Blog

Nov 29

The stock market made little progress this week.  Nothing new to report.  Keep stop LIMITs in place.  A full report will be provided the weekend of December 5.

Nov 22

This weekend and next weekend I will only be able to post very short blogs.  The regular schedule will resume on December 6 0r 7.

The major averages all advanced over 3% for the week which turned out to be one of the best weeks of the year to date.  The recommendation not to sell the ETF portfolio on Monday turned out to be on the money, as the NASDAQ Composite had a positive MACD crossover, thus turning the Dashboard from a SELL the prior Friday (November 13) to a NEUTRAL “2” in my intra-week posting.

Maintain the portfolio and keep your stop LIMITs in place.

Have a great Thanksgiving!!

Nov 16

interim Report

The market experienced a nice rally today.  The NASDAQ Composite closed higher and above its 100-dma (Indicator#2).  Therefore that indicator has reversed its SELL signal of late last week.  The Dashboard improved to a “2” Neutral reading and all ETFs are still in the portfolio.  So far so good on the recommendation to await today’s action before selling out the portfolio.  Today’s market action keep us in the market.

Nov 14

Market Review COMP November 13, 2015

The market had a terrible week with all major averages declining below their critical 200-dma long term moving averages.  All averages are also near their 50-dmas.  If those are breached then the market slide could continue.

For the week, the S&P 500 declined 3.63%, the DJIA lost 3.71%, and the NASDAQ Composite lost the most at 4.26%.  This terrible performance is one of the worst weeks of the year.

The number of new NYSE 52-week lows jumped to 328 and new highs decline to 118 indicating a market getting weaker.

Also, note that only 43.00% of all NYSE stocks are above their respective 50-dmas compared to 74% in early November, and only 27.07% are above their 200-dmas at week’s end.   Thus, the market has given back about 25% of its again off the yearly lows.

Bond prices rallied as stocks swooned, oil (USO) fell again for the ninth consecutive day approaching their lows for the year. Gold (GLD) prices fell to their prior yearly lows, while gold miners (GDX) ended the week unchanged.

In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –Three Changes  NASI November 13 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a SELL signal on November 13, Friday (refer to first chart circled area).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator issued a MACD SELL signal on November 12 (refer to first chart MACD indicator).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest November 11 Bullish Percentage reading was 34.3%  compared to 39.9% two weeks ago.  This indicator has spent considerable time in the 30% area for a number of weeks.  So investors are less bullish going out over six months. This indicator still remains still on a May 27 BUY signal. 

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator issued a SELL signal on November 13 as the MACD experienced a negativecrossover, coupled with an EMA crossover on November 12.  (Refer to second chart’s circled areas.)

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “1” SELL Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-Novwmber 15, 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is  down 4.75% compared to the DJIA down 3.24% for the year, followed by the S&P 500 1.74%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 4.05%.  Thus, the only index performing better than average is the latter.

The BDH strategy is in 11th place out of the 18 tracked by the website.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested But Probably Not for Long

The portfolio is 100% invested in XLY, XLP, XHB, QQQ, VNQ.  Fifty of the 52 ETFs have a fail rating except for UUO and TBF.  This is one of the worst readings since the August 24th lows.   Since the last BUY signal the BDH portfolio has lost 1.61% compared to a gain of 1.29% for the major averages.

XHB has declined 5.01% so far, just beyond its 5% trailing stop.  But I will hold for another day to see if a rebound occurs, otherwise I will sell on the open on Tuesday.

Here is the latest spreadsheet:

Top-5-ETF-Tracking-November 13-2015

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of the fixed income.

Conclusion  — Market Crumbles But Stay the Course for At Least Another Day

The market has declined at a rapid rate the past eight days, after reaching its highest point since late September on a big rally. A Continued decline could target the early October lows or even decline to the August 24th low if the October lows are breached.  Although the Dashboard has issued a SELL signal, I recommend holding off for at least a day to see if the market bounces higher early in the week with the NASDAQ crossing back above its 100-dma (Indicator#2) at 4935.02.  Right now after the rapid decline a bounce may occur right now. If that occurs Indicator #2 will be back on a BUY signal and the Dashboard will revert to a “2” NEUTRAL reading.  If the market falls further on Monday, then all ETFs will be sold at the open on Tuesday morning.  If the market rises we will await its decision on how it handles the 100-dma and go from there.

Make sure to have trailing stop LIMIT orders in place.  I have been a using 5% trailing stop LIMITs for the BDH portfolio, but every investor needs to select their own stop numbers based on his/her risk tolerance.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Nov 12

Interim Update

The market’s pummeling this week resulted in Indicators #5 and #8 issuing sell signals.  The Dashboard is now on a NEUTRAL signal. Make sure your stops are in place.

A report will be provided this week in the normal blog.

Nov 07

This week  will be another bi-weekly shortened blog, as not much has changed since last blog report

Market Review–The BDH strategy remains on a “4” BUY reading.  COMP November 6 2015

The market started the week with a bang, advanced on Tuesday, fell on Wednesday and Thursday, and ended the week with a mixed day on Friday.  Nevertheless, gains in all three major averages occurred with the NASDAQ Composite leading the way up 1.85%, followed by the DJIA up 1.40%, and the S&P 500 up 0.95%.  As the chart shows, the NASDAQ has pierced the upper blue horizontal resistance line that now change to a support line.  This index (5147.12) is now approaching the former highs in late July at 5231.94.  This is quite a comeback of the lows on August 24th and late September.

Gold and gold miners prices plunged to lows for the year, and bonds also fell to their lows of mid-September, and oil declined the last four days of last week.

Year-to-date, the BDH strategy is down 1.19% compared to the  DJIA up 0.49%, the S&P 500 up 1.96%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 8.68%.  The new 52-week highs were a meager 253 compared to  202 the prior week and the number of new lows improved to 157 from 198 the prior week.

The Top 5 ETF portfolio contains five ETFs:  XLP (rank 5), VNQ (9), and XHB (6) which continue to have fail ratings due to a negative MACD crossover.  However, XLY (1) and QQQ (2) continue to perform well. Make sure that your personal trailing stops are in place to minimize any potential losses in case the market has another leg down which is not expected this time of year.

 

 

Oct 31

This week is the bi-weekly shortened blog.COMP October 30 2015

Market Review

Except for the nice bounce on Wednesday after the Fed’s pronouncement on interest rates, the market averages were mostly down on the other days.   For the week the averages were up between 0.20% to 0.43%, a minimal showing. Right now the averages are in a trading range between a support and resistance line as shown in the accompanying chart.

The market advance of over 8% in October has been the best in four years, and proves the point that this month continues to be a “Bear Killer” with its powerful rebound.  Gold, miners, and bonds all fell, but oil managed a small advance.

Year-to-date, the BDH strategy is down 0.98% compared to the  DJIA up 0.90%, the S&P 500 up 0.99%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 6.71%.  The new 52-week highs were a meager 202 vs. 198 new lows, both anemic numbers in a market near its highs for the year.

The Top 5 ETF portfolio contains five ETFs that are all numbered 1 through 5, but XLP, VNQ, and XHB all have fail ratings due to a negative MACD crossover.   Make sure that your personal trailing stops are in place to minimize any potential losses in case the market has another leg down which is not expected this time of year.

The BDH strategy remains on a “4” BUY reading.  But after the strong advance over the past 16 trading days a down week would not be unexpected. NASI Oct 30 2015  Note that on the accompanying chart (Indicator #8) that the indicators are turning over (see circled areas) and may experience a downward crossover next week.  If that occurs the Dashboard will recede to a “3” BUY signal.

Have a happy and sweet Halloween!

 

Oct 24

Market Review COMP October 23 2015

The market had another great week with powerful gains by the indexes, notably the NASDAQ which benefited from price performance of Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet (new name for Google).  After trending water Monday through Wednesday, the market vaulted much higher with a real big gain on Friday (see accompanying NASDAQ chart).  This big gap up (see blue circle on the chart)  held for the day with the other two major averages experiencing the same event.

In one fell swoop on Friday, the NASDAQ Composite Index jumped beyond both its 100-dma and 200-dmas.Even the 5000 resistance level was exceeded which is now considered a near term support level.  Accordingly, Indicator #2 issued a BUY signal resulting in a Dashboard “4” BUY signal.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2.07%, the DJIA gained 2.50%, and the NASDAQ Composite gained the most at 2.97%.  The latter index is not far away from its 2015 high near 5225 (see first chart).  The DJIA and S&P 500 cleared the 100- and 200-dmas by Friday’s close.  Only the Russell 2000 Small Cap is lagging not yet rising above either of those two moving averages.

The number of new NYSE 52-week lows was 136 compared to 228 new highs.

Also, note that 68.1% of all NYSE stocks are above their respective 50-dmas compared to 14.5% in late September, and 36.6% are above their 200-dmas at week’s end compared to 17.5% in late September.   Thus, the market has made great progress off its August 24 and late September lows.

Bond prices sank as stock prices soared, oil (USO) fell  9%Gold (GLD) prices fell but  gold miners (GDX) ended the week a little higher.

In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –NASI October 23 2015One Change 

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator issued a BUY signal on October 23(refer to first chart).

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD BUY signal on October 5 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest October 21 Bullish Percentage reading was 34.8%  compared to 34.1% two weeks ago.  So investors are slightly more bullish going out over six months. This indicator still remains still on a May 27 BUY signal. 

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a BUY signal on October 8 as the MACD experienced a positive crossover.  This confirmed the earlier EMA crossover on October 5.  (Refer to second chart.)

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Now on “4” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-October 23, 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is  down 0.67% compared to the DJIA down 0.99% for the year, followed by the S&P 500 up 0.79%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 6.25%.  Thus, the only index performing better than average is the latter.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of the open on October 9. The current ETFs held are XLY, XLP, XHB, QQQ, VNQ.The ETFscreen table containing 52 ETFs had 21 “pass” ratings.

Here is the spreadsheet:

Top-5-ETF-Tracking-October 23-2015

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of the fixed income.

Conclusion  — Market Rockets Higher

The market continues to make a solid comeback since October 1 and looks strong going forward after successfully exceeding its 200-dma on a gap opening on Friday.  The short-term trend is up, but the market’s big move over the past twelve trading sessions may be over for now as the market may consolidate or give back some of the gains this coming week.  If it instead works its way higher again, then that would be a very positive sign going forward.    Make sure to have trailing stop LIMIT orders in place.  I will be using 5% trailing stop LIMITs for the BDH portfolio, but every investor needs to select their own stop numbers based on his/her risk tolerance.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.

Oct 18

This week is the shortened blog posting.

COMP October 16 2015The stock market started the week on the defensive with a decline into Wednesday, then had a big up day on Thursday with a small follow through on Friday.  For the week the major averages were up around 1%.  As you can see on the chart the NASDAQ Composite is approaching two critical moving averages as shown in the blue circle on the right of the chart.

The index is only 23 points away from the critical 200-dma, and 57 points away from the 100-dma (Indicator #2).   Taking out both those levels will indicate that the market is probably headed higher into year-end.

The BDH strategy is down 2.68% for 2015 compared to a loss of 3.41% for the DJIA, a loss of 1.25% for the S&P 500, and a gain of 3.18% for the NASDAQ Composite. Last week there were 131  52-week NYSE highs and 74 new lows.  The etfscreen Decision Page had 18 ETFs with a “pass” rating compared to 12 the prior week.  Four of the five Top 5 ETFs in the portfolio had pass ratings, but XHB did not.

A full report will be provided next weekend.   Have a good week!

Oct 11

Market Review COMP October 9 2015

The market had a great week with gains exceeding 3% for the averages except for the NASDAQ which did not do as well. This has been one of the best performing market weeks in months.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.26%, the DJIA gained 3.72%, and the NASDAQ Composite gained the least at 2.61%.  The latter index is now just 126 points away from its 100-dma (see first chart).

As of last week, both the S&P 500 and DJIA are above their 50-dmas, but the NASDAQ is not.  However, it is only five points away from that level.  The number of new lows decreased to 53 from much higher readings the past three weeks. Therefore, the market has made a nice recovery from its August 24 intra-day lows. Also, note that 64.57% of all NYSE stocks are above their respective 50-dmas compared to 20.6% about 2.5 weeks ago, and 31.01% are above their 200-dmas at week’s end compared to 20% a few weeks ago.   Thus, the market has made great progress off the August 24 lows.

Bond prices sank as stock prices soared, oil (USO) had a blockbuster week up about 9%. Gold (GLD) prices rallied and  gold miners (GDX) ended the week much higher as well.

In the above chart, please type in ETF ticker symbols IEF, TLT, BOND, SHY or AGG or others one at a time to see their current bond weekly performance, or GLD, GDX and USO for the other averages.

Indicator Review –Two Changes Since October 5 NASI October 9 2015

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma. This indicator remains on its SELL signal of August 19 (refer to first chart).  However, the index is only 126 points away from its 100-dma.

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had an MACD BUY signal on October 5 (refer to first chart).

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage. The latest October 7Bullish Percentage reading jumped tp 37.5% from 28.1% two weeks ago.  So investors are now much more bullish going out over six months. This indicator still remains still on a May 27 BUY signal. 

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACD. This indicator had a BUY signal on October 8 as the MACD experienced a positive crossover.  This confirmed the earlier EMA crossover on October 5.  Refer to second chart.

Here is a chart showing all Dashboard buy and sell signals (it may take a day or two for the new signal to be posted):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dashboard Reamins on “3” BUY Signal

The latest update is shown here:

Dashboard-V2-October 9, 2015_WC-1

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. For 2015, the BDH portfolio is in 10th place out of 18 total strategies measured by the site with a year-to-date loss of 3.11%. So far the DJIA is down 4.14% for the year, followed by the S&P 500 down 2.14%, and the NASDAQ Composite up 1.99%.

Top 5 ETFs –  100% Invested

The portfolio is 100% invested as of the open on October 9.  Here is the spreadsheet:

Top-5-ETF-Tracking-October 9-2015

The current ETFs held are XLY, XLP, XHB, QQQ, VNQ.

In the future when the market corrects and then a Dashboard BUY signal is given, the Top 5 ETFs (not fixed income, currency or inverse ETFs) will be bought if they have a “pass” rating.  Additonally, if five ETFs do not meet that criteria, but they have a positive MACD reading then they will be bought as well until five ETFs have been selected. The logic is that after a correction some of the Top ranked ETFs may still be below their 100-dma and their one month return may still be negative.  Waiting for them to attain those targets may take too long to get a good entry point.  Buying early is the most logical approach in that circumstance.

The ETFscreen table containing 52 ETFs had 12 “pass” ratings.

Here is the link to the Decision Page:  http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

To get a feel where the best performing ETFs are by asset class, I suggest that you pull up the seven asset classes on the right side of the Decision Page (in blue ink) to see which ETFs have been doing the best — e.g.,sector ETFs.  You can click on the down arrow in the three month and one month columns of the each grouping to see short-term performance.  You will note the strong performance of the sector funds as compared to the weak performance of the fixed income.

Conclusion  — Market Trending Higher

The market continues to make a solid comeback since October 1 and has not retested its August 24 (S&P 500 has done this though). The short term trend is up, but the market’s big move over the past seven trading sessions may be over for now as the market may consolidate or give back some of the gains this coming week.  If it instead powers higher, then that is a very positive sign going forward.  If the 200-dma is then taken out, then the market will be on its way to test the prior highs for the year.  Make sure to have stop LIMIT orders in.  I will be using 5% stop LIMITs for the BDH portfolio, but every investor needs to select their own stop numbers based on his/her risk tolerance.

Remember that you are responsible for your investments and how you manage them.   If you decide to follow the BDH strategy, then you are responsible for checking the BDH indicators daily during times when the market is volatile.  Just bookmark the two charts above and look for any signal changes.  I may not available during the week to provide interim Dashboard signal changes. It is important to be pro-active so as not to miss any Dashboard signals. Decide on and place your stop LIMITS that meet your risk profile.