Blog

Nov 01

COMP Nov 1 2013

Market Review

The stock market had a lackluster week with all the averages nearly unchanged. Economic news and earnings reports continued to impact the market’s performance.  Indicator #3 is very close to a SELL signal, as the MACD had a slight negative crossover on Friday.  

All three indexes remain above critical levels – S&P 500 above 1750, DJIA above 15500, and the NASDAQ Composite above 3900. However, for the second consecutive week the NASDAQ had the weakest performance falling 0.54%, followed by the S&P 500 gaining 0.11%, and the DJIA gaining the most for the second consecutive week at 0.29%.  So far year-to-date, the BDH ETF portfolio is up about 7% according to dark-liquidity.com.  This compares with the NASDAQ Composite’s 29.83% performance, S&P 500 performance of 23.31%, and the DJIA performance of 18.92%. 

Bond ETF prices had a negative week, especially with the price decline on Friday.  This may be the end to the recent bond rally for the rest of the year.  Remember that a rise in interest rates will result in bond prices declining, even though you will receive your interest income. Type in ticker symbols TLT, BOND or JNK one at a time in first chart to see the current week’s decline.

NASI November 1, 2013

Indicator Review – No Changes This Week

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a miniscule MACD crossover on Friday.   A decline early next week will result in a definitive crossover and a SELL signal on this indicator.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest October 30 bullish percentage reading of 45.0% was lower than the October 23rd bullish percentage reading of 49.2%. Investors now are less bullish looking out six months ahead than they were a week earlier.  Remember if a weekly reading exceeds 50% and then drops below 50% in a subsequent week that is a SELL signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACDThe index crossed below its moving average on October 31st while the MACD has crossed down yet. Thus, this index will be on SELL signal if this crossover occurs this week. (Refer to second chart). 

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

 Dashboard-V2-November 1, 2013

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up about 7% but is well below that of the three major indexes where two of the averages have advanced more than triple that figure.  Note that four ETFs are left in the ETF portfolio as of the Friday close.

Top 5 ETFs – Invested

On Monday, October 28, 2013 IBB was purchased but was knocked out of the portfolio when its 3% trailing stop was hit.  XLY was its replacement.  On Friday XOP hit its 3% trailing stop and was sold. Since the Dashboard is very close to a NEUTRAL signal and perhaps and outright SELL signal no replacement ETF will be purchased at the current time.  Performance details are provided in the following link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking November 1, 2013

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that now only 16 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating compared to 32 last week.  This rapid decline indicates the market’s underlying weakness which could be the beginning of a multi-week decline.

Conclusion – Market Treads Water

The stock market advance slowed down this week.  The NASDAQ has been the laggard the past two weeks which is a negative.  Also, it is barely above support (see first chart).  If the NASDAQ cannot assume its leadership roll again soon, then this market rally may be on its last legs.

We are nearing a NEUTRAL and perhaps a Dashboard SELL signal this coming week if the market declines to start the week. This week two of the ETF portfolio members hit their 3% trailing stops and were sold, and another was sold the prior week.  This rapid turnover indicates that the market is changing direction. These losses had a negative impact on the year-to-date performance. With the market making substantial gains so far this year, the normally strong November to January historical performance may not occur as expected.

 

Oct 25

COMP October 25, 2013

Market Review

The stock market had a decent week with all the averages higher than the prior week with additional new yearly highs in the three major averages.  Economic news and earnings reports continue to impact the market’s performance with a few of the well-known NASDAQ components providing surprisingly strong earnings thus pushing up the index.  Indicator #8 had a BUY signal on the close of business October 22nd, as posted in the blog of that day.

All three indexes are above critical levels – S&P 500 above 1750, DJIA above 15500, and the NASDAQ Composite above 3900. However, for the week the NASDAQ had the weakest performance rising only 0.74%, followed by the S&P 500 gaining 0.88%, and the DJIA gaining the most at 1.11%.  So far year-to-date, the BDH ETF portfolio is up 9.20%, according to dark-liquidity.com.  This compares with the NASDAQ Composite’s 30.37% performance, S&P 500 performance of 23.20%, and the DJIA performance of 18.63%. 

Bond ETF prices continue to advance and have bounced back nicely from the early September lows, but are still down significantly from the May highs (type in TLT, BOND or JNK in first chart to see the uptrend).

NASI October 25, 2013

Indicator Review – Two Changes This Week

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a BUY signal on October 17th as the MACD crossed to the upside.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest October 23 bullish percentage reading of 49.2% was higher than the October 16th bullish percentage reading of 46.3%. Investors now are more bullish looking out six months ahead than they were a week earlier.  Remember if a weekly reading exceeds 50% and then drops below 50% in a subsequent week that is a SELL signal.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACDThe index crossed above its moving average on October 16th and the MACD crossed over on October 22nd. Thus, this index is now on a new BUY signal and appears in purple behind the indicator for ease of comparison to high and low points. (Refer to second chart). 

Dashboard on “3” BUY Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

 Dashboard-V2-October 25, 2013

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 9.20%, but is well below that of the three major indexes which have advanced more than double that figure.  Note that five ETFs were purchased at the open on October 23rd.

Top 5 ETFs – Invested

The Top 5 ETFs (PBW,QQQ,IWM,XOP,XLI) that had a “pass” rating were bought on the open on October 23, 2013, as mentioned in the interim blog posting on October 22nd .  On October 25, PBW hit its 3% trailing stop and was sold.  Also PBW has a “fail” rating on the BDH Decision Page.  On Monday, October 28 this ETF will be replaced with IBB at its opening price, as the Dashboard is on a BUY signal. Remember to put a stop in place on IBB after it is purchased.  Performance details are provided in the following link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking October 25, 2013

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that now 34 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating.  This number has not increased over the past week.

Conclusion – Market At New Highs in a Continued Advance

The stock market continues to ward off any bad news and marches higher. We did receive a BUY signal this past week so any further advance will be reflected in the ETF portfolio.  PBW had a bad week resulting in a 3% loss on that position so it was eliminated Friday.

 

Oct 22

NASI October 22, 2013As the market continues to work its way higher, it should be no surprise that Indicator #8′s MACD crossover occurred today.  As the NASDAQ Summation Index has previously penetrated its 5-day ema to the upside, this indicator is now on a BUY signal (refer to chart).  Therefore, the Dashboard changes from a NEUTRAL to a BUY mode as of today’s close.

The Top 5 ETFs with a ‘pass’ rating will be bought at the open on Tuesday morning.  Those ETFs are PBW, XOP, IWM, QQQ and XLI.  Refer to website:

http://www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/bdh-decision-page.php

Obviously, buying these ETFs as the market makes new highs is not ideal.  Therefore, tight stops are recommended in case the market begins to decline.  Remember that you are solely responsible for your investments.

A full report will be provided this coming weekend.

Oct 18

COMP October 18 2013

Market Review

Even though the stock market was on “Washington Circus” watch this past week it performed extremely well before and after the “temporary” settlement.  Both the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ Composite closed on Friday at new highs for the year, and the former at an all-time high.  The NASDAQ closed at a 13 year high, but still well below the 5048.62 high on March 10, 2000.  The DJIA was the laggard and is still below its August high.

The S&P 500 hit its previous high on Thursday and closed this week at 1744.48 a new high. Now it is well above the critical 1700 level again, as well as above its 50-dma, and nearing 1750.  The NASDAQ Composite crossed over 3900 this past week after a big run up helped by good earnings reports from a number of high tech stocks.

The NASDAQ continues to show the best performance for 2013.  This past week the NASDAQ Composite gained 3.23%, followed by the S&P 500 gaining 2.42%, and the DJIA gaining 1.07%.  So far year-to-date, the BDH ETF portfolio is up 9.02%, according to dark-liquidity.com.  This compares with the NASDAQ Composite’s 28.91% performance, S&P 500 performance of 21.90%, and the DJIA performance of 17.18%. 

Bond ETF prices have bounced back nicely from the early September lows, as well as this week, but are still down significantly from the May highs (type in TLT, BOND or JNK in first chart to see the uptrend).

NASI October 18 2013

Indicator Review – Two Changes This Week

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a BUY signal this past Thursday, October 17th  as the MACD crossed to the upside.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest October 16 bullish percentage reading of 46.3% was higher than the October 9th  bullish percentage reading of 41.3%. Investors now are more bullish looking out six months ahead than they were a week earlier. Since this indicator has not changed in the past six months, the reading was changed to a “0” this week effective on October 16.  This was a rule that we established early on and covered in the blog years ago.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACDThe index crossed above its moving average on October 16th and the MACD has not yet done so, although it is close to an upward crossover. Thus, this index is still on its prior SELL signal and appears in purple behind the indicator for ease of comparison to high and low points. (Refer to second chart). 

Dashboard on NEUTRAL Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

 Dashboard-V2-October 18, 2013

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 9.02%, but is well below that of the three major indexes which have advanced more than double that figure.  Note that all ETFs were sold at the open on October 8.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% in Cash

The Top 5 ETFs were sold on the open on October 8, 2013 as mentioned in the interim October 7 blog posting.  The portfolio is now in cash awaiting the next BUY signal. Performance details are provided in the following link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking October 18, 2013

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that now 34 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating.  This number has increased sharply this week due to the market’s solid performance.   

Conclusion – Market At New Highs in a Powerful Advance

The stock market continues to ward off any bad news and marches higher. We will wait for the next BUY signal which may occur this week if the market continues higher and Indicator #8 MACD triggers a BUY signal.

 

Oct 11

COMP October 11 2013

Market Review

The stock market was on the “Washington, DC” roller-coaster this past week.  It looked like a big wipeout early in the week through part of the day on Wednesday, but then the market reversed up, gapped higher on Thursday with the biggest gains of the year, and a further advance on Friday.  All this volatility was due to the real-time play-by-play unfolding in DC.  Any current action movie pales in comparison to the financial Olympics in Washington this past week.

The big down day on Monday resulted in a SELL signal on Indicator #5.  And the continued market decline on Tuesday resulted in a SELL signal on Indicator #8.  That leaves us with a Dashboard that is NEUTRAL with a “2” reading.  Unfortunately, the ETF portfolio was liquidated during the day on Monday as the 3% trailing stops kicked in on the five ETFs held.  That call was looking good through Wednesday.  However, the big gap opening on Thursday with the strong finish moved the market higher without our portfolio participating.

The S&P 500 also hit an all-time high of 1729.86 on September 27, but closed this week at 1703.19, after hitting 1646.47 intra-day on Wednesday. Now it is above the critical 1700 level again, as well as above its 50-dma.  The NASDAQ Composite hit 3650 this past week, but was able to close at 3791.87, a solid advance and above support at 3700 (see the first chart).  If this index exceeds 3819.28, a mere 27 points higher, it will be at new highs for the year. 

The NASDAQ continues to show the best performance for 2013.  This past week the NASDAQ Composite was the only loser declining 0.42%, followed by the S&P 500 gaining 0.95%, and the DJIA gaining 1.09%.  So far year-to-date, the BDH ETF portfolio is up 9.02%, according to dark-liquidity.com.  This compares with the NASDAQ Composite’s 25.68% performance, S&P 500 performance of 19.48%, and the DJIA performance of 16.11%. 

Bond ETF prices have bounced back nicely from the early September lows, but are still down significantly from the May highs (type in TLT, BOND or JNK in first chart to see the uptrend).

NASI October 11, 2013

Indicator Review – Two Changes This Week

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had two consecutive minimal MACD negative crossovers (-0.534) on Thursday and Friday, October 3 and 4, and a definitive crossover on October 7 resulting in a SELL signal reducing the Dashboard Signal to a“3” BUY from a “4” BUY.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest October 9 bullish percentage reading of 41.3% was higher than the October 2nd bullish percentage reading of 37.8%. Investors now are more bullish looking out six months ahead. Therefore, this indicator remains on its April 18th BUY signal.  Next week this indicator will be rated NEUTRAL as it has not changed in the past six months.

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACDThe index crossed below its moving average on Thursday, October 3, and the MACD did so on October 8 resulting in a SELL signal.  The index is shown in purple behind the indicator for ease of comparison to high and low points. (Refer to second chart). 

Dashboard Now on NEUTRAL Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

 Dashboard-V2-October 11, 2013

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 9.02% which has improved substantially from prior weeks, but is still below that of the three major indexes which have advanced smartly for the year.  Note that all ETFs were sold at the open on October 8.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% in Cash

The Top 5 ETFs were sold on the open on October 8 as mentioned in the interim October 7 blog posting.  The portfolio is now in cash awaiting the next BUY signal. Performance details are provided in the following link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking October 11, 2013 Revised

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that now only 5 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating down from prior weeks.  On Tuesday night this past week only 2 ETFs had a “pass” rating.  If the market continues to advance, then the number of ETFs passing will start to climb rapidly.  This will be another indication that the market is in a rally mode.

Conclusion – Market Recovering Its Midweek Losses

The stock market made a miraculous recovery in the past 2.5 days this week and closed strong for the week.  Where we go from here is any one’s guess.  Continued news out of  Washington, DC regarding the budget and debt ceiling will result in higher than normal volatility going forward and more uncertainty going forward until these issues are finally resolved.

 

 

Oct 08

COMP October 8 2013The stock market had two consecutive big down days this week so far, adding to the weakness shown the past two weeks.  Even the NASDAQ Composite got pummeled.  This has resulted in a SELL signal on Indicator #5 yesterday as the MACD crossed over to the downside resulting in a “3″ BUY signal from the previous “4″ maximum BUY reading.

In addition, Indicator #8 (Second Chart) is close to a sell signal as the MACD has almost crossed to the downside.  Another decline would result in a SELL signal on this indicator and a “2″ NEUTRAL reading on the Dashboard.

NASI October 8 2013The NASDAQ Composite in now below its 3700 resistance level (red horizontal line on first chart) and testing its 50-dma.

The entire Top 5 ETF portfolio was sold out intra-day on the trailing 3% stop.  The selling price of each ETF is as follows:

IBB $207.53
PBW $6.41
XRT $80.92
XLY $59.70
QQQ $77.37

Currently, the portfolio resides in cash as of today’s close.  A full report will be provided this coming weekend.

Oct 05

COMP October 4 2013

Market Review

Overall the bifurcated stock market continues to act sluggish, although the NASDAQ Composite continues to power ahead.  The financial Olympics in the Washington and the continued flare ups in the Middle East are weighing on the markets.  Continued uncertainty into October 17 will result in continued roller-coaster market moves.

The DJIA and S&P 500 advance has stalled in the past three weeks, However, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite has continued to advance in the past three consecutive weeks while the other two averages had an MACD downside reversal (key in the $SPX and $INDU symbols in the $COMPX chart) on September 27.  The DJIA made an all-time high above 15,700 on September 18 (Fed announcement day), but has given back over 700 points since then, and also crossed below both its 50-dma and 100-dma. 

The S&P 500 also hit an all-time high of 1730 on September 27, but closed this week at 1690.50,  still below the critical 1700 level and slightly above its 50-dma.  The NASDAQ Composite’s MACD did have slight downward crossover on Thursday and Friday at -0.534, but needs a more definitive crossover to be considered a sell signal on Indicator #5.  Moreover, this index appears to be consolidating just below the 3820 level (see green horizontal line on the first chart).  The number of 52-week NYSE highs rose to 342 from 294 from in the prior week. 

The NASDAQ continues to show the best performance for 2013.  This past week the NASDAQ Composite was the only winner for the second consecutive week gaining 0.69%, followed by the S&P 500 losing 0.07%, and lastly the DJIA losing 1.22%.  So far year-to-date, the BDH ETF portfolio is up 11.29%,  according to dark-liquidity.com.  This compares with the NASDAQ Composite’s 26.10% performance, S&P 500 performance of 18.53%, and the DJIA performance of 15.02%. 

Bond ETF prices have bounced back nicely from the early September lows, but are still down significantly from the May highs (type in TLT, BOND or JNK in first chart to see the uptrend).

NASI October 4 2013

Indicator Review – No Changes This Week

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had two consecutive minimal MACD negative crossovers (-0.534) on Thursday and Friday.  A sell signal is imminent if the index declines early in the week and the crossover amount exceeds 1.00. So be on the lookout for it this coming week. If it occurs, then the Dashboard Signal will drop to “3” BUY.

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest October 2  bullish percentage reading of 37.8% was slightly lower than the September 25th  bullish percentage reading of 36.1%. Investors now are much less bullish than they were three weeks ago looking out six months ahead. This indicator remains on its April 18th BUY

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACDThe index crossed below its moving average on Thursday.  The MACD has not yet done so.  When it does this indicator will be on a sell signal.  Be on the lookout for it this week.  The index is shown in purple behind the indicator for ease of comparison to high and low points. (Refer to second chart). 

Dashboard Remains on Maximum “4” BUY Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

 BDH Blog October 5, 2013

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 11.29% which has improved substantially from prior weeks, but is still below that of the three major indexes which have advanced smartly for the year.  Note that XLY has replaced XLV.

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

The Top 5 ETFs were bought on the open on September 10th as mentioned in the September 9th blog posting.  Performance details are provided in the following link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking October 4, 2013 Revised

As mentioned in my updated blog during the week, XLV dropped below rank 10 and was replaced by XLY.  The corrected data are in that blog’s Top ETF table, and of course in the current table.  Note that three of the currently held ETFs have “fail” ratings due to negative MACD crossovers.  They will be held until a Dashboard SELL signal is given, or drop below rank 10, or are sold based on 3% stops.

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that now only 6 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating down from 18 the previous week.  With the market’s weakening the number of ETFs showing “pass” ratings has begun to decline again from 27 three weeks ago.  Since their purchase, the Top 5 ETFs have gained 3.03% versus a gain of 1.08% for the averages. 

Conclusion – Market Stalling Out

The stock market is having trouble making progress as both the DJIA and S&P 500 are in short-term downtrends with negative MACD crossovers, while the NASDAQ Composite continues to move higher but nearing a similar crossover. Indicator #5 is extremely close to a SELL signal and Indicator #8 could follow if the NASDAQ prices decline this week.

Be careful and make sure you have your stop LIMIT orders in place to protect your profits.  News out of the Washington, DC regarding the budget and debt ceiling will likely result in higher than normal volatility going forward.

Note: I have a few month subscription to stockcharts.com which has enabled me to enhance the usual charts.  Hopefully, further improvements will be provided going forward.

 

Sep 29

comp September 27 2013

Market Review (with revision for Top 5 ETFs)

Overall the stock market advance has stalled in the past two weeks, after rising the week ending September 20 and falling this past week.  The NASDAQ Composite continued to advance the last two consecutive weeks while the other two averages have had a reversal to the downside (key in the $SPX and $INDU symbols in the $COMPX chart).  The DJIA made an all-time high above 15,700 on September 18 (Fed announcement day), but has given back 442 points since then and also crossed below its 50-dma.  The S&P 500 also hit an all-time high of 1730 that day, but closed this week at 1691.75, below the critical 1700 level.  You will note on those two charts that the MACD has crossed to the downside as of the Friday close.  On the other hand the NASDAQ Composite is holding its MACD positive crossover, but barely.  Moreover, this index appears to be consolidating just below the 3800 level (see first chart).

The number of 52-week NYSE highs fell to 294 from the prior week’s 515, not a positive sign.  Even though the market made new highs the week ending September 20, the number of new highs was 515 which was below that of 586 on July 19, another negative divergence.

The NASDAQ continues to show the best performance for 2013.  This past week the NASDAQ Composite was the only winner gaining 0.18%, followed by the S&P 500 losing 1.06%, and lastly the DJIA losing 1.25%.  So far year-to-date, the BDH ETF performance has been 10.13%,  according to dark-liquidity.com.  This compares with the NASDAQ Composite’s 25.24% performance, S&P 500 performance of 18.62%, and the DJIA performance of 16.44%. 

Bond ETF prices have bounced back nicely from the early September lows, but are still down significantly from the May highs (type in TLT, BOND or JNK in first chart to see the uptrend).

NASI September 27 2013

Indicator Review – No Changes This Week

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price well above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a discernible  positive MACD crossover on Monday September 9, thus triggering a BUY signal (refer to first chart).  Currently, a crossover to the downside is very close to happening.  So be on the lookout for it this coming week if the index declines in price.  

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest September 25th  bullish percentage reading of 36.1% was significantly lower than the September 18th  bullish percentage reading of 45.1%. Investors now are much less bullish than the prior week looking out six months. This indicator remains on its April 18th BUY

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACDThe indicator issued a BUYsignal as of September 10th  as both the Index and the MACD had positive crossovers.  (Refer to second chart).  Currently the index may be turning downward as indicated by the last day’s entry in red.

Dashboard Remains on Maximum “4” BUY Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

 Dashboard-V2-September 27, 2013

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 11.17% which has improved substantially from prior weeks, but is still below that of the three major indexes which have advanced smartly for the year.  Note that XLV has to be removed as it dropped below the 10th ranking on etfscreen.com, and replaced with XLY.  See my note below for a further explanation

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested

The Top 5 ETFs were bought on the open on September 10th as mentioned in the September 9th blog posting.  Currently, all except IBB are on a “pass” rating. On September 26, 2013 XLV declined below rank 10 and was sold at $50.42 the opening price on September 27.  XLY replaced it with a purchase at the open on September 27 at $60.64. Performance details are provided in the following link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking September 27, 2013

Since their purchase, the Top 5 ETFs have gained 1.70% versus a gain of 1.28% for the averages. 

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that now only 18 out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating down from 27 the week ending September 13th.  With the market’s weakening, the number of ETFs showing “pass” ratings has begun to decline again.

Conclusion – Market Stalling Out or Consolidating

The stock market is having trouble making progress as both the DJIA and S&P 500 are in short-term downtrends while the NASDAQ Composite continues to move higher. Indicator #5 is close to a SELL signal and Indicator #8 could follow if the NASDAQ prices decline this week.

Be careful and make sure you have your stop LIMIT orders in place to protect your profits.  News out of the Washington, DC regarding the budget and debt ceiling will likely result in higher than normal volatility this week.

Sep 20

COMP September 20 2013Market Review

The stock market had another solid week, but ended on a down note on Friday.  Due to other priorities, I will not be able to provide a blog this weekend.  Suffice it to say that the market is in an uptrend, the Top 5 ETF portfolio is increasing in value, and there is no sign of a correction.  Remember to have stop LIMITs in place in case of a market reversal.

The next blog will be posted the weekend of September 28.  Have a great week.

Sep 14

COMP September 13 2013

Market Review

The stock market experienced a second week of solid advances after a four week decline caused by mixed economic news and the potential U.S. involvement in Syria.   Interestingly, this week the weak big blue chips, as represented by the DJIA, have had one of their best weeks in months rising a 3.04% while the NASDAQ Composite was the worst performer gaining a respectable 1.70%.  With the lessening in tension about an immediate Syria escalation, the market forged ahead.  This week is the Fed’s meeting (not last week as mentioned in error in last weekend’s blog) which will impact the market’s direction.

The number of 52-week NYSE highs picked up nicely to 364 compared to 170 issues the prior week, but they are still well below the 586 on July 19. Moreover, the S&P 500 Index is now only about 1% away from its August 2 high, but still below the critical 1700 level. The DJIA jumped 454 points this week easily vaulting over the 15000 level.  And the NASDAQ Composite closed at 2013 highs during the week solidly above 3700 (horizontal red line on chart).

The NASDAQ continues to show the best performance for 2013.  This past week the NASDAQ Composite was the weakest performer gaining 1.70%, followed by the S&P 500 gaining 1.98%, and lastly the DJIA gaining a whopping 3.04%.  So far year-to-date, the BDH ETF performance is 8.02% according to dark-liquidity.com.  This compares with the NASDAQ Composite’s 23.27% performance, S&P 500 performance of 18.36%, and the DJIA performance of 17.34%.Bond ETF prices stabilized this week, but have lost ground since early May.

NASI September 13 2013

Indicator Review – Two BUY Signals This Week

Indicator #2 NASDAQ Composite Index and 100-dma.  This indicator remains on its January 3 BUY signal with the index price above its 100-dma. (Refer to first chart). 

Indicator #5 NASDAQ Composite with MACD.  This indicator had a discernible  positive MACD crossover on Monday September 9, thus triggering a BUY signal (refer to first chart) that was presented in the September 9th intra-week blog post.  

Indicator #6 AAII Weekly Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage.  The latest September 11th bullish percentage reading of 45.5% was significantly higher than the September 4th  bullish percentage reading of 35.5%. Investors now are much more bullish than the prior week looking out six months. This indicator remains on its April 18th BUY signal and will not issue a SELL signal until it rises above 50% and then declines below that level. 

Indicator #8 NASI Summation Index and MACDThe indicator issued a BUY signal as of September 10th  as both the Index and the MACD had positive crossovers.  (Refer to second chart). 

Dashboard Now on Maximum “4” BUY Signal

The latest Dashboard data is presented in the link below:

Dashboard-V2-September 13, 2013

A chart of the buy and sell signals is presented here:

 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50034199149&a=250074893

Dark Liquidity BDH Performance Statistics

www.dark-liquidity.com/BDHV2new.php independently tracks the BDH performance. The Dashboard ETF portfolio year-to-date is up 8.02% which has improved substantially from prior weeks, but is still below that of the three major indexes which have advanced smartly the past two weeks. 

Top 5 ETFs – 100% Invested as of September 10th open

The Top 5 ETFs were bought on the open on September 10th as mentioned in the September 9th blog posting. These included IBB, PBW, XRT, XLV and QQQ.  Currently, all except XRT are on a “pass” rating. Performance details are provided in the following link:

Top 5 ETF Tracking September 13, 2013

Since their purchase, the Top 5 ETFs are down 1.86% versus a gain of 0.93%  for the averages.  The NASDAQ Composite was actually down from the open on September 10 compared to the Friday’s closing price.

Note that on the etfscreen.com/buydonthold Decision page that now 27out of 42 ETFs have a “pass” rating from 15 on September 9th .  With the market’s strong advance the number of ETFs showing “pass” ratings have soared.

Conclusion – Market Moving Higher

The stock market advanced the past two weeks, resulting in a September 9th  Dashboard BUY signal as both Indicators #5 and #8 issued buy signals during this past week.  The Dashboard is on a maximum “4” BUY signal.  The S&P 500 and DJIA appear to be headed to test their August 2 highs, while the NASDAQ has already surpassed that level this week.  Be careful and make sure you have your stop LIMIT orders in place in case the market reverses.