

Conclusion  — Market Rockets Higher

The market continues to make a solid comeback since October 1 and looks strong going forward after successfully exceeding its 200-dma on a gap opening on Friday.  The short-term trend is up, but the market’s big move over the past twelve trading sessions may be over for now as the market may consolidate or give back some of the gains this coming week.  If it instead works its way higher again, then that would be a very positive sign going forward.    Make sure to have trailing stop LIMIT orders in place.  I will be using 5% trailing stop LIMITs for the BDH portfolio, but every investor needs to select their own stop numbers based on his/her risk tolerance.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Oct 18

This week is the shortened blog posting.

COMP October 16 2015The stock market started the week on the defensive with a decline into Wednesday, then had a big up day on Thursday with a small follow through on Friday.  For the week the major averages were up around 1%.  As you can see on the chart the NASDAQ Composite is approaching two critical moving averages as shown in the blue circle on the right of the chart.

The index is only 23 points away from the critical 200-dma, and 57 points away from the 100-dma (Indicator #2).   Taking out both those levels will indicate that the market is probably headed higher into year-end.

The BDH strategy is down 2.68% for 2015 compared to a loss of 3.41% for the DJIA, a loss of 1.25% for the S&P 500, and a gain of 3.18% for the NASDAQ Composite. Last week there were 131  52-week NYSE highs and 74 new lows.  The etfscreen Decision Page had 18 ETFs with a “pass” rating compared to 12 the prior week.  Four of the five Top 5 ETFs in the portfolio had pass ratings, but XHB did not.

A full report will be provided next weekend.   Have a good week!

Oct 11

Market Review COMP October 9 2015

The market had a great week with gains exceeding 3% for the averages except for the NASDAQ which did not do as well. This has been one of the best performing market weeks in months.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.26%, the DJIA gained 3.72%, and the NASDAQ Composite gained the least at 2.61%.  The latter index is now just 126 points away from its 100-dma (see first chart).

As of last week, both the S&P 500 and DJIA are above their 50-dmas, but the NASDAQ is not.  However, it is only five points away from that level.  The number of new lows decreased to 53 from much higher readings the past three weeks. Therefore, the market has made a nice recovery from its August 24 intra-day lows. Also, note that 64.57% of all NYSE stocks are above their respective 50-dmas compared to 20.6% about 2.5 weeks ago, and 31.01% are above their 200-dmas at week’s end compared to 20% a few weeks ago.   Thus, the market has made great progress off the August 24 lows.

Bond prices sank as stock prices soared, oil (USO) had a blockbuster week up about 9%. Gold (GLD) prices rallied and  gold miners (GDX) ended the week much higher as well.

In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –Two Changes Since October 5 NASI October 9 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its SELL signal of August 19 (refer to first chart).  However, the index is only 126 points away from its 100-dma.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD BUY signal on October 5 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest October 7Bullish Percentage reading jumped tp 37.5% from 28.1% two weeks ago.  So investors are now much more bullish going out over six months. This indicator still remains still on a May 27 BUY signal. 

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a BUY signal on October 8 as the MACD experienced a positive crossover.  This confirmed the earlier EMA crossover on October 5.  Refer to second chart.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Reamins on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-October 9, 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 10th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site with a year-to-date loss of 3.11%. So far the DJIA is down 4.14% for the year, followed by the S&P 500 down 2.14%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 1.99%.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of the open on October 9.  Here is the spreadsheet:

Top-5-ETF-Tracking-October 9-2015

The current ETFs held are XLY, XLP, XHB, QQQ, VNQ.

In the future when the market corrects and then a Dashboard BUY signal is given, the Top 5 ETFs (not fixed income, currency or inverse ETFs) will be bought if they have a “pass” rating.  Additonally, if five ETFs do not meet that criteria, but they have a positive MACD reading then they will be bought as well until five ETFs have been selected. The logic is that after a correction some of the Top ranked ETFs may still be below their 100-dma and their one month return may still be negative.  Waiting for them to attain those targets may take too long to get a good entry point.  Buying early is the most logical approach in that circumstance.

The ETFscreen table containing 52 ETFs had 12 “pass” ratings.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of the fixed income.

Conclusion  — Market Trending Higher

The market continues to make a solid comeback since October 1 and has not retested its August 24 (S&P 500 has done this though). The short term trend is up, but the market’s big move over the past seven trading sessions may be over for now as the market may consolidate or give back some of the gains this coming week.  If it instead powers higher, then that is a very positive sign going forward.  If the 200-dma is then taken out, then the market will be on its way to test the prior highs for the year.  Make sure to have stop LIMIT orders in.  I will be using 5% stop LIMITs for the BDH portfolio, but every investor needs to select their own stop numbers based on his/her risk tolerance.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Oct 08

NASI October 8 2015Today, Indicator #8 had a MACD positive crossover confirming the recent ema crossover.  This change resulted in a  Dashboard BUY signal today.  Accordingly, 5 ETFs will be purchased on the open on Friday morning as follows:

XLY (ranked 4) Pass, XLP(6) Pass, XHB (9) fail, QQQ(11) fail, and VNQ (14) pass

Note that XHB and QQQ had a positive MACD reading, but not a pass rating.  Because of the correction both these ETFs do not have  positive readings in the other two columns on the Decision Table.  Also, the currency ETF, fixed income ETF and Utility ETF were not selected even though they pass ratings as they will fade as the equity market advances.

A full report will be provided this weekend.  Remember that you are responsible for your own investment choices, stop limit orders and management.  You can make different ETF selections as you see fit.

Oct 05

COMP October 5 2015

Interim Report

The stock market rally from last Friday continued with gusto today.  This resulted in a BUY signal on Indicator #5 as the MACD experienced a positive crossover.  Thus the Dashboard changed from a “1” SELL from last Friday to “2” Neutral  today.

Oct 03

This week we provide and abbreviated report as is the case every other week.

Market Review COMP October 2 2015

The market had a rough start to the week with 2 to 3% losses on Monday.  However, two big rally days on Wednesday and Friday resulted in gains for the week.  The S&P 500 gained 1.04%, the DJIA gained 0.97%, and the NASDAQ Composite gained the least at 0.45%.  Indicator #8 experienced a SELL signal on Friday resulting in a  Dashboard “1” SELL reading.  Note that for the 3rd quarter the major averages lost about 7%.

The number of new NYSE 52-week lows this past week mushroomed to 795 compared to 453 last week.  However, the positive tone by week’s end may indicate that the market may have based (see circled area near the blue support line in first chart) and is headed higher.  The S&P 500 Index almost reached its August 24 lows which could be considered a double bottom.  Just key enter $SPX in the top chart to see that situation.

Bond prices moved sharply higher while oil (USO) ended the week slighly higher. Gold (GLD) prices rallied a bit, but gold miners (GDX) surged higher, especially on Friday.

In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –One Change NASI October 2 2015

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a SELL signal on October 2 as there was a MACD crossover confirming the earlier in the week ema crossover. (See the accompanying chart)

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-October 2, 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 8th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site with a year-to-date loss of 3.14%. So far the DJIA is down 7.58% for the year, followed by the S&P 500 down 5.22%, and the NASDAQ Composite now down 0.60%.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Cash

The portfolio is 100% invested in cash awaiting MACD “pass”ratings on the top-ranked non-inverse and fixed income ETFs after BUY signal is given

The ETFscreen table containing 52 ETFs had 47 “fail” ratings

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

Conclusion  — Market Still In Correction Mode With Possible Bottom Made on August 24

The market continues to struggle overall, but it did manage to close the week with a solid gain.   A continued rally this week and a crossover of the 200-dma by the major averages would indicate that the lows were probably in for this correction.  Also, remember that the October is considered a bear killer month historically speaking, as the market has begun its ascent out of bear market lows in a number of past  years.  We’ll see if this is the case this time around.  So stay comfortably in cash, as the market tries to work its way out of its current correction.

Sep 26

Market Review COMP Septembe 25 2014

The market had a rough week with a lot of news domestically and overseas.  After the Fed meeting and the subsequent Yellon comments the market could not make up its mind and was highly volatile ending the week on a down note.

For the week, the S&P 500 lost 1.36%, the DJIA lost 0.43%, and the NASDAQ Composite lost the most at 2.92%, almost wiping out the entire gain of 2.96% the prior week.  The latter index is now 231 points away from its 200-dma (see first chart) at 4917.61, and another 64 point away from its higher 100-dma.  After hitting a near-term peak of 4968.07 seven days ago, this index has been heading south. And Indicator #5 experienced a MACD SELL signal lowering the Dashboard to a “2” Neutral reading.

Another negative sign is that all  three major averages are still below their respective 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.  This past week the biotechs and healthcare stocks got crushed this week falling more than any other sector. The number of new NYSE 52-week lows this past week was 453 , the most in two weeks.  The  number of new highs increased slightly to 53 from lower readings the past three weeks. Therefore, the market appears to have made a nice recovery from its August 24 intra-day lows, but has now given back almost half of that gain.   Also, note that only 20.52% of all NYSE stocks are above their respective 50-dmas, and only 21.24% are above their 200-dmas at week’s end.   These are still very low numbers as the market still has to make significant gains to get back to its intra-year July highs.

Bond prices were volatile closing mostly flat for the week, while oil (USO) ended the week lower. Gold (GLD) prices rallied but and gold miners (GDX) ended the week lower.

In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –One Change NASI September 25 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its SELL signal of August 19 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD SELL signal on September 25 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest September 23 Bullish Percentage reading was 32.1% little changed over the past four weeks. This indicator remains still on a May 27 BUY signal. 

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator remains on its recent early September BUY signal, but now the  Index is curling downward toward its  5 day-ema.  See circled area in nearby chart.  Also note that the MACD is starting to roll over as well.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Reamins on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-September 25, 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 7th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site with a year-to-date loss of 3.14%. So far the DJIA is down 8.46% for the year, followed by the S&P 500 down 6.20%, and the NASDAQ Composite now down 1.05%.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Cash

The portfolio is 100% invested in cash awaiting “pass”ratings on the top-ranked non-inverse and fixed income ETFs.

The ETFscreen table containing 52 ETFs had 49 “fail” ratings

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of the fixed income.

Conclusion  — Market Still In Correction Mode With Possible Bottom Made on August 24

The market continues to struggle with more down days this past week and continued volatility.  The trend this past week is down and the market could possibly test the August 25/25 lows before possibly rebounding in mid- to late-October.  Stay comfortably is cash as the market tries to work its way out of its decline.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.