Blog

Mar 19

Market Bulletin

Today Indicator#8 had a clear cut MACD crossover to the downside, thereby confirming the Index crossover occurring at the end of last week.  This resulted in a change in the Dashboard from a NEUTRAL reading to a SELL reading after the market close today.

Tomorrow morning at the open the three remaining ETFs in the Top 5 Portfolio will be sold resulting in a 100% cash position.  There are EPI, QQQ, and PDP.

A full report will be provided in the upcoming weekend blog.

 

Mar 15

COMP March 14 2014

Market Review

The stock market encountered a week of profit-taking, as all three major averages fell more than 2%.  Gold, utility and bond prices advanced. This was the market’s worst weekly performance in about six weeks.  Concerns over the Ukraine situation and conflicting state-side economic news most likely impacted the market’s direction.

 The DJIA is the weakest of the three major averages and has dropped below its 50-dma and touched the 100-dma, closing just above it on Friday. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite are nearing their 50-dma. For the week, the S&P lost the least with a drop of 2.00%, followed by the NASDAQ losing 2.14%, and finally the DJIA losing 2.41%.

Bond ETF prices reverse upward this week after getting clobbered the week before. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance after pulling up the NASDAQ Composite chart.

NASI March 14 2014

Indicator Review – One Change

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on March 12th. (Refer to first chart again and the blue arrow) as the NASDAQ continues to be the best performing major index.   

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest March 12th bullish percentage reading was 41.3% which was slightly higher than the March 5th bullish percentage reading of 40.5%. Investors are still more bullish (contrary indicator) looking out six months ahead, than they were two weeks earlier.   This indicator remains on its SELL signal.   

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The index crossed below its 5-day ema (see blue arrow) on March 12 and still on a BUY signal until the MACD confirms the index crossover to the downside.  Looking at the second chart it is getting close to a negative crossover situation.

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard in Neutral mode

The Dashboard is in a “3” BUY mode.  The latest update is shown here:

 Dashboard-V2-March 14 , 2014

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. So far year-to-date the BDH ETF portfolio is up approximately 4.15% (my calculation until dark-liquidity updates their site)compared to an averagegain of 0.29% for the three market averages. 

Top 5 ETFs – 60% Invested

The current portfolio consists of: EPI QQQ, and PDP. PBW and XLV were sold during the week at a profit from their initial purchase price, after falling below their 3% trailing stops.  The remaining three ETFs are close to their trailing stop price as indicated in the comment line next to each of those ETFs. Refer to the Top 5 table for all the pertinent data:

Top 5 ETF Tracking March 14, 2014

A trailing stop is different that a regular stop LIMIT order.  In our case, the trailing stop tracked the ETF price while it was rising and then triggered when the intra-day price fell 3% from the highest intra-price achieved since the ETF purchase date.  A stop LIMIT order is a fixed price that does not move and only triggers when the price is hit.  A trailing stop provides more profit when an ETF rises in price, as its price moves higher as well.  The stop method and percentage an investor uses is based on his/her individual situation.  I am currently using 3% because of the market’s big run-up and my view that a decline was nearby. After a decent size correction of at least 10%, I will most likely revert to a 7% training stop to give the market more room to move and not be shaken out of positions so frequently.

Since the last BUY signal on February 20, 2014, the BDH portfolio is up 4.15% (included IBB sale on Feb 28 at 3% trailing stop, and PBW and XLV sales), compared to 0.29% for the major averages.  Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page the number of ETFs with shows that a “pass” rating has dropped precipitously to 8 compared to 32 for the prior week.  This deterioration of “pass” ratings indicates a market that has quickly reversed to a downward direction.  Whether the market moves lower from here remains to be seen.

Conclusion – Market Take a Small Hit So Far

The stock market took a small 2%+ hit this past week, but the major averages are only a few percentage points away from their 2014 highs. This week’s decline may be the beginning of the long-awaited 10%+ correction.  We will know if that is the case in a few weeks or more. The remaining three ETFs will be sold this week if the market continues to decline, as they are all very close to their 3% trailing stop numbers.  At that point the portfolio will be 100% in cash awaiting the next BUY signal.  Moreover, the Dashboard will register a “1’ SELL signal if Indicator #8 has a MACD sell signal this week.

At this juncture extreme caution is urged as the market may be entering a more severe decline.  The Dashboard and our stops will protect us if the market continues to decline further.

 

Mar 02

COMP Feb 28 2014

Market Review

The stock market continued to advance with new yearly highs for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite.  The latter index continues to be the leader on a percentage basis in this new year up 3.15%.  The S&P 500, year-to-date is up 0.60%, and the DJIA is down 1.54%. 

 All three major averages remained well above their last critical support levels and key moving averages (50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages.  For the week, the S&P gained 1.26% closing at 1859.45 well above critical support of 1800.  The DJIA gained 1.36% to close at 16321.71 well above critical support 16000. Finally, the NASDAQ closed at 4308.12 up 1.05% well above critical support at 4100.

Bond ETF prices ended the week in rally mode with nice gains.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance using the NASDAQ Composite chart.

NASI February 28 2014

Indicator Review – No Change

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on February 11th. (Refer to first chart again) as the NASDAQ continues to be the best performing major index.   

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest February 26th bullish percentage reading was 39.7% which was slightly lower than the February 19th bullish percentage reading of 40.1%. Investors are now a bit less bullish (contrary indicator) looking out six months ahead, than they were two weeks earlier.   This indicator remains on its SELL signal.   

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The index crossed above its 5-day ema on February 12th, while the MACD crossed upward a week later on February 19th.  Therefore, this indicator is on a BUY signal.

The current Dashboard link is here:  Dashboard-V2-February 28 2014

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance.  This link which may not be updated yet.

So far year-to-date the BDH ETF portfolio is up 2.56% compared to an averagegain of 0.74% for the three market averages. 

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

The current portfolio consists of: IBB, QQQ, XLV, PDP and PBW. This portfolio is up 2.38% since its recent purchase, compared to 1.65% for the major averages.  Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page shows that 37 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating compared to 22 for the prior week.  The “pass” ratings have jumped much higher the past two weeks as the market powers ahead.

The current spreadsheet link:  Top 5 ETF Tracking February 28 2014

Conclusion – Market Continues to Power Ahead

The NASDAQ Composite continues to be the performance leader, as is the normal case in Bull Market runs.  However, the percentage of NYSE stocks participating in the latest rally is less than it was at the peak in prices last year.  In addition, only 6% of the S&P 500 stocks hit 52-week highs this past week.  This is a relatively low number at market highs indicating that only a small number of stocks are powering the averages higher.  Usually, this type of scenario occurs prior to a market top. 

At this juncture extreme caution is urged as the market may be nearing a near-term top with a downside move setting in.  Be very careful about investing at this time, and remember that you are responsible for your investment decisions.  Remember to use appropriate stops to protect your principal.  Many investors fail to do so and take big losses.  Don’t be one of them.

 

Feb 22

COMP February 21 2014

Market Review

The stock market rested this week as the major averages had small percentage changes.  The NASDAQ Composite was the only average that advanced, thereby closing at another new 2014 high.  The continued positive action of technology stocks has powered this index higher and as a result Indicator #8 had a BUY signal triggered this past Wednesday. 

All three major averages remain above their critical support levels and key moving averages (50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages.  For the week, the S&P lost only 0.13% closing at 1836.25 above critical support of 1800.  The DJIA lost 0.52% to close at 16103.30 above critical support 16000. Finally, the NASDAQ closed at 4263.41 up 0.46% well above critical support at 4100. So far year-to-date the BDH ETF portfolio is up 0.98% compared to a lost of 0.03% for the three market averages. 

Bond ETF prices ended the week on the downside.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance using the NASDAQ Composite chart.

NASI Feb 21 2014

Indicator Review – One Change

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on February 11th. (Refer to first chart again) as the NASDAQ continues to be the best performing major index.   

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest February 12th bullish percentage reading was 42.2% which was slightly higher than the February 19th bullish percentage reading of 40.1%. Investors are now a bit much more bullish (contrary indicator) looking out six months ahead, than they were two weeks earlier.   This indicator remains on its SELL signal.   

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The index crossed above its 5-day ema on February 12th , while the MACD crossed upward a week later on February 19th .  Therefore, this indicator is on a BUY signal.

The latest Dashboard spreadsheet:

Dashboard-V2-February 21 2014

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here, but may not be updated yet:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 0.98% compared loss of 0.03% for the three major averages, with the NASDAQ showing the best relative performance up 2.1%, and the S&P 500 up 0.70% and the DJIA off 2.9%.  This site may not have the latest BUY signal information yet, so check back over the next few days.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

After the February 19th Dashboard BUY signal, the following four highest relative strength ETFs with a “pass” rating were purchased at the open on February 20th : IBB, QQQ, XLV, and PDP.  They were all in the top 10.  PBW was purchased at the open on February 21 as it had a “pass” rating on February 20 and in the top 10.  There were only 4 stocks with “pass” ratings on February 19th.  Here is the latest spreadsheet:

Top 5 ETF Tracking February 21 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page shows that 22 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating compared to 21 for the prior week.  The  “pass” ratings have stabilized the past two weeks.  At market highs the number of “pass” ratings should be much higher.  The current numbers indicate that many stocks are not participating in this latest advance.

Conclusion – Market Continues to Power Ahead BUT Extreme Caution is Urged

The NASDAQ Composite is the performance leader, as is the normal case in Bull Market runs.  However, the percentage of NYSE stocks participating in the latest rally is less than it was at the peak in prices last year.  Usually, this scenario occurs prior to a market top. 

Moreover, the last three Dashboard BUY signals have come at market highs which is not the desired situation. The previous two BUY signals have resulted in losses. Therefore, at this juncture extreme caution is urged as the market may be nearing a near-term top with a downside move setting in.  Be very careful about investing at this time, and remember that you are responsible for your investment decisions.

 

Feb 16

COMP Feb 14 2014

Market Review

All three major averages continue their impressive advance, as all are above their critical support levels and key moving averages (50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages.  The NASDAQ has powered to a new 2014 high on its positive Friday close.

For the week, the S&P gained 2.30% closing at 1838.63 above critical support of 1800.  The DJIA gained 2.28% to close at 16154.39 above critical support 16000. Finally, the NASDAQ closed at 4244.03 up 2.86% well above critical support at 4100. So far year-to-date the BDH ETF portfolio is up 0.18% compared to a gain of 0.46% for the three market averages. 

Bond ETF prices ended the week on the downside, but only slightly.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance.

NASI Feb 14 2014

Indicator Review – One Change

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover BUY signal on February 11th. (Refer to first chart again) as the NASDAQ continues to be the best performing major index.   

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest February 12th bullish percentage reading was 40.1% which was much higher than the February 5th bullish percentage reading of 27.3%. Investors are now much more bullish (contrary indicator) looking out six months ahead, than they were two weeks earlier.   This indicator remains on its previous SELL signal.   

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The index crossed above its 5-day ema on February 12th , while the MACD has not yet crossed upward.  Therefore this indicator is still on a SELL signal, but a BUY signal is nearby as soon as the MACD confirms..

Dashboard on a Neutral Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

 Dashboard-V2-February 14 2014

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 0.18% compared gain of 0.46% for the three major averages, with the NASDAQ showing the best relative performance up 1.60%, and the S&P 500 down 0.50% and the DJIA off 2.5%.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% in Cash

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page shows that 21 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating compared to 4 for the past three weeks.  This improving number of “pass” ratings clearly indicates that the market is making solid progress.  A continued market advance will result in more “pass” ETFs.

Conclusion – Market Continues to Power Ahead

The stock market has had a solid two-week advance almost wiping out the 5%+ correction that had occurred in January.  Indicator #5 had a BUY signal this week, and Indicator #8 is nearing a BUY signal.  When that occurs the Dashboard will be on a BUY signal.  However, as has happened on the most recent occasions, this is occurring at market highs rather than at market reversals off bottoms.  So the next BUY signal, if it comes soon will be one to be cautious about.

 

Feb 10

ETF.com’s Inside ETFs Conference

       (Jan 26-29, 2014 at the Westin Diplomat in Hollywood, FL)

 

     This is the world’s most comprehensive ETF conference offered annually in Florida where attendees (mostly financial advisors, wealth managers, and knowledgeable retail investors) extracted the latest knowledge and information of the current state of the booming ETF industry.  Currently, in the U.S. over 1,500 ETFs are available valued at about $1.7 trillion.  With over 1,500 attendees had many opportunities to increase their knowledge-based among the break-out sessions, presentations, exhibitor displays and materials and also featured speakers including Jeremy Siegel, Jeb Bush, Sally Krawcheck, and Liz Ann Sonders.  A large number of ETF vendors and key players were available in the Exhibit Hall and in the hallways of the beautiful Westin Diplomat hotel.  Every major ETF provider and issuer was on premises.

     The exhibit hall was packed with many firms explaining their ETF offerings and capabilities.  Going around the exhibit hall I met many knowledgeable professionals  including vendors, Registered Investment Advisors and ETF Strategists who provided insights into their product offerings and where they saw the industry going.  There were many new firms compared to two years ago when I last attended this conference.  I collected about ten pounds of brochures and information sheets to review after the conference to reference during the writing of my upcoming book titled All About ETF Momentum Strategies to be published by McGraw-Hill in the last quarter of this year.

     One major announcement by IndexUniverse was their rebranding from IndexUniverse to ETF.com which more clearly defines their focus.   According to a January 27th Press Release:

 “ETF.com,the world’s leading authority on exchange-traded funds (ETFs), announced today the launch of its flagship website, offering investors free access to the latest news, ratings, strategies, data and research designed specifically for ETFs.

 ETF.com includes access to ETF.com Analytics, which offers full analyst coverage of 1,500+ funds, screening tools and downloadable data. ETF.com offers the broadest and deepest analysis of ETFs, helping investors identify the best funds in more than 400 categories, drawn from traditional asset classes such as equities and fixed income as well as commodities, currencies and more.”

     Moreover, their ETF Analytics product which was formerly a subscription-based $2000 a year license is now totally free. According to Jim Wiandt, founder and CEO of ETF.com: “We want to change the investing world by offering institutional-caliber ETF analytics and data to everyone.”

      This powerful analytics program provides the capability to select ETFs based on the user or client’s needs which meet specific characteristics that are user-selected.  There are ETF ratings provided which focuses on efficiency, tradability, and fit.  Additionally, the dedicated ETF research team offers their insight and commentary on each ETF.  Lastly, the program offers an “Analyst Pick” with the highest recommended funds in each ETF category. 

     This product, with millions of dollars in development costs, offers institutional-quality data and an analytics engine that is second to none.  Retail investors now have a sophisticated ETF research tool at their fingertips.  This is particularly useful for self-directed investors who want to build their own portfolios and need to      determine the key characteristics and data points of each ETF.  Additionally, financial advisors who manage their clients’ portfolios with ETF components will have the ability to apply their due diligence to each recommended ETF where all the key information is in one place.  To use the analytics product, go to the following URL:

 http://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-finder

      Overall, this ETF conference provided me with latest information that will help me become a smarter ETF investor and hopefully a more successful one.

Feb 08

COMP February 7 2014

Market Review

All three major averages came back by week’s end, after a big drop on Monday, to finish the week in positive territory.  For the week, the S&P gained 0.81% closing at 1797.02 slightly below critical support of 1800 and below its 50-dma.  The DJIA gained 0.61% to close at 15794.08 below critical support 16000, as well as below its 50-dma. Finally, the NASDAQ closed at 4125.86 up 0.54% above critical support at 4100, but above its 50-dma.   So far year-to-date the BDH ETF portfolio is up 0.18% compared to a loss of 2.9% for the three market averages. 

Bond ETF prices had a mixed with the equity market’s volatility.  Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance.

NASI February 7 2014

Indicator Review – No Changes

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on January 23th. (Refer to first chart again).   However, the MACD is basing and starting to turn up.  Another positive week in the market could trigger a BUY signal on this indicator.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest February 5th bullish percentage reading was 27.3% which was much lower than the January 29th bullish percentage reading of 32.2%. Investors are now much less bullish (contrary indicator) looking out six months ahead, than they were two weeks earlier.   This indicator remains on its previous SELL signal.   Remember a weekly reading below 25% and then a higher weekly reading thereafter would generate a BUY signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD.  The index crossed below its 5-day ema on January 23, while the MACD has crossed downward on January 27.  Therefore this indicator is now on a SELL signal.

Dashboard on a SELL Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

 Dashboard-V2-February 7 2014

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 0.18% compared to a loss of 2.9% for the three major averages, with the NASDAQ showing the best relative performance down only1.74%.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% in Cash

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page shows that only 4 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating compared to the same number for the past three weeks.  This low number of “pass” ratings clearly indicates that the market is under selling pressure.  However, a continued market upswing will result in many ETFs crossing above their MACD for a “pass” rating.

Conclusion – Market Had a Solid Advance after Early Weakness

The stock market experienced one of its worst days of the year on Monday, had a small advance on Tuesday, hit new intra-day lows on Wednesday, and then closed with two strong days.  If it can sustain the recent two-day rally, then rising prices will result and a Dashboard BUY signal will be generated.  If not the market will continue its decline and being in cash is a safe place to be.

Mid- week I will send out a separate blog covering the highlights of the etf.com Index Universe conference that I attended.

 

Feb 02

COMP January 31 2014

Market Review This Past Week

All three major averages took a drubbing for the past two week with all averages still with a negative MACD crossover status.  Just input $INDU and $SPX in the first chart ticker symbol box to see those indexes and their MACD negative crossovers.

After many winning weeks the market’s direction has finally turned down.  For the week the S&P lost only 0.43% still closing below critical support of 1800 and below its 50-dma at 1782.59.  The DJIA again declined the most at 1.14% to close at 15698.85 well below critical support 16000, as well as below its 50-dma. Finally, the NASDAQ closed at 4103.88 down only 0.59% with critical support still holding at 4100, and below its 50-dma.   So far year-to-date (month of January) the BDH ETF portfolio is up 0.18% compared to a loss of 3.53% for the three market averages.  All Top 5 ETFs were sold out at their respective 3% trailing stops.

Bond ETF prices ended the week on another burst upward for the fourth week of positive movement. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance.

NASI January 31 2014Indicator Review – One Indicator Change This Week

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on January 23th. (Refer to first chart again). 

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest January 29thh bullish percentage reading was 32.2% which was lower than the January 22nd bullish percentage reading of 38.1%. Investors are much less bullish (contrary indicator) looking out six months ahead, than they were two weeks earlier.   This indicator remains on its previous SELL signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACDThe index crossed below its 5-day ema on January 23, while the MACD has crossed downward on January 27.  Therefore this indicator is now on a SELL signal.

Dashboard Now on a SELL Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-January-31-2014

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date (2014 only) is up 0.18% compared to a loss of 3.53% for the three major averages, with the NASDAQ showing the best relative performance down oonly1.74%.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% In Cash

QQQ was sold at its 3% trailing stop on Monday thus joining the other four ETFs in the cash mode.  The current statistics are as follows:

BDH Blog January 31, 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page shows only 4 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating compared to the same number the week before that.  This low number of “pass” ratings clearly indicates that the market is under selling pressure.

Conclusion – Market Had Back-to-Back Weekly Price Declines

The stock market has started the year with a negative monthly performance.  Indicator #8 had a SELL signal this week.  The market is now in a short-term downtrend so cash is king right now.

Next week I will report on the etf.com Index Universe conference that I attended this past week

Jan 28

Market Bulletin

With Monday’s wildly swinging stock market, Indicator #8 MACD had a negative crossover therefore  issuing a SELL signal.   Also, the last ETF in the portfolio was sold at its 3% trailing stop.   Therefore the portfolio is 100% in cash.

A full report will be provided this coming weekend.

Jan 26

COMP January 25 2014

Market Review This Past Week

All three major averages took a drubbing this past week with all averages having a negative MACD crossover status.  Just input $INDU and $SPX in the first chart ticker symbol box to see those indexes and their MACD negative crossovers.

After many winning weeks the market’s direction has finally turned down.  For the week the S&P lost 2.63% closing below critical support of 1800 and below its 50-dma at 1790.29.  The DJIA declined the most at 3.52% to close at 15879.11 below critical support 16000, as well as below its 50-dma. Finally, the NASDAQ closed at 4128.17 down only 1.65% with critical support still holding at 4100, and still above its 50-dma.   So far year-to-date the BDH ETF portfolio is up 0.94% compared to a loss of 2.84% for the three market averages (refer to Top 5 screen).  Even though the Dashboard is on a NEUTRAL rating, note that four of the five Top ETFs were sold at their 3% trailing stops.

Bond ETF prices ended the week on another burst upward for the third week of positive movement. Please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current week’s performance.

NASI January 25 2014

Indicator Review – One Indicator Change This Week

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a clear-cut MACD crossover SELL signal on January 23th. (Refer to first chart again). 

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest January 22th bullish percentage reading was 38.1% which was lower than the January 15th bullish percentage reading of 39.0%. Investors are slightly less bullish (contrary indicator) looking out six months ahead, than they were two weeks earlier.   This indicator remains on its SELL signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACDThe index crossed below its 5-day ema on January 23, while the MACD has almost crossed downward.  Therefore this indicator is not yet on a SELL signal, but it very close to one.

Dashboard Now on a Neutral Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

 Dashboard-V2-January-25-2014

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date (2014 only) is up 0.94% compared to a loss of 2.84% for the three major averages.    

Top 5 ETFs – 20% Invested

The ETF portfolio had four sells this week as the 3% trailing stops were hit by week’s end.  Only the QQQ is still in the portfolio, but is also very close to triggering its stop as indicated on the table in the following link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking January 24 2014

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page now only 4 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating compared to 16 out of 42 ETFs the week before that.  This large increase indicates a much more negative tone to the market.

Conclusion – Market Finally Has a Bad Week

The stock market has started the year slowly with a small loss after three weeks in the DJIA and S&P 500, and a small gain in the NASDAQ Composite, but that has now turned into a negative return for the three major indexes.  Indicator #5 had a SELL signal this week.  The market is now in a downtrend so extreme caution is urged.  Indicator #8 is near an imminent SELL signal which would result in a Dashboard “1” SELL signal.  QQQ is almost very near a trailing stop SELL signal which could easily be triggered on Monday.