This past week the stock market powered ahead again, but with more subdued gains, and the NASDAQ Composite was the weakest performer.
For the week, the DJIA gained 0.96%, the S&P 500 rose 0.69%, and the NASDAQ Composite was up only 0.12%. For the 2017 year-to-date, the DJIA gained 5.36%, compared to 5.74% for the S&P 500, and 8.59% for the NASDAQ and is still the current leader among these three indexes year-to-date. The BDH strategy advanced 4.37% for the year, and is currently 100% invested. All three major averages are well above their 50-, 100- and 200-dmas.
There were 449 new 52-week NYSE highs compared to 505 the prior week showing a slight deterioration with a rising market. Normally at bull market highs there are well over 700 new highs. The lack of more new highs shows that many stocks are not participating in the gains.
Interestingly, the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-dmas is at 69.91% compared to 83% on January 6, and this number has been declining for a few weeks. However, the percentage of stocks above their longer-term 200-dma has stayed steady at 75.69%. So, overall the market is holding on to its gains, although internally there are many under performing stocks.
Interestingly, bond and gold prices surged higher, and utilities (XLU) were the best performing group for the week up over 3.5%. Oil and gold miners moved lower. In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO and $BRENT for the other averages.
Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on November 7 which cancelled the SELL signal on November 2, 2016 (see first chart above).
Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD. This indicator issued a MACD BUY signal on January 25 (refer to first chart’s MACD indicator).
Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest February 22, 2017 Bullish Percentage reading was 38.5% up from 33.1% two weeks ago. This indicator remains on its long term buy signal with numerous confirmations along the way.
Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a BUY signal on February 15, 2017, as was reported in last weekend’s shortened blog post.
Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
Dashboard Remains on “4”BUY Signal
The last BDH BUY signal was generated on January 25, 2017 as Indicator #5 had a positive MACD crossover.
I have a software problem including the full Excel spreadsheet of the Dashboard, so I’m using WORD instead. If you need the complete worksheet since 2010 go to the January 2, 2017 blog and click on it there. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics
www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For the year-to-date 2017, BDH is up 2.73%. It is in 12th place out of a 18 strategies followed by that website. See the “Strategies Summary” link on the top of their page.
Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested
Since the latest BDH BUY signal, the ETF portfolio has gained 9.94% compared to a gain of 12.33% for the three major averages. Our portfolio has lost ground to the averages in the past few weeks with the poor performance of SMH since its purchase. Note that both SMH and IYT have “fail” ratings due to a negative MACD crossover. Check out the spreadsheet:
Here is the link to the Decision Page: http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php
To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g., sector ETFs. You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance. You will note the strong performance XLF, IYT, XLE and XLI in the Sectors, and BRF and EWC in the International sector.
Currently, 28 ETFs have a “pass” rating out of 52, which indicates not all ETF categories are participating in the rally to new highs
Conclusion — Market Keeps Rising
The stock market has had an amazing run since the election. Enjoy the ride as long as it lasts, and make sure your personal stop limits are placed on all positions to protect principal. This bull market run since March 9, 2009 has now made it the longest bull market in history measured by weeks at 411 weeks, based on the S&P 500 Index. So don’t be surprised if it runs out of steam soon to begin a decline. I am using a 5% trailing stop to protect capital. You should use your own defensive approach.
Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them. If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile. Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes. I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.