Frequently Asked Questions
This section will be composed of two parts. Part 1 will answer the most commonly asked reader/blogger questions about the book’s strategy. This section is critical to your understanding of how to invest using the Stock Market Dashboard,
Part 2 focuses on an interview with me regarding the focus and content of the book.
Part 1. Commonly Asked Questions
Q. You introduced a simpler version of the Dashboard in your blog posting of March 12, 2011. Why did you do that?
After a careful review of the Dashboard’s performance and blogger comments, I decided to make the Dashboard more senstive to market conditions while retaining four of the eight indicators. The report that I wrote and analysis performed are inlcuded in the the link below:
Q. A revised list of 52 ETFs was posted to the blog (Part II) on April 21, 2012. This has replaced the original listing on pages 89 through 92 and page 171 (Appendix 6.1). The link for that list is as follows:
Q. Do you have a chart of the V2 signals since inception? Yes, here is the link:
Q. You introduced a Decision Page on www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold on November 24, 2012. Where can I find that page?
There is also a full description of the rationale and details of the changes in this descriptive memo:
Q. I bought the Kindle or Nook version of your book, but the charts and exhibits appear hard to read. Do you have any suggestions?
A. Yes. Assuming your purchased the Kindle edition on Amazon, you can obtain the free PC software from the Amazon website and download a free e-copy of the book to your PC. You can view the entire book including all charts and tables in much larger format.
Q. In reading your blog, I noticed that there have been a number of changes made to the Dashboard, and in particular to a few indicator critical value’s, since the book’s publication. Have you put all the changes in one place where I can easily reference them?
A. Yes, they are provided in this FAQ further down. I suggest that you print out those changes so that you have them handy and can easily reference them. All these and any other changes will be included in future reprints of the book, and will be uploaded to the Kindle edition as well as early as possible.
Q. Can you please explain how to interpret the Dashboard posted on the blog?
A. The original Stock Market Dashboard was developed to provide investors with either a “buy” or a “sell” signal for the stock market. It was composed of eight indicators; each assigned an equal value of +1 if it on a buy signal or -1 if it is on a sell signal, as explained in detail in the book. All the indicators are evaluated each week and their values are aggregated. When there is a composite reading of +3 that is a “buy” signal, and a reading of -3 is a “sell” signal.
I originally posted a summary of the Dashboard indicators that on the blog in both WORD and EXCEL format. Bob Leitner, one of the contributors to the blog, came up with the format so I decided to use it and name it after him. I enhanced it by adding a notes section at the bottom which indicates each indicator’s current reading so that everyone can determine if they have the same readings so that we are all on the same page.
At the top of the Dashboard were the numbers 1 through 8 that correspond to the indicator numbers on the revised Table 5.2 (see June 13 blog part 2 and print it out for future reference). I didn’t place the descriptive name of each indicator, as I wanted to keep that information restricted for readers of the blog rather than the general public.
Under each indicator in the next row is its current value that is +1, -1 or “0”. The next row indicates the date of the latest signal. And the last row indicates a “Future Date” for indicators #3, #4 and #6. This date refers to the date on which this indicator’s value will change to “0” from its current reading, if the signal does not change to the opposite value over that six-month period. If it hasn’t changed for this period then I consider it neutral. Note that only those three indicators have a “0” value. Of course, if the indicator has an additional signal in the same direction it currently is valued at, then the six-month future date will be extended six months from that confirmation signal date.
When I revised the Dashboard on March 12, 2011, I renamed it Version 2 (V2). And now it contains only four indicators. I post my blog with the V2 Dashboard on weekends. The scoring system has also been changed from the original methodology. Now a +3 or +4 reading is a “buy” signal and a +1 or 0 reading is a sell signal. A reading of +2 requires no action. The full explanation of this revised V2 Dashboard and backtesting results are provided in the March 12, 2011 blog.
Q. The numbering of the original eight indicators in the text is different than that on Table 5.2 on page 132 of the book. Which numbering scheme are you using in the blog?
A. Table 5.2 indicator numbers are to be used, NOT those in the text. Also, since the publication of the book, a number of the Critical High/Low Values in Table 5.2 have been adjusted. The revised Table 5.2 new table can be found in the blog mentioned above as well as at the following URL:
Please make a hard copy of this table and refer to it when viewing the posting of the Dashboard. This is the only source to be used for the indicators and their critical values.
Q. How often and when will you be posting the Dashboard results?
A. The current schedule is to update the Dashboard readings weekly on weekends. If there is a Dashboard signal change in direction during the week, then I will post on that day after the market close.
Q. How can be informed if there is a blog posting midweek or at any other time?
On all the pages, except the blog page, there is a small yellow “RSS” button on the right side of the page. Sign up for the automatic feed and you will receive an email when a posting is made.
Q. For risk management purposes you advise diversifying with asset allocation models. In your book, you indicated that an investor should sell ALL holdings when the Dashboard composite signals a downturn in the stock market. Does this also include selling all bond positions?
A. The Dashboard Composite “buy” or “sell” signal only refers to the equity positions not to bond positions. I did not make that clear in my book and I apologize. In a long-term declining market, the bond ETFs will usually rise to the top portion of the relative strength screen. Bond ETFs can be bought as a core position based on your risk tolerance and diversification needs, and kept in the portfolio permanently. Also consider using a tight stop limit order to protect your principal for each bond ETF. Another approach is to sell any bond ETF if it crosses below it 20 day moving average.
Q. What are the back-tested results of the Dashboard using the ETF strategy that you proposed with the top-ranked six-month relative strength?
A. The back-tested report and tables were provided in the June 7, 2010 blog. The test was conducted on the entire ETF universe provided in the book, rather than the individual categories of style, sector, international and fixed income. The results are composed of five separate PDF files — a full report of the methodology and findings and then four separate data tables. Adobe Reader is needed to open each file. There was a mathematical error in the original Table 2 in the June 7 blog that has been corrected in Table 2 below (The original report has also been revised to take into account that change.
With the change to the V2Dashboard, I provided backtest results and a report in the March 12 blog posting.
Q. How has the original Dashboard performed since its first live signal on April 27, 2010 ?
The original Dashboard outperformed buy-and-hold by 2.23 percentage points since April 27, 2010, while being out of the market 75% of the time. Here is the link to the data:
Q. What was the Dashboard V2 performance in 2011?
The 2011 results are provided in this WORD link:
Q. Is there a way to view each of the original indicators on stockcharts.com in just a few minutes, instead of the more detailed approach shown on pages 126-131 of the book?
A. Yes. I’m pleased to provide a few short cuts provided by two blog contributors. First, here is the contribution of Hugos with a few slight editorial changes:
When using www.stockcharts.com, one does not need to key in each indicator every time the site is accessed. Just type in $ into the quote box and the ticker symbol for each indicator. Next time you open the site all the previously keyed in ticker symbols will come up. Highlight the one you want. You can use the following changes to obtain each indicator:
1. $NYA50R; hit “update” Les note: This site replaces the www.indexindicators.com source in the book.)
2. $COMPQ; overlays: Simple Moving Average 100; hit “update”
3. $NYHL; “update” (Les note: Still need to go to Barron’s site to obtain % of stocks making new highs. See next Q&A for the link)
4. $BPNYA. Create new chart: P&F chart; GO
5. $COMPQ; indicators: MACD; hit “update”
6. (Les note: go to http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results.cfm
7. (Les note: type in $SPX ; hit “update”): MACD comes up automatically
8. $NASI; overlays: Look for Exponential Moving Average instead of simple moving average and use 5 days; indicators: MACD; hit “update”
Another blogger, Drew provides his www.stockcharts.com approach:
Here’s another trick that can save even more time on stockcharts.com. Once you get a chart set up for an indicator, click on the “linkable version” link under the chart. The chart then refreshes with a URL you can permanently bookmark or hyperlink.
For instance, here is the chart I use for Indicator #1:
Q. Where can I find the AAII Sentiment survey data for Indicator #6?
A. This data is updated weekly by AAII on Thursday mornings. You can go directly to their website at www.aaii.com and look for the sentiment data. The other choice is to go directly to the spreadsheet that they provide at:
Another source is Barron’s: http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-investorsentimentreadings.html
Q. Are there any other discount brokerage firms that you can recommend, in addition to those on page 93 in Appendix 4.1
A. Harry, one of the contributors to the blog recommended that another one be considered. It is OptionsHouse.com where stock trades cost only $2.95/trade. I am not familiar with this firm, so you should check it out compared to the others in the appendix.
Also Vanguard, Scottrade, TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab and Fidelity offer free trades on a certain universe of ETFs with certain limitations. Check it out on their websites.
Q. Which site do you recommend for determining the ETF relative strength rankings?
A. I recommend www.etfscreen.com/buydonthold/ . This site provides a breakdown of all the ETF portfolios I recommend. Just go to the left side of the page and click on the portfolio you are interested in. This site is updated daily as well as intraday.
Part 2. Interview with Leslie N. Masonson
Q. Can you define the buy-and-hold strategy?
A. Buy-and-hold is a long-term investing strategy put forth by the mutual fund industry, brokerage firms, financial advisors and many well-known investment professionals such as John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Funds. The strategy is simple. Its main tenet is to buy a diversified group of stocks, mutual funds or ETFs, rebalance the portfolio typically once a year, and not sell during market downturns. Many proponents also recommend continual dollar-cost averaging monthly or quarterly with new money, especially with retirement accounts. That’s it in a nutshell.
Q. Please explain your book’s title and why you believe buy-and hold is a failed strategy?
A. The title is the exact opposite of buy-and-hold. In my view based on my 50 years of analyzing, researching, trading and investing in the stock market, buy-and-hold is not the way for savvy investors to build and retain wealth. If you never sell, then you never sell your winners, then you never book your profits. Successful investing requires not only taking periodic profits, but also and stepping aside into cash when the market reaches outlandish valuations or extreme peaks based on what reality would suggest. Although the stock market rises about 70% of the time, by default it falls 30% of the time. Why would you stay invested as the market is falling? That is an irrational decision.
Wall Street firms and many advisors firmly believe that there is no way to know or predict when the market will rise or fall. Therefore, they promote the buy-and-hold approach as the only viable way to make money over the long-term. Unfortunately, as investors have found out the hard way, buy-and-hold is a dangerous and antiquated strategy that is not appropriate in today’s complex global financial marketplace. Moreover, as this book explains in detail there is a way to determine market tops and bottoms with a high degree of accuracy that can be used to the investor’s advantage.
As an example of the futility of using buy-and-hold, just look at the last decade where most investors did not make any money, and many are behind where they started because of two devastating market crashes. In 2000, if your investment advisor had told you that you would obtain a better total return by purchasing municipal bonds or bond funds and holding for 10 years than investing in the volatile S&P 500 index fund, you would probably have thought he was crazy and out of touch with reality. Guess what, the munibonds did better on a total return basis than the S&P 500 with much less risk. Of course, no one can predict which asset class will do well in the future, but there are ways to determine where you money should be invested using relative strength analysis with exchange-traded funds, as explained in the book.
Q. What is the core value proposition of your book?
A. Buy – DON’T Hold provides not only the justification for permanently abandoning the antiquated and risky buy-and-hold approach, but more importantly provides a practical straightforward step-by-step investing roadmap that any interested investor can use to produce consistent returns with less risk. Investors need to understand that investing success requires not only a good offensive strategy during market up trends, but also more importantly a good defensive strategy that protects capital during down trends.
Buy and hold investors hope for the best over the long-term, but unfortunately, every three to four years, like clockwork, bear markets crush their portfolios. In the last decade there were two devastating bear markets that wiped out 50% of investor portfolio values, not once but twice. These huge losses resulted in millions of investors having to delay their retirement plans, postpone funding of college education for children and grandchildren, and delay life’s many joys.
Q. How would you describe your approach to investing?
A. I use a controlled, systematic, non-emotional, rule-based investing approach that follows a specific written investment plan. I follow the market trend, then invest in a basket of diverse ETFs using relative strength analysis when the trend is up and go into cash when the trend is down. I also use stop limit ordersand trailing stops as a further way to minimize any losses.
I do not invest in individual stocks or mutual funds. I do not listen to stock market experts or gurus or invest emotionally. I use a simple yet effective approach that tells me when to be invested and when to be in cash. That’s the way to build wealth going forward.
Q. What are the keys for successful investing?
A. The most important decision an investor needs to make upfront is to decide whether to manage his/her own investments as a self-directed investor or use a financial advisor or advisory service. My book focuses on helping self-directed investors.
The first key for the self-directed investor is determining his/her “true” risk tolerance whether it is conservative, moderate or aggressive. Certainly, an investor has a much clearer idea of their risk tolerance after experiencing two bear markets in the past decade.
The second key is determining when the market is changing direction from an uptrend to a downtrend and vice versa. This is discerned by using my unique Stock Market Dashboard — a multiple indicator measurement tool to determine whether to invest or be in cash on the sidelines. As you can imagine, investing against the market trend can be extremely hazardous to your wealth.
The third key is to use the most practical and least expensive investment vehicles available — exchange traded funds. I provide a select group of exchange-traded funds to take advantage of market conditions, whether bullish or bearish. Finally, the last key is to use a relative strength analysis tool that is provided to pinpoint the best performing ETFs for investment. Buy—DON’T Hold provides all the critical information an investor needs to invest successfully in turbulent markets, along with free websites to keep current on the market’s changing conditions.
Q. What benefits will readers gain from your book?
A. The benefits of the book to the reader are as follows:
- Being in complete control of investments of his/her investments, as a self-directed investor
- Accurately determining your own risk tolerance
- Investing with less risk
- Reducing your portfolio risk and limiting losses
- Avoiding the brunt of future bear markets
- Taking the emotion out of the investing equation
- Eliminating the need to seek outside investment advice
- Spending one hour or less a week on monitoring investments
- Learning how to effectively use ETFs
- Not having to worry about the daily market fluctuations
- Being able to invest both long and short (without using margin)
- Learning how to use inverse ETFs in bear markets in retirement and non-retirement accounts to build portfolio returns
- Knowing where to obtain the free websites for charting, indicators, ETF details and relative strength screening
Q. What exactly do you cover in your book?
Buy and Don’t Hold addresses the subject of self-directed active investing from a multi-faced factual approach. This book:
- Provides a detailed look at the discredited buy-and-hold mantra comparing the risks and rewards of each approach.
- Debunks the buy-and-hold mantra as too risky, undisciplined and very costly.
- Mentions that stock fundamental analysis is unnecessary as ETFs are purchased
- Provides a non-emotional tool called the “Stock Market Dashboard”, using multiple indicators, to determine when to be invested and when to cash in your chips
- Provides step- by-step guide to making successful investments
- Recommends that investors use only selected ETFs as invest vehicles instead of individual securities or mutual funds
- Provides a momentum investing strategy using relative strength analysis to select the highest probability investing vehicles
- Provides information on investing software packages, useful and free Internet websites, and comprehensive bibliography.
Q. Why do you recommend that investors use ETFs instead of stocks and mutual funds for their portfolios?
A. First of all, stock investing is extremely risky, much more so than investing in actively managed mutual funds. Even with a diversified portfolio of 10 or 20 stocks, a bad earnings report or bad news in a stock’s industry group, or an unsubstantiated rumor can cut a stock’s price by 25% in a matter of minutes. Even if a few stocks in the portfolio drop by a large percentage, the overall portfolio performance will probably under perform a suitable benchmark.
Also, an investor needs to be financially knowledgeable about accounting and financial matters to understand a company’s annual report (especially the footnotes and financial data. Jim Cramer on his Mad Money Show on CNBC and in his books recommends that investors do their homework before buying a stock. Does he really believe that the average investor can interpret company financial reports and understand the risks? I certainly don’t believe they can do that. Therefore, I recommend that investors not buy individual stocks.
Any investor who scans the financial reports of companies and expects to be a profitable investor based solely on this fundamental analysis will be disappointed, as the volatile markets will make mince meat of most stocks in a market downturn.
Turning to mutual funds, most managers must remain fully invested all the time, so no matter how smart they are, they have no place to hide in a bear market. That is the problem with mutual funds, in general, they can’t be defensive. Of course, they may be able to raise their cash positions for redemptions to 10%, but that’s about it.
Moreover, most active managers do not beat their passive benchmark, or if they do are not able to do so consistently. Additionally, active stock mutual funds have annual operating expense ratios around 1.4% which does not include their portfolio transaction fees, some of which equate to 1% or more. Thus total annual fees are about 2.4%. Compounded over many years, these fees eat into the fund’s performance. Index funds, on the other hand have much lower annual operating expense rations, usually below 0.5% and their portfolio turnover is minimal.
ETFs are the investment vehicles of choice based upon their wide choice (over 800 ETFs in all asset classes), index format, low expense ratios and low portfolio turnover, complete transparency, low bid-ask spreads, and instant liquidity. As such they are much preferred to standard mutual funds. Moreover, ETFs are tradable during the day like stocks and have no upfront or back-end loads or redemption fees based upon the share class or length of time invested.
Q. Can you explain what you mean by relative strength analysis and why you find it useful for successful investing?
A. In 1969 Robert Levy authored a book on relative strength analysis. I’ve been fascinated by the subject ever since. It is a simple concept to understand. Let me give you an example to explain it. If you look at the universe of the S&P 100 stocks at the close of business on Friday afternoon each week and rank the stocks from top to bottom based on their price performance over the past six months, you will have a list of the best to worst performers. If you ranked them on a scale of 99 to 1, the strongest stock will have a relative strength of 99, the next one 98, all the way down to 1 for the worst performing stock.
If you buy the top 10 ranked stocks and hold them as long as they remain above a 70 ranking for example, your performance going forward should be better than buying the weakest 10 stocks, assuming the market is in an uptrend. Once any of the stocks drops below the 70-percentile ranking you sell them and buy the strongest stock to replace it.
There have been numerous studies on the value of relative strength investing by Charles Kirkpatrick, Jr., Robert W. Colby and others whom have all found it to be one of the few key variables to selecting winning investments. Also Investors Business Daily uses relative strength in their rating system for determining the top stocks.
Q. Does using relative strength mean that you are always invested in the stock market, since there will always be ETFs that will be ranked at the top of the list no matter if the market is rising or falling?
A. Definitely, not. If the Stock Market Dashboard is on a “sell” signal, no long ETFs should be purchased. Of course, aggressive investors may decide to purchase inverse ETFs which rise when the market falls. When the dashboard reverses to a “buy” signal, the top ETFs can be bought and the inverse ones sold, if previously purchased.
Q. How do you determine the market’s trend? Moreover, according to the experts no one can predict where the market is going. So how do you know when the trend is permanently changing and it is time to invest or go to a cash position?
A. The key to profitable investing is to invest only when the market trend is favorable, and to exit the market when it is not. As Marty Zweig, a well-known investment manager, and others are noted for saying “the trend is your friend.”
The trend can be determined in many different ways. I use a composite index of four technical indicators to identify extreme readings that signal when the market is potentially overbought and ripe for a correction or oversold or ripe for a rebound. The process is mechanical and can be done in 5 minutes once a week. Using one indicator can lead to many false signals (called whipsaws) and result in extra commissions and more trades which are to be avoided, if possible. Therefore, the use of multiple indicators works best.
I explain each indicator, where to obtain the data free of charge on the Internet, and how to interpret it. The Dashboard is not predicting the future. It is just indicating that the market has reached an extreme point where it typically has changed direction in the past. We are trying to put the odds in our favor that the market will move in the opposite direction once the indicators move in the same direction.
We never know in advance when the trend will change or if the latest trend change is permanent (for many months or years) or short-term (a few weeks or months), but at least we jump on board or jump out if the composite signal indicates it is time to do so.
Q. Can you give me a few examples you use in the composite indicator?
A. Certainly. One of the simplest indicators is the moving average. I use a chart of 100-day simple moving average on the NASDAQ Composite Index, since that index tends to lead the overall stock market in both up and down markets. When the index price crossed the moving average line from above, that is considered a “sell” signal and vice versa. This indicator will not get you out at the exact top or in at the exact bottom, but it works well. For example, this indicator gave a sell signal in early September 2008 and a buy signal in late March 2009, certainly a timely signal to be out of the market and back in for the ride up.
Another indicator I use is weekly the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Index. It measures the bullish or bearish opinions of many of its magazine subscribers. When the percentage of bulls reaches 50% or more and then retreats that is considered a “sell” signal. Likewise, when that statistic falls to 25% or below and then rises, that is a “buy” signal. Since both of these numbers are extreme reading this indicator is considered a contrary indicator.
Q. Based on the devastating stock market’s poor performance during 2008 through March 9, 2009, do you believe that the drop in their portfolio values shocked most investors? Do you think they were fully aware of their risk tolerance?
A. Yes, investors were totally upset and baffled by the market drop. Moreover, I don’t think shell-shocked investors really thought much about their risk tolerance until the markets got crushed. Any investor who sold out their stocks or stock mutual funds at or near the market lows in October/November 2008 or March 2009 needs to reassess their risk tolerance to determine if it is appropriate.
Determining one’s investment risk is such a critical element of successful investing that I devoted an entire chapter to it in my book. Most investors have not adequately spent the time necessary to really look at risk and how their investments are structured to determine if their investment mix meets their current risk mindset.
Investors need to first determine their investing time horizon for their regular and retirement brokerage accounts. They then need to assess the amount of risk they feel comfortable with in each type of account. Typically, the lower the risk level the higher the percentage of bonds should be placed in the portfolio.
Conservative investors should consider a fairly large position in bonds ranging between 30% -70% depending on their age. This would have cushioned the market’s (S&P 500) devastating losses in 2008 (-37%), and early 2009 (-25%). Moderate or aggressive investors would have had a much lower bond component and thus experienced heavier losses than conservative investors. Those investors most likely experienced negative emotions during the market’s decline and hopefully didn’t panic and sell at the bottom. If they did sell, then they are now feeling just as bad that they missed the sensational rally since the market lows.
Q. Why do you think investors lose money in the stock market, even in cases when it is rising?
A. There are many reasons investors lose money including:
- having no invest plan or rules
- having no specific buy and sell criteria and never taking periodic profits
- not monitoring the market using charts to determine any change to the market trend
- believing that buy-and-hold will somehow workout to build their wealth
- getting emotionally involved in making investment decisions
- buy stocks and mutual funds based on so-called expert advice, tips, newsletter recommendations or cable TV stock market shows
Q. There are over now 800 ETFs compared to a handful just tens years ago. How does an investor interested in ETFs decide which ones to invest in?
A. There are many informative websites, newsletters and books that explain ETFs in great detail and provide a breakdown of all the choices available. However, selecting the ones for investing can be a daunting task unless the investor has some type of accurate and timely analytical approach.
In my book, I have filtered the universe of 800 ETFs down to 66 which represent different segments of the market including style, sector, country, fixed income, specialty and a few inverse funds. I also provide numerous websites for additional information.
Q. Now that you’ve limited the ETF universe how do you determine which ones to invest in and when to invest in them?
A. That’s the easy part. I supply two free websites that anyone can use can rank the ETFs based on relative strength using the selected EFT universe. The investor can either pick the a few top ETFs in each of the segments mentioned in the last paragraph or invest in the top 15 ETFs in the entire universe out of the 74. Of course, the investor would invest only when the Stock Market Dashboard indicated a bullish condition.
Q. Do you advocate the use of stop limit orders and trailing stops to minimize losses and protect profits, respectively.
A. Yes. Think of stops as an easy way to protect your capital. Investors can use a fixed percentage such as 7-10% on standard ETFs or 15-20% on more volatile ETFs, depending on their risk tolerance. Another approach is to use the Average True Range to determine the stop amount, or to use candlestick patterns or other technical indicator such as support or resistance, trend line or moving breaks, or other methods.
Q. As a financial advisor what did you learn about your clients’ investing knowledge and performance?
A. I found that most individuals have a very limited knowledge of how investments work, what choices they have, how risky they are, what their risk tolerance is, and in general how to make investment decisions. Of course, a handful of investors were very knowledgeable and know exactly what they are doing. Most investors have ridden the market up and down and are now confused and scared about the future performance of their investments and the economy.
I wrote this book to provide investors who wants to control their own investments with a specific action plan. Hopefully, investors will see the light and master the approach I recommend or find one on their own that meets their needs and personality.
Q. What is your investment background?
A. I have been researching, investing and trading the stock market for many decades. I have written two previous books on investing. Also, I have a BBA in Finance and Investments, and an MBA. I’m also permanently Certified Cash Manager. Moreover, my most recent experience has been as a Financial Advisor for the most recent six years. You can refer to my complete biography in the About the Author tab.
The information offered on this site is for educational purposes only. Investing and trading involves risk and the user is solely responsible for any investing or trading decisions that he or she undertakes. Historical stock market performance is no indication of future results. Although the author has taken every precaution to present accurate data, he assumes no liability for errors or omissions. It is offered without warranty of any kind. All concepts and ideas presented should be taken as points of departure for the individual’s own research. You are responsible for your own investment/trading decisions. Recommendations are made without any consideration of your personal financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon, or risk tolerance. Investments recommended may not be appropriate for all investors. Use of this material constitutes your acceptance of these terms.